The results of a poll by Republican Carl Paladino's campaign are in and New Yorkers want a new independent party to be called the Taxed Enough Already (T.E.A.) Party.
The next step for Paladino's campaign and many other groups is forming this party. That will require hundreds of volunteers gathering signatures for a new party line. If it is formed, the fractures among voters will be felt on Election Day.
It seems that a growing number of people want to vote for anyone but the usual suspects.
The Disenfranchised Arrive
I predict 10-15 percent of New Yorkers will be voting on this line, drawing the lion's share of the votes from the Democrat and Independence Parties. The Conservative Party will survive because it has a solid platform. The Independence Party is in trouble.
Some political math:
35-50 percent of the American public votes in most elections. New York tends to have less residents voting, so it's safe to say that 50-65 percent of New York doesn't vote with any regularity.
I am not going to do a Glenn Beck but imagine a semi-circle from the middle to the right and the left. Somewhere at the bottom of that uncompleted circle is a lot more voters who feel disenfranchised on the right and the left. Some are rightful libertarians. Some are anarchists. Others are socialists or leftists in search of a European country.
As for the conservative side of the spectrum, I am not listing all the issues and all the complaints. Those voters have three places to go: Republican, Conservative and Tea Party lines.
If Republicans lose any ground, it's their own gosh darn fault.
Just refer to the Republican National Committee's platform and all the parts of that platform ignored by a cross-section of Republican leaders in New York and other places.
That's part of the problem ...
... In addition to the fact that economics is finally driving parts of those 50-65 percent of New Yorkers who rarely vote out to vote.
The other problem?
Many Democrats are either staying home or voting for Republicans because they're tired of the liberals and leftists controlling their party.
But they don't won't to vote on the Republican line. They're not alone.
Traditionally, 5-10 percent vote on Conservative Party line. Slightly more, depending on the election and the candidate vote on the Independence Party line. That's 10-20 percent whose sentiments don't belong to a major party. Many were fed up over 30 years ago; before Reagan, before Gingrich and long before tea parties.
Remember Ross Perot?
Carl Paladino is Ross Perot with guts and a lot more than charts and graphs.
Paladino is appealing to the social and fiscal conservatives. He's found a language with the disenfranchised.
What's interesting is how this Conservative/Independence split could flow on Election Day. The evacuation of one or both of these parties is being predicted, though the departure of many voters from the Democrat and Republican lines is more imminent.
Liberal Republicans are predicting the end of the Conservative Party. Reformers are predicting the end of the Independence Party. There seems to be a 20 percent political pot of gold waiting for some independent candidate that will be gained at the expense of someone else's vote totals.
The problem is that the independent vote is ideologically nomadic.
Three Tea Parties: Split Political Personality
The question is where the escaping Democrats and Republicans will go.
Also, a growing swell of independent voters want to vote on a new line.
Why?
They don't trust existing party leaders. They either don't like the social issues being discussed at all -- or only want to discuss social issues. It's the economy and fiscal issues that are driving couch potatoes out their chairs, not abortion or gun control. However, it's the enthusiasm of social conservatives finding common ground with Constitutionalists and privacy rights libertarians that has fueled the tea party's momentum.
Where is this all going?
There will be three tea party movements but there will be one Tea Party line. Count on a third to a half of the independent voters within the tea party movement voting Conservative and the rest split between Independence and Tea Party lines.
Fiscal reformers, social conservatives and privacy-obsessed libertarians don't see eye to eye. In terms of political structures, high taxes help people forget their differences with other fringe movements. But there are stark differences.
For example, why is there a movement to legalize marijuana within so many tea party organizations?
Radical opportunism explains part of that fringe, including Sarah Palin and Ron Paul playing to these sentiments. It's playing to the crowd but what crowd?
Another example, how does a pacifist crowd drawing anti-war support mind-meld so well with the Constitutionalists?
Some of those Constitutionalists are isolationalist and some of those isolationists have leaders who cater on occasion to bigotry and separatist "know-nothing" ideals. So are they Constitutionalists concerned about the war on terror or a new generation of anti-war activists not interested in fighting this war on terror?
Then there is abortion, "settled law" for some and murder for others.
Those advocating the right to bear arms have a party line to vote on: The New York State Conservative Party. Those advocating the right to life also can vote Conservative. However, the fringe issues of tea parties could end up being an island of lost ideas.
It's likely that the Independence Party will be the big loser this year.
As for future elections, this French Revolution will have a lot of Robespierres.
As the local taxes are higher due to less Federal and State aid, will the tea party revolts continue outside our local municipal halls? Democrats are banking on that day. Republicans with sense are already doing the math and understand how a reverse "trickle-down" could cause further anarchy at the polls.
All I know is that Carl Paladino and a new party are drawing from a voting public with a split personality on many issues. The Buffalo businessman can be applauded for being the most ideologically consistent candidate running for governor but the movement supporting him has fractures just waiting to happen.
As for the tea party movement, where will all those voters go?

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