"If you assume that every voter outside of those two counties is a Republican, the maximum share of the early vote the GOP could be would be 39.7 percent, and the minimum share for the Democrats would be 45.5. If the split in the early votes is more akin to the voter registration numbers in those counties, the Republican share of the early voters is 33.3 percent and the Democrats' is 50.6 percent. If Obama is only ahead by 8 percent in a sample that is 17 percent more Democrats, then yesterday's theory is upheld - there are more than a few pro-McCain Democrats that have cast ballots in Nevada already. (Or, alternatively, the independents are heavily pro-McCain, or both.)"
It sure would make for an avalanche of a news story if this pattern was holding up across the United States.
The dean of voting turnout predictions, Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, this week amped up his turnout forecast. Initially he said it would be around 2004 levels, but now he is looking at a turnout that would be the highest since 1960.
"It's driven by 90 percent of the American people thinking the country is on the wrong track," Gans said Friday. "The only question is how many Republicans are not going to show up."
What if Republicans do show up ... on Election Day?
The post World War II high was 63.8 percent in 1960. The high for the 20th Century has been estimated to be 65.7 percent in 1908 when William Howard Taft defeated William Jennings Bryan. 2004 was 60.1 percent.
It's close -- but it should have been McCain's weeks ago.
Pennsylvania. McCain has a shot and he didn't seem to have a chance a month ago.
The margin with polls had been between 7-14 points until Tuesday. Now the margin is closing, between 4-7 percent, though Morning Call has polled an additional six point gain for Obama.
Florida had been neck and neck, with McCain and Obama trading narrow 1-2 percent leads. Now Obama appears to be pulling away in the Sunshine State with 4-7 percent margins.
But Obama is still leading, so what should be rationalized here?
It's Halloween.
There's no "October Surprise" changing the outcome. There's no signficant dent in the Democrat's progress. McCain is whittling away at the undecideds, remarkably, but Obama hasn't lost ground.
The only variable of any consequence rattling the stability of this election remains the early voters.
Unless Republicans can bare polling that shows Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld within 10-15 percent (perhaps a dishonest leak), incumbent Democrat State Senator Suzi Oppenheimer appears poised to waltz away with this race.
Two-race strategy or not, Feld was doing better when she was criticizing her own political party.
Retiring or not, the 12-term alpha grandma benefits from a liberal leaning base in Westchester.
On a “woman’s right to choose,” Ms. Oppenhiemer pointed to her endorsements from pro-choice groups, including WCLA, Planned Parenthood and NARAL. She noted that New York has the nation’s highest teen pregnancy rate and that she co-sponsored the Healthy Teen’s Act that replaces prior “abstinence only” education. The new bill offers funding for districts seeking to start comprehensive “sex ed” programs so “youngsters can make responsible choices when they have the knowledge of what’s entailed,” she said.
Ms. Feld said she supports a woman’s right to choose and would do “everything I had to do to protect and defend that right.” She said she favored allowing decisions on sex ed to be made at the local level. “I support the work of Planned Parenthood and I support people who want to make these decisions for themselves at home in the privacy of their family,” she said.
News Copy was there and noted how alike these two candidates were on the social issues.
So why isn't Liz Feld resonating in socially liberal Mamaroneck, Scarsdale and Chappaqua?
"As much as some will salivate at the prospect of Democrats winning a majority at the New York State Legislature it is important to recognize that Liz Feld maintains a more open and engaging demeanor with the public and the press. Liz Feld exemplifies the moral and ethical compass many speak of dismissively maintaining a solid footing on issues most relevant to the community."
But bloggers aren't moving mountains in New York politics ... yet.
Murtaugh is heavily favored in Yonkers, where he is a popular albeit combative city councilman, but Greenburgh is a sure thing for Democrats. The rest of that State Senate district includes Mount Pleasant, a true Republican stronghold, but Greenburgh's numbers tip it all in Stewart-Cousins' favor.
Nearly $600,000 thrown into two suburban State Senate campaigns -- and neither Republican may break 40 percent. More interesting could be Murtaugh -- an openly social-conservative Republican -- faring better than the socially liberal Feld.
That data could be persuasive in elections throughout the sleepy suburbs for years to come.
Is she giving up or setting him up -- or feeling sorry for him?
"The size and dimension of the likely Democratic victory seem clear. A Democratic House with a bigger, more fervent Democratic majority; a Democratic Senate with the same, and possibly with a filibuster-breaking 60 seats; a new and popular Democratic president, elected by a few points or more; a Democratic base whose anger and hunger have built for eight years; Democratic activists and operatives hungry for business and action. What will this mix produce? A runaway train with no one to put on the brakes, to claim a mandate for slowing, no one to cry "Crossing ahead"? Democrats in Congress will move for innovation when much of the country hopes only for stability. Who will tell Congress of that rest of the nation? Mr. Obama will be overwhelmed trying to placate the innovators."
