News Copy, New York

Wanted -- Congressional Candidates -- Experience Not Necessary: Politicians Need Not Apply

The Wall Street Journal highlighted Staten Island's Mike Grimm among a growing number of newcomers being recruited to capitalize on the "anti-incumbent, anti-Washington" fervor nationwide.

News Copy met Grimm this weekend at the New York State Conservative Party's political action conference.  Grimm came across as a solid campaigner who is poised to raised a significant sum of money in a district once held by former Republican Congresswoman Susan Molinari.

More important, the article notes how Grimm and other newcomers are working closely with tea party volunteers.

"... The district, in the New York City borough of Staten Island, has one of the most active Tea Party groups in the nation. While the group doesn't endorse candidates, Mr. Grimm seeks counsel from local Tea Party leader Frank Santarpia. "I pick his brain all the time," Mr. Grimm said.

Mr. Santarpia said he likes the idea of newcomers running for Congress. "There's a great deal of appeal to that. It certainly appeals to me," he said .,, "

However, the article fails to highlight a number of close competitive congressional districts around New York that should be attracting attention.

Races in the 19th, 20th, 23rd, 24th and 25th have remained under the radar while the following races are being touted by Republicans in Washington.

Insiders around the state are warning News Copy that New York hasn't generated the same excitement as other states.

The reason?

More of a focus by Republicans on reclaiming the New York State Senate ...

... And a reticence on the part of donors to support Republicans mired in the same divisive traps that plagued last year's 23rd Congressional race.

Conservatives could be fielding candidates -- ably supported by tea party groups -- who Republicans have so far failed to promote around New York.

The rest are self-starters like Bob Grimm or Doug Hoffmann in the 23rd.

Ironically, the argument has been put forth that internal support by the NRCC or the RNC or even the State GOP is not welcome.

Many outsiders would prefer not to be tagged as the "insider" candidate.

They're running away from establishment support.

Are they also going to run away from the Republican Party or will there be cooperation between tea party candidates and G.O.P. operations?

"Running political newcomers is a proven strategy when the political tide swings drastically toward one side, and at times when voters have soured on Washington in general. In 1994, when Republicans won a majority of House seats after four decades in the minority, 55% of the party's 73 freshmen lawmakers had never held political office. Similarly in 2006, when Democrats took control, 45% of their new lawmakers had never held office before."

Perhaps it is more of a Pogo moment ("I have seen the enemy and it is us").  Newt Gingrich's Contract With America changed the Congress from Democrat to Republican in 1994.  Two years later, when Speaker Gingrich was the establishment, Gingrich found himself ousted by the same revolution he had started,

New York Republicans Aim At Tuesday's Special Elections: Proving November Was No Fluke

Democrats are pulling out the liberal guns in New York's sleepy suburbs to stave off any further tea party upsets.

House Reps. Nita Lowey and John Hall know what is at stake in New York City's suburbs.

Three of four special elections for State Assembly seats are expected to be won by Republicans, due to a growing tea party presence in Westchester and Long Island.

David Singer of Scarsdale offers an insightful analysis in The Huffington Post, aptly entitled "Reading The Tea (bagger) Leaves ..."

Republican Michael Montesano is expected to win Nassau County's 15th Assembly District, as is Democrat David Weprin in Queens County's 24th in a perennial liberal bastion.  However, Suffolk's District 3 with Republican Dean Murray against Democrat Lauren Thorden and Westchester's 89th with Republican Bob Castelli against Democrat Peter Harckham could score additional victories for the G.O.P. that would have been political funerals in previous years.

In Westchester, a win would be further vindication for that county Republican organization:

"The Democrats have a 10,000 registered voter edge over the Republicans, but in a special election all bets are off. Harckham and Castelli are known in the northern Westchester part of the district -- but have limited name recognition in the higher-populated southern end. This too is a jump ball and will depend on the GOTV effort waged by each candidate."

Sources have told News Copy that Congressman John Hall has dedicated his staff and himself to helping the Democrat win in the lower reaches of his own 19th Congressional District.  It's also no surprise to learn that former Congresswoman Sue Kelly and her husband were manning the phones for Castelli.

"A victory by Castelli would prove last year's landslide by Rob Astorino in Westchester was no fluke.  It would change the assessment by donors and national Republicans alike on dozens of state legislative and congressional races throughout New York and the northeast."

At stake is a vulnerable spike in the heart of a liberal "gentry" region that Democrats in New York or federally cannot afford to lose any ground.  The bottom line is that a victory by Castelli would prove that last year's landslide by Rob Astorino (57-43%) to become county executive was no fluke.  It would also change the assessment by donors and national Republicans alike on dozens of state legislative and congressional races throughout New York and the northeast.

"... If the Republicans take back AD#3 with Murray and AD#89 with Castelli, this will be a sign of trouble for the Democratic party up and down the line, likely accelerating the exit of David Paterson from the gubernatorial race, and indicating better odds to the Republicans retaking control of the State Senate in November."

These special elections are the game changer in a state supposedly claimed by liberal Democrats....

The Yonkers Tribune covered Harckham being endorsed by eleven-term incumbent Nita Lowey, whose 18th Congressional District covers the lower portion of the 89th, and Hall, whose 19th Congressional District covers most of northern Westchester.

9/11 Terror Trial Targets: The New Ground Zero

Justice has become dangerous but we are in the middle of a war on terror.

While the Justice Department finds itself a jurisdiction in exile, rightful fears of terrorist retribution as the trials commence (or after) should be heeded.