Terrorism could still kill millions of Americans and Democrats ruling two of the three brances of government only increases the odds of another attack on our soil.
The economy for 40 years has been slowed by Democrats pushing top-heavy tax policies.
As Noonan does point out, Americans want stability and Democrats are still toying with our money.
So we're supposed to now hope that Barack Obama will become Ronald Reagan?
"The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month."
However, Rasmussen points out that while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.
"We have delayed getting them that money," McCain said of the industry that saw September sales drop 27 percent from a year earlier.
McCain stopped short at calling for another bailout, as six governors (including New York's own David Paterson) made a plea to Congress this week for an additional bailout.
Re-tooling the auto industry to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles won't save them.
Saying "NO" to the unions and freezing (or cutting) salaries would be a start.
"As governors, we appreciate your recent efforts to provide liquidity to the credit and financial markets, and urge that you use your broad regulatory authority to ensure that your continued actions help promote liquidity within the U.S. auto industry," said the letter sent Wednesday. "This industry is vital to millions of citizens in our states and across the country."
The Late Night Vote Target Count was compiled all this year, monthly, from the following the usual late night suspects; Tonight Show, David Letterman, Conan O'Brien, Daily Show and Colbert Report
Sarah Palin was joked about 283 times in September, a record of sorts for the year (former New York State Governor Elliot Spitzer had been a joke target 204 times this past March).
Of course, Hollywood has some more serious issues at stake in this election ... like censorship, the FCC and the economy ... but Barack Obama may find himself the butt of a lot more jokes after Tuesday night.
News Copy feels like taking a post Election Day train ride.
GOP to New York: Drop Dead
The RNC and the NRCC and the McCain campaign and House and U.S. Senate races throughout the nation need donor dollars more than Republican candidates here.
New York is statistically irrelevant -- and the Beltway tends not to like us.
Chris Lee in Western New York, who is running for the seat vacated by the retiring Thomas Reynolds and Randy Kuhl in Central New York will be the beneficiary of some financial consideration by the national party ...
... But Republicans nationally haven't been sending much money into New York for more than a few election cycles ... and taking MUCH more from us.
The Empire State sent over $25 million to Republican candidates trying to get into the White House; $12 million and counting to John McCain, nearly $10 million to Rudy Giuliani and over $2.7 million to Mitt Romney.
Republicans raised a total of $713,153,304 this year, including $103,858,383 for House races.
Republicans Kuhl, Lee and incumbent Rep. Peter King raised over a million. Sandy Treadwell cornered the market with nearly $7 million, most of it his own money.
18 Democrats raised over a million dollars, with two more closing in that seven figure mark. Two raised over $2 million, two more are closing in on that number and two others (Charlie Rangel and Kirsten Gillibrand) have raised over $4 million.
Those are 26 well-funded Democrats whose clout flows across the ballot, down to State Senate and Assembly candidates. Before anyone said Obama, New York's Democrats already had the campaign financing deck stacked -- and that's without considering the financial influence of having two U.S. Senators in their party (and the Governor of New York State, and control of the State Assembly, and the Attorney General, and the Comptroller -- and, of course, monopolistic control of the New York City Council and most of the five boroughs (except Staten Island).
The GOP is pulling up stakes in Connecticut and New Jersey (where New York shares its office for the statewide McCain 2008 operation). 2-1 for Obama in New York. The State GOP seems to have taken a vacation too. County GOP operations around the state defer their campaign financing to national political marketing operations that soak up New York's dollars like the Russian and Japanese scraping the ocean bottom for fish.
42 electoral votes in 1972. 47 electoral votes in 1948. 31 today and less in four years after the census.
The decision by national Republicans to focus on a smaller group of races underscores the degree to which the party is on the defensive not only in New York but also in New Jersey, Connecticut and many other states. The national party is short on cash and is being forced into the difficult position of deciding where to continue to fight — and where to effectively surrender — as the election enters the final days of campaigning.
“Tough decisions have to be made,” said Representative Peter T. King, a Republican from Long Island, who conceded that the party was seeking to minimize its losses. “You have to decide who comes off life support and who gets a massive infusion.”
Governor Asks Congress For Another Bailout
One would think that with all clout in Washington, Democrats would get what that wanted from the federal government.
"This could be because people really enjoy political commercials — the longer, the better. Or because television programming has become really bad. Or maybe it’s a combo meal. Whatever it is, it worked for Obama."
Ross Perot drew 22 million in 1992.
The vice presidential debate drew 73 million.
Sarah Palin's midnight appearance on Saturday Night Live was watched by 17 million.
Jon Stewart had some fun with Obama on The Daily Show.
Jon Stewart brought up the Bradley effect -- and Obama deflected it with some humor.
"I don't think white voters have gotten this memo about the Bradley effect"
Someone should pen a memo on the reverse Bradley effect.
Early-voting Democrats are outnumbering Republicans at those sites by more than 20 percentage points, Time magazine reported exit polling and 30 percent of Florida's 11.2 million registered voters will have voted by the actual November 4 election day.
"Florida does hold some good news for McCain and the Republicans in the run-up to next Tuesday. The GOP is certainly behind in early voter turnout, but its registered voters have mailed in more than 15% more absentee ballots than the Democrats. (Republicans also requested far more of Florida's 1.6 million absentee ballots, about 793,000 compared to 573,000 for Democrats.) It's a big reason that despite the Democrats' large early-voter lead, the party holds only about a six-point edge over the GOP in Florida based on which party early voters (including absentee ballot voters) are registered with. (The votes themselves aren't actually counted until election day.)"
More important, registration doesn't dictate who one votes for ...
In many states and many parts of battleground states, it's no mystery that massive cross-sections of Democrats vote for Republicans -- particularly on conservative issues.
Fred LeBrun of the Albany Times Union, right here in New York State, reminds us that it's "put up or shut up" for Americans who've complained for years they've been disenfranchised.
We're seeing long lines, the result of that and of numerous breakdowns of various new voting machines many states are using for the first time. Put these together and an atmosphere is created where voting is a lot more work than it ought to be.
If duplicated again and again in voting districts across the country, could this have a chilling effect on new voters particularly, and drive them away? Perhaps. Could it turn the election? I wouldn't think so, but who in their right mind could have conjured as a real possibility the nightmare in Florida in 2000?
New and potential voters may be left feeling dissuaded by the clunky process; turned off, skeptical and disillusioned.
The old story comes to mind of a stranger finding a kid sitting on a curb in Chicago crying his eyes out. The man tried to console the boy but the boy wouldn’t stop crying. “There, there, nothing could be that bad,” the man sad to the boy. “Yes it can. My daddy died three years ago and I hear he came back to life to vote and he didn’t even bother to say ‘hi’ to me,” said the boy.
Weyrich detailed that the Obama campaign has 30,000 lawyers ready to challenge the election in any close state. The McCain campaign having 5,000 lawyers for the same purpose.
With Acorn under investigation in Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- registering 3 million "new" voters since 2004 -- the recipe for chaos seems to have already been set in motion.
It's a good bet that some of those "early voters" relying on either "faulty" computers or paper ballots will be dead or fictional voters. Two weeks of electronic and voter fraud could turn this election into litigated farce -- affecting approximately an estimated 30 percent of the final tally.
Just check out The Brad Blog and it's take on H.A.V.A. (the "Hack America's Vote Act") if you have any doubts about how unstable the 2008 election may already be.
Figure Valentine's Day by the time everyone has this mess sorted out.
Jeffrey Goldberg intelligently plays devil's advocate here:
I don't think it's entirely necessary for me to explain, once again, why I believe that Rashid Khalidi is not a danger to the Republic. I also don't think I have to rehearse the controversial idea that Barack Obama was not, in fact, the Hyde Park chapter president of the PFLP-GC. (That was Rahm Emanuel.) But there's a video out there of Obama saying kind things about Khalidi, and on the general principle that information in an open society shouldn't be kept secret and that the voters should make up their own minds about whether or not they trust certain candidates, this video should be set free. But a pro-censorship organization called the Los Angeles Times, which has the tape in its possession, is hiding it, for reasons it won't fully explain. And it's looking more and more ridiculous each passing day.
Of course, all this depends on who you think is the political devil here.
Unfortunately, McCain and the associated campaign make allegations Obama and socialism (that McCain now seems to rebut), all the while their V.P. candidate made statements on "sharing the wealth" just weeks before she was selected as McCain's running mate. The comments on Professor Khalidi are similarly strange as, while McCain funded Khalidi's work (including one grant totaling nearly half a million dollars) in a relationship extending back to the 1990's, McCain now sees fit to not only use a relationship of Khalidi and Obama as a tactic, but also to raise dubious claims that the professor "was PLO".
The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg, who we criticized last night for arguing that the LATimes should break its promise to a source and release a videotape of a party attended by Palestinian prof Rashid Khalidi (left) and Obama, still doesn't seem to be able to get his arms around the idea of a source who gives stuff in confidence that he wouldn't give if there weren't confidence.
If it was really much ado about nothing, releasing the transcript would have been a harmless gesture on the part of the source and the reporter ... and everyone who attended the public gathering.
Feld’s spokesman William O’Reilly responded: “Are they sure they’re polling the right district? This is the 37th, home of the highest property taxes and lowest state school aid in America. Everyone we talk to is fed up and ready to make a change.”
New York is numb. The Empire State is in a political coma. This is autocratic stasis. They just don't care anymore. They're burnt out after nearly 35 years of lawmakers ignoring then Governor Hugh Carey's warning that "the days of wine and roses" are over!!!
Westchester is the highest taxed county in the United States -- and Oppenheimer's district has most of the higher taxed voters in the region.
... and $300 million wouldn't change people's minds this year.