Following the White House asking the Justice Department to look for other places to hold the 9/11 terror trials, local officials in alternative jurisdictions are getting nervous.

White Plains hosted terror trials in the Westchester County Courthouse.  The thought did occur to people that a terror trial would make suburban New York the next target.

Just ask anyone who parked their car in that courthouse's basement.

Newburgh had been suggested by that city's mayor -- as a cheap tourist gimmick -- but Orange County Executive Ed Diana adamantly opposed the idea.

"Forty-four Orange County residents lost their lives on that most horrific day, and to bring these monsters to Orange County is an insult to our residents."

Whether the Justice Department redirects the trial to West Point, Stewart Air National Guard Base or Otisville Correctional Facility, there are security implications the Hudson Valley will be forced to grapple with.

Does the Obama administration want to further endanger the Tappan Zee Bridge, Indian Point Nuclear Plant and Stewart International Airport as future terrorist targets?

The location of the new terror trial has become the new ground zero.

It required lobbying from a California U.S. Senator to finally wake up New York's Congressional delegation to stop turning a blind eye about the dangers of a Manhattan trial.  Dianne Feinstein demonstrated that politics cannot factor into any decision.  It's about common sense this time.

"Does the Obama administration want to further endanger the Tappan Zee Bridge, Indian Point Nuclear Plant and Stewart International Airport as future terrorist targets?"

Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess, Orange and Rockland counties are part of a delicate transportation corridor that is sadly ripe for a terrorist attack.  This war on terror is at a tipping point and painting a bull's eye on the back of New York City's suburban region is reckless.

These enemy combatants are prisoners of war.  The war on terror is far from over.  The double-standard on the status of terrorists as nationals or citizens of the world is plaguing the process of justice.  Perhaps it is time to lay down a firmer gauntlet, but to whom?

New York Congressman John Hall On Freedom of Speech: SHUT UP!!!

A liberal Democrat in New York's Hudson Valley wants a law to undermine a Supreme Court ruling allowing corporate involvement in elections.

New York Congressman John Hall wants to sidestep the recent high court ruling on free speech by discriminating against investors in American corporations.

"Foreign nationals who have partial ownership or management of American corporations do not have the right to use that control to swing American elections."

John Hall has no problem with Democrats socializing parts of the U.S. economy -- and letting its special interests donate in excess to the same Democrats -- but evil capitalists can't Constitutionally advocate a free market system?

The Freedom From Foreign-Based Manipulation in American Elections Act would block campaign advertising by any corporation with foreign nationals making up 5% or more of their shareholders, foreign nationals on its board of directors, or a foreign national employed as a senior executive. regulations.

Five percent?  Hall should check his own stock portfolio and donor list for foreign entanglements before he throws stones.  The truth is that Hall wants to penalize foreignors who believe in capitalism and America's form of government.  The two-term Democrat is just reaching for this xenophobic excuse to knock down American corporations.

He doesn't care one bit where the money comes from.

Next, Rep. Hall will start singing The Internationale ...

$4 Million Newspaper Website Has 35 Subscribers: Cablevision Running Newsday Like The Knicks

When in doubt, count on Cablevision to ruin a newspaper the same way that they deconstructed the New York Knicks.

It's nothing new but no amount money can force people to pay for something that they can get for free somewhere else.

Not even Cablevision, who last October bought Newsday.

$4 million dollars later, a new subscription-based website has failed to draw any significant interest.

"The paper was one of the first non-business newspapers to take the plunge by putting up a pay wall, so in media circles it has been followed with interest."

35 subscribers?  No comment.  Traffic has also gone from 2.2 million unique visits to 1.5 million since Cablevision started gutting the newsroom.  That sort of leaves the newspaper with less content and less reason for readers to show up.  Also, part of the problem is that Cablevision offers Newsday.com as a freebie with its Optimum Cable.

But to quote the newsroom, "The website sucks."

So do the Knicks.

Across The Empire State: Opinion Around New York

Obama and New York State Governor David Paterson are now held political hostage by the same enemy, observed The Ithaca Journal.

The economy.

In the Elmira Star-Gazette, Governor Paterson coined 2010 the "year of reckoning" (see "the days of wine and roses are over").

"The days of overspending are finished. The era of irresponsibility is behind us. The age of accountability is here."

Why did it take so long (over 35 years) and so many more dollars in debt ($7.4 billion) for someone in Albany to start channeling former Governor Hugh Carey?

The New York Sun questioned Obama admonishing the highest court on its ruling to loosen restrictions on corporate spending during political campaigns.

"... There was the president of America, standing just a few feet in front and somewhat above, the seated justices of the Supreme Court, and launching into a direct attack on the their honors."

North Country Now had a column complaining how the Supreme Court decision had have/have not implications that gave the wealthy too much influence on elections.

"As if campaign money hadn’t already distorted this country’s politics to favor banks and other money companies, insurance companies, oil, chemical and drug companies, the corporatist activist “Gang of Five” court under John Roberts will make the wealthy wealthier while the rest of us get it in the chops."

The Poughkeepsie Journal doesn't see the point in spending billions of dollars on high speed rail, including $$151 million in Federal stimulus, when all the work only saves riders ten minutes from New York City to Albany.

"... Other parts of upstate New York would greatly benefit from high-speed rail, as trips between Rochester and Albany would be reduced by almost an hour from the current time it takes, slightly more than 4 hours."

The Buffalo News argued that the "spending sins of state government" causing reduced aid to local school districts shouldn't be passed onto future generations.