New York State will be a rout for Barack Obama, for the Democrats and for the thieves across the state in either major party who rely on voter malaise to get elected.
It feels like it is over, especially with the sniping that commenced against Sarah Palin by her own fellow Republicans -- and conservative pundits aren't helping either.
The last poll by Siena had this race 61-24 for Oppenheimer.
Sources within Feld's own team of consultants had her polling only 10-15 points behind Oppenheimer a month ago.
So much for the consultants.
This is nothing new for the State Senate Campaign Committee, except it should be fairly noted that our source was not part of that group. Also, our sources in both parties had laid out in detail how this was never going to be a winnable race. Feld chose to run anyway, with the numbers against her, and the GOP majority chose to take a chance on her.
Perhaps this is a "two-race" strategy for Feld, as Westchester Democrats believe.
$300,000 is a lot of money. It's not the most money the State Senate Republicans have poured into a losing race. The GOP in Albany has spent a million on primaries where they would lose 3-1 -- and against far less funded candidates.
Oppenheimer rules the roost in a liberal State Senate district whose registration is overwhelmingly Democrat. But 63-29?
Saw a clip from the tape. Reason we can't release it is because statements Obama said to rile audience up during toast. He congratulates Khalidi for his work saying "Israel has no God-given right to occupy Palestine" plus there's been "genocide against the Palestinian people by Israelis."
So the Los Angeles Times has determined that knowing what the next President of the United States actually said about Israel and Palestine is not newsworthy?
The Los Angeles Times can (and should) keep their promise to a source but why did they bother breaking the story as if something compelling wouldn't allow them to share the evidence of the above statements?
The transcript ...
... Doug Ross was told that the newspaper will not let a transcript get out.
All of a sudden, I'm reminded of that movie, Face In The Crowd, where Patricia Neal turns the sound on in the television studio to allow America to listen in on the truth about their hero.
The paper hasn’t explained its unwillingness to release the video, and Peter Wallsten, who found the tape and wrote about it, declined to discuss it with me last night. He forwarded an e-mail that the paper has sent readers who have complained as conservative blogs raise the issue.
“Over six months ago the Los Angeles Times published a detailed account of the events shown on the videotape. The Times is not suppressing anything. Just the opposite — the L.A. Times brought the matter to light,” wrote the readers’ representative, Jamie Gold.
L.A. Times spokeswoman Nancy Sullivan wouldn’t discuss the decision not to release the tape in detail.
“When we reported on the tape six months ago, that was our full report,” she said, and asked, “Does Politico release unpublished information?”
The answer to that question is yes — Politico and most news outlets constantly make available videos and documents, after describing them in part, which is why the Times’ decision not to release the video is puzzling. My instinct, and many reporters’, is to share as much source material as possible.
Ben Smith pulls no punches.
Where is this story going?
Probably nowhere, since Election Day will be on top of us before the news cycle has a chance to digest the facts -- and it could all backfire on McCain.
“The market reaction was muted, which in and of itself was impressive given the strong rally yesterday,” says Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank. “We don’t expect bottoms to occur after a single point in time — they’re another step in the direction of getting things back on track.”
Obama's informercial felt too much like ... an informercial. At least he didn't try to sell anything.
Political consultant George Stephanopoulos started his analysis of Obama's prime time buy by calling it a "virtuoso performance" and maybe that's why themusic felt like a made-for-tv movie.
All that was missing was the sound of ocean waves hitting the beach to calm the viewers.
"This was a very highly produced, technically incredibly competent half hour of television."
Stop the madness. It was boring, George, and I would bet the ratings were awful. $3 million would have been better given away to charity.
"What you saw here was a highly competent, professional, virtuoso performance. The fact that they could go 28 minutes in and hit live to a campaign rally in Florida and right down to the final Obama Biden logo even showed a rising sun. One of the things the campaign knows is that the most optimistic presidential candidate always wins."
Full of himself.
Ironically, George Stephanopoulos dared mention Ross Perot had some money to do a similar type of infomercial but he had "a very, very primitive production" in 1992. Primitive but effective.
Let's Go To The Videotape
Bloggers nationwide aren't letting go of the L.A. Times refusal to release the videotape of Barack Obama with Rashid Khalidi.
Some critics have questioned why Wallsten would agree to withhold the videotape, which purportedly shows Obama with Rashid Khalidi and other Palestinians who expressed criticism of U.S. and Israeli policies. These critics note that Wallsten was allowed to describe the gathering –- a going-away party for Khalidi — in his story, so why can’t he release the tape in full?
This aspect of the debate, while perhaps interesting, is nonetheless irrelevant. Again, a deal is a deal, even if it’s a dumb deal. Besides, there may be a perfectly legitimate reason for withholding the tape, such as the possibility that it contains footage that would compromise the unnamed source’s identity.
Yes. The source might be afraid of being killed by terrorists.