"The problem is that, generally speaking, the alternatives— which the Legislature inevitably will prefer— are worse. They include raising taxes and borrowing money. But New York’s tax and debt loads are already intolerable. Do we really want to make them worse, and burden multiple future generations with the consequences of our inability to deal with the problems we caused? Just because they can’t vote for Silver and his followers doesn’t mean they should be sacrificed."

The New York Post ran an editorial praising California U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein for speaking out against having 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheik Mohammed and other terrorists tried in lower Manhattan.

The Post noted that the White House listened to Feinstein ("How a real senator sounds") and that both New York's U.S. Senators had failed to act like one.

"Memo to Chuck Schumer and Kirsten "Tweety Bird" Gillibrand: This is what can happened when truth is spoken authoritatively to power. Neither of them could summon the guts to do so, even after Bloomberg warned this week that the terror trials could cost the city $1 billion for security and choke downtown business."

With Governor Paterson, Speaker Sheldon Silver, Rep. Peter King and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg all in agreement against the trials being held in New York City, Schumer and Gillibrand obviously serve another master.

National Debt Graph: Great Depression and World War II Level Fiscal Obligations

The accompanying article withe this graph discusses how "Hoover got us in, and WWII got us out.  Bush got us in, and to his credit, started trying to get us out. Though, mostly he threw money at bankers."

I would be curious how that graph would look with off-budget debt calculated, including what party had control of Congress during some of these sharper jumps in debt.

The Democrats have a monopoly on expanding most of that debt, particularly prior to Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America" giving Republicans the majority in the 1994 elections (note the drop in the debt).  The starker increases in debt have happened while Democrats were running the House. 

Consultant's Journal: Politics, Policy and the Business of Reforming Government

Bob Fois

Political Journal
Friday, January 29, 2010

 

The Real Republicans

 

Conservatives from around New York State will be gathering Sunday and Monday in Albany for the New York State Conservative Party's Political Action Conference.

This year is a bit different, following the "Punch and Judy" act that transpired last fall in 23rd Congressional District between arch-liberal Republican Assemblyman Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party nominee Douglass Hoffman.

Following Scozzafava's departure, Hoffman should have been given a clear road -- but the "Pro-Choice, Pro-Union & Pro Gay Marriage Republican" endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.

Conservative insiders are telling me that Hoffman won't have the same third party glow this time, since Republicans are lining up behind Assemblyman Will Barclay.

Whether the battle is over true Republican platform principles is on the eastern tip of Long Island or back upstate in the 23rd, these same battles will be argued over and over this weekend by Conservatives and Republicans alike.

"Many of us take pride in just saying we're the "real Republicans" in New York"

I like to remind my Republican friends that the New York State Conservative Party carries a set of principles that are identical to the RNC platform.  Yet, Conservatives catch flack from liberal Republicans about our foreign platform.  There's nothing foreign or contrarian about being a Conservative in New York.  We adhere to a true Republican platform.

Many of us take pride in just saying we're the "real Republicans" in New York.

Securing that all important Conservative line is critical for Republican candidates, especially this year.  It seems as though everyone wants to run for Congress.  As many are lining up for Assembly and State Senate seats.  As Obama's popularity wilts, so does the competition for Republican seats.

Pick a number ...

The New York Tea Party Central: Make Your Voice Heard

April 15th promises to be a busy day around America for Tea Parties.

The list of tea parties in New York on Tax Day is a long one.

I suspect this is just the beginning.

As a courtesy to the hundreds of volunteers out there making these events happen, News Copy will be updating the following list.

We will also be highlighting each tea party group and covering the revolts all over New York, including much national coverage (Many thanks to Barry Pardee, the New York State Tax Day Tea Party Coordinator).

The following is a list of CONFIRMED Tea Party Tax Revolts planned within the state of New York. Please note that we ONLY list events happening on April 15th.

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City: Albany
When: April 15, 11:00am - 2:00pm
Where: Corning Preserve
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info: http://www.albanyteaparty.com/
Facebook Group: CLICK HERE

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City: Albion
When: April 15, 3:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.
Where: Orleans County Courthouse Square, Main St. at State St.
Other Info: Let people know to bring their own signs, and tea.
Contact Info: EMAIL

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City: Binghamton
When: April 15, 5:30pm - 7:00pm
Where: Confluence Park, S. Washington St.
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info: Requesting every one bring symbolic empty wallets, shirt off their back and tea bags.
Website: CLICK HERE

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City: Buffalo
When: April 15, Noon
Where: Across from City Hall
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Canton
When: April 15, 11:00am - 2:00pm
Where: On the corner of Main Street (Rt. 11) & Park, Across from the Canton Post
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group:

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City: Corning
When: April 15, 5:30 pm
Where: Centerway Square
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info: Blog
Facebook Group: Click Here

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City: Eastern Long Island
When: April 15, 12:00 pm - 3:00 pm
Where: East Hampton (NY) City Hall then to 3-Mile Harbor (City Pier), 159 Pantigo Road
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Click Here

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City: Elmira
When: April 15, 9:00am - 9:00pm (see event contact for details)
Where: At N. Main St. and Gray St.
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:

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City: Endicott
When: April 15, 5:00pm - 7:00pm
Where: Endicott Post Office on Washington Ave
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Fishkill
When: April 15, 7:00 pm - 9:00 pm
Where: Dutchess Stadium, 1500 Rte. 9D
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info: www.fishkillteaparty.com
Facebook Group: CLICK HERE

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City: Gardiner
When: April 15, 6:00 pm - 8:00 pm
Where: The Rail Trail, Route 44/55
Contact: EMAIL
Phone: 845.255.3557
Other Info: gardinersright.org
Facebook Group: Coming Soon!

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City: Gouverneur
When: April 15, email contact for time
Where: Village Square
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group:
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City: Hauppague
When: April 15, 5:30pm
Where: Korean War Memorial, 100 Veterans Memorial Highway, #3
Suffolk County Dennison Building
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Hicksville, Long Island
When: April 15, 5:30pm - 8:00pm
Where: Broadway Mall
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info: Click Here
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Kingston
When: April 15, 3:00 pm - 7:00 pm
Where: RT. 9W across from the Hudson Valley Mall
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group:

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City: Massapequa
When: April 15, 4:00pm - 6:00pm
Where: Massapequa Train Station on the Sunrise Hwy side
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info: Click Here
Facebook Group: Coming Soon!

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City: Medford
When: April 15, Noon
Where: The wedge across from Tremont Elementrary School
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group:

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City: Nanuet
When: April 15, 12:00 Noon — 5:00 pm
Where: Corner of Route 59 and Middletown Road
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group:

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City: New York City
When: April 15, 7:00pm - 9:00pm
Where: City Hall Park
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: CLICK HERE

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City: Norwich
When: April 15, 9:00am - Noon
Where: Courthouse on Broad St. (Route 12)
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Riverhead
When: April 15, 7:00pm - 9:00pm
Where: Riverhead Riverfront (behind the east end Arts Council in downtown Riverhead)
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Meet-up Group: Click Here

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City: Rochester
When: April 15, 11:00am
Where: Downtown Rochester, Genesee Crossroads Park
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Click Here

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City: Rome
When: April 15, 4:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Where: Fort Stanwix
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Sag Harbor
When: 12:00 p.m. until ….
Where: Long Wharf
Contact:EMAIL

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City: Smithtown
When: April 15th, 5:00 pm - 7:00 pm+
Where: on Route 347 & Moriches Rd (west of Toys R Us)
Contact: EMAIL

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City: Staten Island
When: April 15, Noon
Where: Cong. Michael McMahon’s office, 265 New Dorp Lane, at the corner of Edison Street
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info: http://taxdayteapartysiny.blogspot.com/
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Syracuse
When: April 15, 11:30 am - 1:30pm
Where: Federal Building
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:
Facebook Group: Click Here

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City: White Plains
When: April 15, Noon
Where: Outside the Westchester Count Center
Contact: EMAIL
Other Info:LateHitSports.com/TaxDayTeaParty
Facebook Group: Coming Soon

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City: Windham
When: April 15, 5:00 p.m. until …
Where: Windham Civic Center
Contact info: Jim Varelas at 589-5849

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Rockland County Tea Party: The Blueprint For Change Conference (February 15, 2010)

The Tea Parties aren't going away.

Rockland will be host to a President's Day forum of speakers entitled "The Blueprint For Change Conference" on February 15, 2010.

I went down to Washington, D.C. on December 15th with the Rockland Tea Party group, Conserveality -- Forum For Conservative Reality for the Code Red Rally against the healthcare bill.

We went down to make a bit of noise -- and I think Congress heard us.

Both Michele Bachmann and Laura Ingraham were on hand to rally the people at this Senate Emergency Rally. 

World's Most Expensive Credit Card: Democrats Vote To Raise Debt Limit to $14.3 Trillion

Every Senate Democrat voted today to raise the debt limit to $14.3 trillion.

So much for bi-partisan cooperation.  Democrats threw fiscal restraint under the bus.

Michelle Malkin had the details on the 60-40 vote -- along party lines -- in the U.S. Senate.

"Let me repeat that — and let it be repeated loudly and often:  Every Senate Democrat voted to raise the debt limit to $14.3 trillion.  That’s $45,000 per American."

She provided the details on the roll call vote.

Democrats controlled this vote, 60-40, showing no regard for the fiscal consequences.

Why don't they just print every American a bill?

This makes a Congressional voting card the world's most expensive credit card.

   

"Blame It On Bush": Obama And McCain Take Cheap Shots At Former President

Hot Air did surgery on President Obama's disinformation.

Obama blamed President Bush but Ed Morrissey noted that Democrats how Congress held the purse strings:

"In three years, they increased annual federal spending by $900 billion, while the admittedly profligate and irresponsible Republican Congresses under George Bush increased annual federal spending by $800 billion — in six years.  And during the last three years before taking office as President, Obama served in the Senate that passed those bills, and he voted for every Democratic budget put in front of him."

Rasmussen Reports measured voter angst on the stimulus package, counter to the rosy picture Obama painted.

The president presented the $787-billion economic stimulus package as a success story. However, just 35% of voters believe the stimulus plan has helped the economy, while 31% believe it hurt. At this time, 39% are concerned the government will do too little to deal with the economy while 49% fear it will do too much.

Ace of Spades was a bit more blunt.

"Obama Voted for, or Signed Into Law, Every Blessed Penny of 2009's Spending"

The details followed:

"... The 2009 budget was almost exclusively approved by Democrats, with "Yeas" coming from current President then Sen. Obama, his current Vice President then Sen. Joe Biden, his current Chief of Staff then Rep. Rahm Emanuel, and his current Secretary of State then Sen. Hillary Clinton."

Obama voted to authorize $3.1 trillion in federal outlays along with a projected $400 billion deficit.  Obama voted for TARP, all $700 billion of the Troubled Assets Relief Program.  The newly sworn-in President didn't veto $787 billion stimulus bill that passed in February 2009.