The source might also be lying by omission, hiding something he or she said or did wrong. Given the legal parameters of the Wiley case (Katherine Wiley of Bill Clinton infamy) on sources who lie, ruled on by the U.S. Supreme Court, maintaining the deal might support a dishonest omission.
Saw a clip from the tape. Reason we can't release it is because statements Obama said to rile audience up during toast. He congratulates Khalidi for his work saying "Israel has no God-given right to occupy Palestine" plus there's been "genocide against the Palestinian people by Israelis."
Apparently, not even the transcript will ever see the light of day.
Here is a snapshot of the early voting in key states:
Florida: About 2.6 million people have already voted in a state where absentee ballots overwhelmingly favored President Bush in the razor-thin 2000 election. Among those voting so far this year, 45 percent are registered Democrats and 39 percent Republicans.
North Carolina: About 1.6 million people have already voted — 54 percent are registered Democrats and 29 percent are Republicans. About 100,000 newly registered voters have signed up and voted at North Carolina's one-stop voting centers, McDonald said. Among them, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 2-1, he said.
Iowa: About 340,000 people have already voted — 49 percent are registered Democrats and 29 percent are Republicans.
Colorado: About 815,000 people have voted — 39 percent are registered Democrats and 37 percent are Republicans.
Nevada: About 342,000 people have already voted in Clark and Washoe Counties, which contain nearly 90 percent of the state's population. Among those voters, 53 percent are registered Democrats and 30 percent are Republicans.
New Mexico: About 111,000 people have voted in Bernalillo County, the state's largest. Among them, 55 percent are registered Democrats and 33 percent are Republicans.
Georgia: Black voters make up about 35 percent of those who have already voted — a big increase from the 2004 election, when 25 percent of the state's electorate was black. Blacks voted for Obama by ratio of 9-1 in Georgia's Democratic primary this year.
Not a word about California or the actual tabulations so far.
Also, the AP put forth its analysis from 7 of 32 states with forms of early voting.
More thoughts on the Feld/Oppenheimer race in the 37th State Senate ...
This came from an older post off the Albany Times Union blog Capitol Confidential, courtesy of a constituent in Suzi Oppenheimer's State Senate District who rightfully asked how Liz Feld will be able to bite the hand that feeds her.
Fiscal reform is a Republican/Conservative issue. Of course, State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos could risk getting into a public debate with the only Republican out of Westchester County. It would turn Feld into a hero, a statewide name, and her ascendency would be even more rapid.
So it's likely that Liz Feld will get everything she wants from State Senate Republicans, who won't risk losing this seat -- and won't risk making the Larchmont native bigger than them.
New Siena Poll Coming
Politics on the Hudson posted that the results Siena's second State Senate poll will be released Thursday.
This is the same poll that found Suzi Oppenheimer trouncing Liz Feld 61-24 percent. News Copy's sources confirmed that Feld was only 10-15 points behind the alpha grandma a few weeks ago. Also, every reliable source among Republicans has admitted that the Oppenheimer district is the "impossible dream" and overwhelmingly tipped for a Democrat.
In theory, this would have been Suzi's race if she had taken a year-long vacation. And Feld knows that, as does all her operatives and ever key Republican in Albany. Finally, it's been an open secret among Democrats that some sort of deal was hatched to replace Suzi with another Democrat before petitions were finalized or after Election Day.
Yeah ... Oppenheimer might be running to hand over the seat to George Latimer or Amy Paulin or someone else.
So this could be a "two-race" strategy for Ms. Feld, a preparation for the true contest in 2010.
Thursday's poll results in Westchester won't be 61-24 again. That's for sure. (Editor's Note: Oh boy, were we wrong ... 64-29)
Why is it that New York is the only state to push Medicaid costs onto its counties?
The state should fully fund its share of the Medicaid program. I would suggest, as I did in a second resolution that passed the county Legislature last week, that the fairer way to pay for health care for the indigent is for the state to spread the cost through the state income tax. Everyone should pay their fair share. My resolution called for an increase on the highest tax bracket — for those earning $1 million or more per year in taxable earnings. I think that is much fairer than expecting local property taxpayers to shoulder the cost of a state program.
Hughes noted that his idea would bring about a 50 percent reduction in the Schenectady County property tax levy.
Another tax.
Why not just reduce what Medicaid covers and address all its costs? Why not address the fraud -- estimated to be ten percent or more across the state?
Start with the salaries of Medicaid-related employees. 1199. The unions must tighten their belts too, certainly salaries freezes and perhaps across-the-board cuts in salaries/benefits. Of course, such talk in New York is anathema to the party line in Albany.
However, they supported Democrat William T. Stachowski in the 58th (well, sort of), who appears to be trailing behind Republican Dennis Delano. It was a backhanded endorsement.