But Newsbusters caught some self-loathing by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who was caught mouthing to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and said, "Blame it on Bush."

Not a Joe Wilson moment.

Obama State of the Union: President Preaches To Republican But G.O.P. Fails To Capitalize

Second thoughts on Obama's State of the Union address.

Come to think of it, I had no first thoughts.  I saw it.  I endured Obama-speak last night.

I know Glenn Beck told everyone not to see it.   I only beared with the dishonest rhetoric to get some idea what the Democrats will do next.

Obama spun the jobs and cut spending mantra well enough -- but he was too smooth and preachy.

This was Barack Obama trying to be Cool Hand Luke, making believe he was a "new" populist Blue Dog Democrat.  It didn't work.

Here was a President of the United States who was really pretending to be a reformer (or maybe Bill Clinton).

It was a good performance, maybe even a good speech but it went flat when he begged for healthcare legislation ("Let's get it done").

"I found the Republican response by Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell to be wooden ... and as cocky as Obama.  Worse, the applause and setting seemed canned and staged"

There were glimmers of true reform name dropped throughout the Obama's speech but close analysis proved it all paper thin.  There's no reality to Barack Obama, only spin.  The problem is that he can still fool people and there was plenty in his delivery -- his cocky body language -- that pretends too well to imagine all is well.

My biggest problem with the speech came after Obama was finished, a moment where the GOP should have capitalized.  Though it was steeped with substance, I found the Republican response by Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell to be wooden ... and as cocky as Obama.  Worse, the applause and setting seemed canned and staged.

Political commentators from both side of the aisle came up with more critical analysis on CNN yet FOX seemed more consumed with just saying it was a bad speech.  If you're a Sarah Palin fan, her post-address analysis seemed stage struck and empty of any substance.  She looked unprepared and without any immediacy.  There were pregnant pauses (think "deer in the headlights") where the only suspense was waiting for any words out of her mouth.

I don't believe the Republicans seized the moment.  Then again, maybe the Democrats will do all the work for them. 

Healthcare Polls Vary 20 Percent Depending On Who Pays For The Poll

Polls on healthcare vary as much as 20 percent, depending on the question and the pollster.

Obama and the Democratic agenda took a beating in Massachusetts special election, though it is being grudgingly acknowledged.  The Washington Post wrote it off to voter anger -- rather than an informed opposition to policy.

Nothing changes with the liberal fourth estate.  Liberals in the media and government don't want to admit there is valid opposition to their liberal agenda.

Obama's radioactivity continues, however, and the polls show that too.

Rasmussen Reports measured 61% saying it is time for Congress to drop health care reform and focus on more immediate ways to improve the economy and create jobs.

"Fifty-nine percent (59%) say given the country’s current economic situation, the Obama administration should wait on health care reform until the economy improves. That’s a 10-point increase from March of last year. Thirty-three percent (33%) still say the White House should move forward with health care reform."

Another trend is being sustained though.

"Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democrats say the Obama administration should keep pushing health care reform. Eighty-four percent (84%) of GOP voters and 63% of unaffiliateds think the White House should wait until the economy gets better."

The reality check has not hit Democrats or they refuse as a voting block to discern that has gone wrong with the economy or Congress.

A Kaiser Family Foundation poll disputes those poll results, particularly on independent non-affiliated voters. 

"Americans’ views of health reform generally track with their politics: Most Democrats (64%) support the proposals on Capitol Hill, while an even larger majority of Republicans (76%) oppose them. The middle ground is left to independents, with 41 percent in favor and 43 percent opposed– even as a narrow majority (52%) backs the general idea that it is more important than ever to take on health reform now"

Kaiser's poll asserts that opinions on healthcare change as voters are informed.  Fair enough.  But with one poll saying 63% want healthcare benched and another poll measuring only 43 percent opposed, it might be more a question of priorities than opposition.

In polling, the wrong question is worth a thousand words of misinformation -- but there is a valid difference between those opposing healthcare and those wanting to put it on hold.

The Washington Post poll found 52 percent of those who voted for Scott Brown said Obama was not a factor.

Do you believe that?

 

New York's 19th Congressional Getting More Crowded: Pro-life Movement Flexing Muscles

Since Barack Obama only won New York's 19th Congressional District 52-48%, two-term incumbent 
Democrat John Hall has to be feeling the heat.  News Copy has learned that the names of at least eight Republicans and one Conservative are being floated for this House seat, including four each from Orange and Westchester counties.

The consistent word from all sources, from most partly leaders and particularly from people "on the ground" is that Nan Hayworth is still not resonating, despite confirmed stories that she is pressuring committee by committee for early endorsements.  Also, Conservatives and Republicans alike understand that the 19th is one of those rare districts in New York tailor made for a true conservative Republican.

And pro-life candidates are stepping forward, partly in protest but also somewhat curious that they can be the next Scott Brown.  It won't be that simple or easy in New York.

Last week, a story broke about a Yorktown (and D.C.) native named Tom DeChiaro "mulling" a run against Democrat Nan Hall in New York's 19th Congressional District.  The North County News quoted DeChiaro taking an openly pro-life stance.

DeChiaro, who is Catholic, said his beliefs will guide him when it comes to making decisions about policy.

“If you are a candidate who believes in the sanctity of life, you have to vote based on your belief, or you have no integrity. When it comes to core values, you can’t have a give and take.”

DeChiaro join DeCarlo in taking an open stance against abortion.  It is speculated that other pro-life candidates are lining up, possibly Conservative Avery Leidner out of Orange County and former Congressman Joe DioGuardi, who lives less than a mile outside the district in Ossining (though News Copy can confirm DioGuardi's interest could be either statewide or again challenging eleven term incumbent Democrat Nita Lowey in the 18th Congressional in lower Westchester).

Orange County Republicans are expected to make their presence known in this race, especially since it is the largest and more dominant Republican portion of the 19th.  Former Tuxedo Mayor David McFadden has declared with $100,000 on hand but the Times Herald-Record reported that he is already catching criticism from Nan Hayworth's campaign -- for his party registration (or lack thereof).

Jay Townsend, a consultant for Republican rival Nan Hayworth's campaign, responded to the announcement by revealing that McFadden isn't registered as a Republican – he has no party affiliation – and that he recently had a $21,441 tax lien filed against him, in addition to past tax problems.

McFadden “hasn't cared enough to register in the Conservative or Republican parties,” Townsend said. “Nor has he cared enough about our community to even pay his taxes and honor his obligations.”

This already has the feel of a competitive primary shaping up.

The North County News blog argued that a primary in the 19th would not help Republicans.

"... The lesson has not been lost on the state Republican party regarding the Democrats winning the Republican stronghold of upstate New York District 23 last November, another humiliating defeat for the old-guard GOP."

It was a liberal Republican endorsing the Democrat that cost Conservative Douglas Hoffman the primary, not the actual primary.

The other possible candidates in the race remain under the political radar or have not formally declared, though numerous sources comfirm that another wealthy candidate is weighing the option of a run and at least another "true conservative" is being courted by Republicans.

In New York, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver Remains THE Problem

New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver rules "the most dysfunctional legislature in the United States" with a bureaucratic fist.

The Tea Party reformers should converge on Albany, though right now the focus is rightfully on Congress and the White House.  Hereby lies the headache for political reformers in New York.  Albany isn't on the tip of anyone's tongue.  Our frustrations over taxes are vented locally at town supervisors and mayors or Congress and President Barack Obama, as much of it should.

But our State government is facing financial default -- and Sheldon Silver continues to allow liberal spending as if there isn't a problem.

It is true the the rules have to change in Albany, Assembly and State Senate rules that centralize power in hands of a small number of elected officials.  Much of that power is monopolized by Speaker Silver.  Electing im out of office is difficult, nearly impossible, since his base is lower liberal Manhattan.  However, each member of the Assembly -- in BOTH parties -- should be heavily lobbied to remove him from the leadership.

And plug another corrupt powerbroker into the same position?

Lawmakers either have to change Albany and make it more accountable to the people, allowing measures like initiative and referenda, or facing being retired by the voters this coming November.

In the meantime, the New York Daily News reported that a Western New York Tea Party has been planned for Sheldon Silver next Thursday -- and within Democratic circles!

Liz Benjamin of the Daily Politics acknowledged the steam under the pot.

"Just one example of the kind of populist anger brewing out there on the edges of the state these days."

Populist anger ... There has to be a better way of describing grass-roots concern.

G.O.P. Reality Check: 58 Dem Seats In Play With Many Primaries Ahead

The New York Times reported that political analyst Stuart Rothenberg counts 58 Democratic House seats in play.  That's up from 47 in December.  That's a big difference from political analyst Michael Barone's assessment, who forecasted 130 of those districts in play. Republicans haven't lost any ground, with still only 14 seats in play. There is only enthusiasm.

“If you live in a district with no Republican candidate, run for office,” Representative Pete Sessions of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a posting on RedState, a conservative blog.

The problem is that wealthy candidates will be courted by party leaders, for their dollars, but not necessarily for their credentials or ability to serve.  The other problem will be primaries.

The New York Times observed that "deeper intramural divisions are within the Republican Party, a sign of the intensity and unpredictability of the grass-roots conservative movement."

Which is liberal-speak for, conservatives and Tea Party candidates will cost Republicans elections.

"Across the country, Republican candidates are running as outsiders with the backing of conservative Tea Party groups, challenging Republicans identified with the party establishment. Several analysts said the victory in the Massachusetts Senate race of Scott Brown, a Republican who ran with Tea Party support, could encourage more challenges and drive incumbents further right."

This kind of staid conventional wisdom will prompt some GOP leaders to run Rhinos (Republican In Name Only) and other wiser chairs to seek Tea Party independents who speak the same language as the conservatives and libertarians seeking reform/overhaul.

Given Newt Gingrich's presence in New York's 23rd Congressional District race last year against, a three-way that was sabotaged by the former House Speaker's pronouncement for a liberal Republican and that liberal Republican then endorsing the Democrat, such repeat performances are imminent.

Thoug Conservative Douglas Hoffman narrowly lost that election, his re-match against Democrat Bill Owens is not yet getting a clear road from Republicans. The party in New York remains divided as Assemblyman Will barclay has announced that he will run against Owens, forcing another three-way primary.

 
Gingrich created this cult of independence fourteen years ago when he launched the Contract With America and Republicans took back the House of Representatives.

Now he and the Republican establishment want independent challengers to go home?

Obama's Teleprompter: Don't Leave Home Without It

Waiting For Andrew: Cuomo's Quixotic Journey Reaches Fork In Road

Andrew Cuomo running for New York State Governor would seem like a natural step.  But there won't be any natural political steps in 2010, for anyone in either major party.

Tom Precious of The Buffalo News had a primer on Cuomo's lofty positioning.