The Buffalo News outlined ten criteria/issues:
Experience: Generally speaking, it is better to know how government works. Taxes: Lawmakers must resist intense pressure to raise taxes in the nation’s highest taxed state. Spending: All areas must be subject to potentially significant cuts. Member items: The practice system, which bolsters incumbents, has become too expensive. It needs to be ended. Unfunded mandates: Albany has to pay the costs if it is going to foist requirements on lower governments. Redistricting: Gerrymandered districts discourage competitive elections and prolong the state’s decline. The job must be done by an independent, nonpartisan committee. Budget process reform: Rank-and-file lawmakers need to be more involved in the budget process, which, itself requires more time. The State Comptroller should determine the amount of money available to be spent. Ethics reform: Legislators now investigate themselves. Authority needs to be given to an independent body. District issues/specific goals: This category allows candidates to show their knowledge of state and local needs.
It's a good overview of basic civics. Too bad Albany finds every possible way to do the opposite.
Western New York's State Senate races should be a more pronounced story once the Siena Poll is released Thursday.
$11.2 Million to be Mr. or Ms. Smith Going To Washington
The class in civics always skips the chapter on campaign fundraising.
Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell has spent $6.9 million on his challenge to first-term incumbent Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand -- who has spent $4.3 million.
That's $11.2 million, the most expensive Congressional race in the nation.
"That's $11.2 million for a race where the largest media market is Albany and where most parts of the 10-county congressional district are rural communities stretching from Dutchess County to Saranac Lake. In no other race in the country have candidates raised more money or spent more, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign contributions."
One wonders what the going rate for a Congressional seat in Westchester County must be.
The most spent for the Congressional seat presently held by 14-term incumbent Nita Lowey was $1.6 million by the fellow she defeated in 1988, former two-term Republican Congressman Joe DoGuardi.
The most spent for Westchester County Executive was probably $3 million or more by Republican Tedd Dunn in 1997, who was defeated by Democrat Andy Spano -- who is still there (and who expects a serious challenge next year by Republicans).
But still count on counties using the economy as an excuse to raise your property taxes.
"The biggest factor, according to an analysis by Gannett News Service, appears to be an increase in tax revenue from the spike in gas prices over the summer. Counties get about roughly 4 percent on the sale of a gallon of gas; the state caps its portion of sales tax on gas at $2 per gallon."
They made their as tax revenue likely by July, the latest, and the rest has been municipal gravy.
"If things remain flat for the fourth quarter, we'll still be slightly ahead for the year, but we don't know what is going to happen in the fourth quarter," said Susan Tolchin, spokeswoman for Westchester County, which has had a 3 percent growth in sales taxes this year -- up about 2 percent from projections.
Translation: "Flat" means there will be no loss in revenue -- yet watch as the argument is made for next year's budget to increase property taxes to compensate for a supposed loss in revenue.
"Ford To City: Drop Dead" is the first thought that comes to mind.
The second thought concerns the U.S. Constitution, which theoretically doesn't provide for such outright bailouts of the states ... as if that ever stopped Congress from spending more of our tax dollars.
Finally, imagine the governors waiting in line for a federal handout?
Marist College Institute for Pubic Opinion has found that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is a formidable statewide contender for governor, according to their most recent poll.
Formidable statewide contender?
If the election was held today, Bloomberg would be elected governor.
Marist also measured Bloomberg faring better than former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani trails behind Paterson 51-42 percent.
That's against Paterson, with 57 percent of New Yorkers having a "positive impression" of how he is running the state.
That's going to get worse, perhaps much worse for Paterson, after November 18th when lawmakers start feeding on themselves over spending cuts.
For now, it's Bloomberg. Even after alienating reformers with his hubris over a third term, it's Bloomberg. A lot can happen in two years though ... and a lot will.
In New York City, Democrats enrolled more than 10 times the number of new voters than Republicans: 240,327 Democratic registrations compared to 22,533 Republican registrations.
Upstate, Democrats enrolled 151,770 new voters to 36,062 for the Republican party.
Alan Dershowitz mused on what could only be described as a very late October surprise.
"A simplistic view of freedom of speech would favor full and timely disclosure of all relevant information regardless of any promises made to a source. The more complex view of freedom of speech holds that unless newspapers keep their promises (and unless the law allows them to keep their promises) there will be less not more information available to the public. Reasonable people can and do disagree about whether the source privilege furthers or hinders the marketplace of ideas. Most experts agree that the First Amendment empowers newspapers to make decisions about this matter. The LA Times has made its decision, whether one agrees or disagrees with it."
The issue here is censorshi, not any promise made to a source.
This is passive advocacy on the part of the LA Times, bias by omission and an omission by source. That's tantamount to allowing a source to lie and/or someone leaving out enough to distort the story. The Wiley case clearly outlined that confidentiality is not valid in instances where a souce has lied.
McCain pollsters expect "Democratic gains among African American voters and younger voters will be offset by higher turnout among more Republican-leaning voters. They also assert the race is tightening in battleground states, with independent voters increasingly receptive to McCain."
"As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday," McCain pollster Bill McInturff wrote in a memo released last night by the campaign. Obama officials voiced confidence in their ultimate victory but said they have always expected the election to be close.