Because Cuomo is not an announced candidate, many Democrats say, he does not have to stake out positions on such controversial and divisive topics. He is the attorney general and can act like that.

"I think certainly Andrew Cuomo is a very smart strategist and he understands the minute you announce your candidacy that every issue that is the governor's issue is his issue," said Assemblyman Mark J.F. Schroeder, a Buffalo Democrat who last year publicly said he was backing a Cuomo candidacy..

How will Republicans beat him?

First he has to beat Governor David Paterson in a primary, though Paterson may have already beaten himself.  Then Cuomo has to beat Albany itself -- or at least find a way to keep its fiscal troubles off his back an entire campaign.

While the Republicans may or may not beat themselves, again, they may also rise to the challenge.

Cuomo seems unbeatable.  Whether you are Rick Lazio or Chris Collins or Steve Levy or anyone else, this won't be Pataki versus Cuomo (1994).  This won't be Cuomo versus Lehrman either (1982) -- or Cuomo vs. Koch (1982).

If he doesn't run, the state's ensuing fiscal collapse will be someone else's problem.  If he does run, win and succeed in solving New York's economic woes, Cuomo could then aim for a White House run by 2016.  But he might be as potent a presidential aspirant staying away from the partisan sinkholes and instead play hero as crime buster as Attorney General.

Many have noted that he didn't stand in the way of Eliot Spitzer's deconstruction but fixing Albany would require more than playing moralist over some hank panky.  The scourge of potential legal and financial scandals would turn Mr. Cuomo into a contemporary Robespierre (not too different from how Spitzer and Giuliani were both regarded as prosecutors).

He will be as hated as he will be beloved.

The next governor has no choice.  This gubernatorial fork in the road, Democrat or Republican, must clean up Albany or face a legacy worse than Chicago.  Cuomo has to beat more than a Republican by November, more than Paterson in a primary, more than the undeserved shadows of his father still lurking around every media corner to bite at his reputation.

Cuomo has to defeat a man named Sheldon Silver, particularly, or the Republicans will capitalize ... and deservedly.  There's a bit more to this political intrigue than one chess game.  Silver has a few decisions to make of his own, as will almost every major Democratic boss in New York State.

Black Democrats and establishment players alike will cringe.  What will be left of the Democratic Party in New York after ten months of vicious spin?  Harold Ford and Kirsten Gillibrand are in the same rowboat, as is Tom DiNapoli -- who actually has to deliver the bad news that New York is broke -- and Attorney General hopeful Jeff Klein (who becomes the new inquisitor and executioner).

Andrew Cuomo can be like any Democrat or demonstrate independence.  The deeper question is how many supposedly "new" Democrats genuinely grasp this choice.  The other question is how lonely it gets once Cuomo walks the road less travelled ...

... If "rank and file" Democrats let him.

Psst!!! Don't Raise Any Money. It's Spoiled. Pass It On.

James Taranto of The Wall Street Journal gives the Grey Lady a spanking, admonishing The New York Times for its scorn of last week's Supreme Court's ruling on campaign finance.

It's as much a ruling on free speech, on capitalism and on allowing a laying playing field between Democrats and Republicans with campaign finance.

In a carefully researched story entitled "Censorship, Inc.", Taranto ably noted the hypocrisy employed by the Times -- as if their free speech smells better than anyone else's.

"It's lucky for the New York Times Co. that the Supreme Court upheld its First Amendment rights. Otherwise, it could not have exercised its First Amendment right to denounce the court for upholding its First Amendment rights."

The New York Times is demonstrating its lack of liberal free speech, the control freak game that has defined news coverage for over 40 years.

The point of the Court is that unfair regulation of corporate media companies inhibits freedom of speech, whether they broadcast or print newspapers (or build a network of blogs).

The problem is that all liberal news providers want is a monopoly and less free speech, rather than competitive free speech.

Harold Ford In The House: Former Congressman Enters New York's Body Politic

What's this guy doing in New York?

Harold Ford Jr. was a United States representative from Tennessee from 1997 to 2007 -- but he's in a different "house" now.

Why would a rising star like Ford, described as a moderate and a populist Democrat, walk into New York's poitical killing fields?

Hillary Clinton did it.  Robert Kennedy did it.  William Weld tried to do it.

This article written last November when Ford was first polling for a race against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tries to grasp the genesis of Ford's thinking.

Gillibrand seems to have centered herself away from any firm political base, so maybe there is reality for Ford's musings.  But he has drifted from the Democrats at times on social issues, so he is sort of a man with a party ... or a state ... at the moment.

Fiscally, Ford sounds more like a Republican than a Democrat in this New York Times Op-Ed published yesterday.

"... Cut taxes for businesses — big and small — and find innovative ways to get Americans back to work. We can start by giving any companies that are less than five years old an exemption from payroll taxes for six months; extending the current capital gains and dividend tax rates through 2012; giving permanent tax credits for businesses that invest in research and development; and reducing the top corporate tax rate to 25 percent from 35 percent."

The Atlantic noted how liberals countered "Ford's fuzzy math" but this is just what Harold Ford needs, a buzz from both sides of his party during a primary.

But will it work for him in New York, or as a Democrat?  Of course, the same was said about Gillibrand by fellow Democrats (and still is) along with voter angst disgruntled Republicans who felt betrayed by her liberal light bulb the moment she was appointed U.S. Senator.

Welcome to New York, Mr. Ford.

Michael Barone: Democrats May Have Only 103 Safe Seats

New York Republicans could win back more than half of the state's House seats if candidates run as well as Scott Brown, observed respected political analyst Michael Barone.  Nationwide, Democrats would be whittled down to 103 seats.

Merci'

The numerical analysis by Barone is a treat but it presumes a continued political failure by Democrats that is unrealistic.  Or maybe Democrats won't hunker down and re-group?  Maybe all the incumbents won't be as vain and unfocused as Coakley?  Perhaps the bigger issue is how many of these Congressional seats will be won by third party candidates ... Independents.

Republican vanity and hubris could be the next casualties of Tea Party candidates this November -- though watch the first collateral damage occur September 14th.  Incumbents and established party picks and insider favorites alike might be defeated on primary day. 

Barone's thoughtful analysis notes how Coakley wins in districts where Obama had 65% or better in 2008, running dead even where Obama had 64%.

Scott Brown takes everything else below 64%.

Applying that benchmark to the rest of the country, New York isn't a vast political wasteland for Republicans anymore (contrary to forecasted numbers).

It's nice to dream.

Numbers across the country show where Democrats normally would own House races -- but it comes back to Obama.

Though the blog, "A Certain Enthusiasm" (aptly put), cranks out numbers showing Coakley's demise in Obama-dominated Congressional Districts, someone should check precisely how many liberal Democrats stayed home -- versus non-affiliated voters who were finally roused to show up at the polling places.

Liberal Democrats will show up in November (Conservative Republicans will be there in September).

Republicans might get caught sleeping, both in primaries and the general election.

Democrats are historically better at re-grouping.  Republicans tend to pay the consultants a lot of money and overpower a race with paid media (and a lot of media there will be, with the recent Supreme Court decision affecting corporate donations and free speech).

The "gentry liberal" districts have their own turnout issues among liberal Republicans but Barone is correct that Democrats are trapped by their base.

"...House Democratic leadership has supported a solidly liberal agenda and has concentrated on whipping enough members from marginal districts to produce majorities on the floor—the large majority on the stimulus package in February or the narrow majority on cap-and-trade in June."

Republicans have the opposite problem.  They're a party whose dance with tea parties is provoking a search for something ... anything ... Bueller, Bueller ... anyone, anyone.  Hence, the candidates are lining up outside the door, both known and unknown.

Some of these districts will elect new faces.  The establishment party picks aren't bound to set the world on fire.  That's what both major parties still don't get.  Will the new faces have issues (as in true issues, not issues) and know how to campaign (and go through the exasperating process of fundraising and finding consultants who aren't thieves) -- or will they just expect a free ride to November and be beaten profusely by experienced political machines?

... Bueller, Bueller ...

It's Still The Economy, Stupid: Will Republicans Drop The Ball?

Ever wonder how true the talk of reform is from Republicans?

Larry Kudlow laid it out simply enough in National Review, "Are Republicans Listening to the Scott Brown Message?

"The cornucopia of tax hikes currently on the table includes higher levies on capital-gains, top earners, dividends, investment (via the payroll tax), carbon, millionaires, banks, stock transactions, and estates (via the death tax). It’s a long Democratic wish list of anti-growth policies, and Scott Brown’s triumph should signal the end of it. But it won’t happen unless GOP congressional leaders make a big deal about it."

Republican consultants and leaders may not know how to make a deal about it -- but they will benefit from the Tea Party movements.  The problem is that the spin masters and the bosses don't like being made irrelevant ... Or, at least, they don't want to believe that is possible.

 

Scott Brown Victory Has New York Millionaire Mulling New York House Race

While Tea Party activists throughout the Hudson Valley wait for a true conservative Republican to challenge two term incumbent Democrat John Hall in the 19th Congressional District, another wealthy "moderate" from Westchester is considering a run.

Blogs are buzzing about the entry of winery owner Tom DeChiaro into what is sizing up to be a crowded primary for the Republican line in this five county House seat.  The 19th includes parts of Westchester, Dutchess and Rockland, most of Orange County and all of Putnam.

DeChiaro's background is compelling, as reported by The Journal News.  He took on town hall when he was unhappy with the bureaucracy in Yorktown over building permits,

Characterizing himself a "center right" candidate, DeChiaro still avoided any mention of social conservative issues and failed entirely to mention the second amendment or illegal immigration.

These issues mean something to voters in the Mid-Hudson Valley. 

But DeChiaro is not alone in playing it safe as a moderate, if that is what he is ...

Pro-life activists are already openly displeased with another Republican vying to challenge John Hall, Mount Kisco native Nan Hayworth.  Republicans and Conservatives alike remain unsure about Hayworth -- and would be open to an alternative.  Extremely well funded with her own money (she has loaned her campaign $400,000), Hayworth started raising money last March but has only raised $166,000 from individual donors.

Daily Kos, the liberal blog, listed DeChiaro's entry among the sea changes after Scott Brown's win.

Other names have been floated, including three lesser known candidates from Orange County and an openly pro-life candidate from Dutchess County, Neil DeCarlo.  DeCarlo's entry has also been a cautious one, with him declining to discuss specific policy differences between him and Hayworth. 

It's still not certain how many -- if any -- of these candidacies will materialize and be sustained through a September 14th Republican primary.  Former Tuxedo Park Mayor David McFadden, a well-funded Republican from Orange County, had been believed to still be a candidate but he has not been actively campaigning.

The wealthy DeChiaro's entry counters Hayworth's dollars but money can't buy either of them the Conservative line.  Money sure helps a candidate survive the grueling primary process.  Finally, a challenge to Hall is projected to cost over $2 million, so neither of these deep pockets will be taken for granted.