"This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24 (see trends)."
"If Republican Greg Ball were one-quarter the reformer that he claims to be, we would eagerly endorse him for a second term as Assemblyman for the 99th Assembly District. But Ball, who is running on the Republican, Conservative and Independence lines, has been mostly sizzle and little achievement. His contrarian antics have done nothing to alter the tone in Albany or advance the interests of district residents. What they have done is considerable damage to local governance, helping spawn a whole slate of copy-cat, get-little-done elected officials, candidates who ran for office using Ball's trademark anti-illegal immigrant ranting."
Like the usual suspects in office have an original, get-done approach to governance?
Hardly.
The Journal News might as well endorse Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver out of Manhattan to run in Putnam County.
The newspaper has a problem with Ball's stance on immigration. Admittedly, it's an issue that demands caution and tolerance -- not reactionary techniques or knee-jerk responses either.
The true problem here is that Greg Ball is not your typical politician and maybe he comes across as too slick and media-savvy for the tastes of some. Also, he's been able to spur the media to cover issues that otherwise were neglected before he came along.
"Ball, to his credit, has excelled at bringing issues to the forefront. But in these tough economic times, voters need Albany leaders who can not only point out problems but also work with others to enact solutions."
So Assemblyman Ball does not play well with others in our State Capitol? GOOD!!!
What part of "the most dysfunctional legislature" in the United States does the editorial board of The Journal News not understand? Or do they have to witness a municipal depression that so taxes the surrounding economy that the lightbulb doesn't go off in their corporate offices until the then-descreased ad revenue turns their news room into scorched earth?
They don't get it. To be fair, this liberal newspapers coverage of county government has finally acknowledged fiscal problems. They were ten years too late.
The politicos are trying to destroy Greg Ball, fixating on any speck of scandal they can stick to him. The Journal News endorsed a man who won't get a mention here, since he has preyed on the negative and opportunism almost from the first day of his campaign. Short of calling Ball's opponent a stooge for the political machines, it should be instead noted that the challenger's obsession with tearing down this Republican reformer went nowhere in a September primary.
Ball won with over 70 percent of the vote. The people spoke. No one should be throwing stones at Greg Ball -- unless someone wants to throw stones at all the constituents who voted for him.
If Greg Ball has done anything for the Hudson Valley, he has dared to make a noise about Albany's dysfunctions and he has raised the awareness among an otherwise sleepy Republican establishment.
Considering that the legislative district covers the heart of Gannett's daily readership across New York City's northern suburban, one might argue that this is THE endorsement to get in Westchester County.
"Feld promises energetic bipartisanship, putting taxpayers first and speaking out whenever she can at Albany's inertia. We think she can be. If Feld wins, however, she will have to prove her independent mettle. The state GOP has contributed significant dollars to push her candidacy over the line."
Just like that liberal newspaper to endorse someone and then remind the voters that her party is the evil empire.
Down 61-24 less than a month ago in a Siena poll, a poll disputed has contradicting State Senate GOP polls showing Feld with 10-15 point, this is sizing up to be a true nail-biter.
The Journal News finally articulated about Suzi Oppenheimer the obvious:
"Oppenheimer, even after 24 years of service, much of it behind the scenes, insists that her minority status in the Senate has precluded her from being more of a force in reforming Albany, generating more tax relief, leading on more significant legislation. We don't buy it. With that length of tenure under her belt and being a clear personal favorite among voters - some of her elections haven't even been contested - Oppenheimer should have long ago carved out a leadership role for herself in the Westchester-Putnam-Rockland delegation, regardless of her minority status. Instead, what New Yorkers get from her is a "what-can-you-do?" shrug."
The "alpha grandma" has a well-worn act but a well-cultivated following.
Gannett's words will rouse Oppenheimer's base -- and there's plenty left of it.
To Feld's credit, she hasn't been shy about criticizing Republicans.
"It's not just one party that got us into this mess.'' Indeed. Democrats in the Assembly, in concert with Senate Republicans, have managed to create stasis, in which each house passes bills that the other rejects, and major reforms and protections remain unaddressed year after year.
Her ascendency has deconstructed a Republican heirarchy in her village, for example, but she's taken nearly $300,000 from the State Senate Campaign Committee.
This bunch has an annoying habit of sabotaging their own candidates. Like State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos making deals with the teachers union, while simultaneously running Feld as a reformer for a school tax cap. Thanks guys ... with friends like that in Albany, who needs enemies?
The Journal News endorsement is a coup of sorts for Feld, and vindication. At stake could be control of the State Senate Majority, as much as polling over the past month indicated the GOP has that under control. More important, it's good to see a high-energy candidate with new ideas and an independent approach supported by the local daily newspaper.
50 or 30 years ago, even 20 years ago, such an endorsement would have helped to win an election. It still might, except Westchester residents -- predominantly Manhattan commuters -- are reading The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Post and New York Daily News. They're news junkies watching CNN, MSNBC and FOX News.
Feld and Oppenheimer duke it out tonight on Westchester's Cablevision News 12, a debate that likely be be upstaged by Obama's infomercial ...
"If - IF - Sen. Barack Obama can take Florida, he could match or come close to President Bill Clinton's re-election margin in 1996, carrying all three of the big swing states en route to rolling up 379 Electoral College votes. The last challenger to win the Big Three was Ronald Reagan, who tallied 489 Electoral College votes in his 1980 landslide," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
However, Quinnipiac does show the leads shrinking:
Florida: Obama 47 to McCain's 45 percent, compared to 49 - 44 percent October 23; Ohio: Obama up 51 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 38 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 41 percent, compared to 53 - 40 percent last time.
"With six days to go Sen. Barack Obama is holding off what appears to be a too-little, too-late move by Republican Sen. John McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but the Democrat's two-point lead among likely voters in Florida leaves that state too close to call, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today."
"This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24 (see trends)."
"The daily numbers were essentially unchanged from yesterday, with just a slight improvement for Obama," pollster John Zogby said. "The race is frozen in place for now."
Six days left.
Palin's Future
The media needs a happy story to cover (or run for cover), if McCain's campaign should start to tank in the next few days, and it appears Sarah Palin is IT.
"A civil war that is simmering will break out into the open if McCain loses, and the party will have to decide what they want to be in the post-Reagan world," said Gloria Borger, a senior political analyst for CNN.
This is really all about abortion but no one wants to say to0 loudly, since Republicans agree to disagree on this issue (hiding the knives behind their backs)
Brent Bozell, president of the Media Research Center, a conservative group, called it a “top order of business” to determine Ms. Palin’s future role. “Conservatives have been looking for leadership, and she has proven that she can electrify the grass roots like few people have in the last 20 years,” Mr. Bozell said. “No matter what she decides to do, there will be a small mother lode of financial support behind her.”
Catch this statement by Matthew Dowd, a former Bush strategist, who told the Times that Ms. Palin’s challenge was to show substance.
“She’s an attractive woman who can give a great speech, but the American public doesn’t view her much beyond that,” Mr. Dowd said. “She’s vastly unpopular among moderate and independent voters, and while she could be in a position to be popular among an increasingly smaller Republican Party, she’s got to figure out a way to extend that and figure out a way to strengthen her weaknesses.”
That's also a bias against a cross-section of America apart from the urbane and suburban media centers, as if "big city" America and its sleepy suburbans knows better about running the ship of state than someone from Alaska.
Liberal and elitist Republicans aren't the only ones who dislike Palin's inner diva.
Does anyone really think Palin would be where she is today - one of the four people closest to taking a seat behind the Oval Office desk - if she looked like Madeleine Albright?
Or put another way, can you picture Hillary Clinton - or any other female pol of substance - winking and simpering like Palin?
Today, Helen Kennedy of the Daily News is the anti-Campbell Brown.
When a woman flops at a high-profile endeavor - whether it's mismanaging a sure-thing Democratic primary campaign or repeatedly screwing up the details of vice presidential duties - it's all too easy to blame sexism.
That insults and demeans all the women trying to make it on ability and hard work in what remains largely a man's world.
Helen Kennedy pulled no punches adding that women have become Palin's biggest critics. She pointed to an ABC poll that had found Palin's favorability rate falling 24 points among "the independent women she was supposed to attract to the ticket."
Adele Stan asks the question: Can you be a supporter of Sarah Palin and still be a feminist?
"In an apparent diversion from answering the question of how a feminist could possibly support an anti-choice ticket that also opposes legislation that would lengthen the statute of limitations in pay discrimination suits, Elaine Lafferty, in an essay appearing on The Daily Beast, admonished as sexist other feminists who challenged Palin's intelligence. This she conflated with actual sexism directed at Palin by male commentators. Nice try. But just because men (including right-wing men) have made sexist comments about Palin, and a few feminists, for good reason (given the media record), have mistaken Palin for being less intelligent than she is doesn't mean that Palin's a feminist. It just means she's a woman (a.k.a, sexism target) who can't name her least favorite Supreme Court cases, or tell us what magazines she reads."
It's obvious that women aren't in agreement about Palin, particularly women in the media (this would be a nice time to consult with The View) -- but it's worse than that.
News Copy will return to Adele Stan's commentary later today, since it's focused on something else more volatile that both the left and right sides of the media has surprisingly overlooked.
The right and the left aren't done throwing building blocks at each other.
"However, while McCain has closed the gap, virtually all the movement comes from an increase in his support rather than a loss of support for Obama. This is the third straight poll showing Obama’s support at or above the 50% level."
The undecideds in PA are being heard and they want John McCain.
As we enter the final week, this election is not yet over. Zogby shows Obama’s lead collapsing from 12 points on Thursday of last week to just five points over this past weekend. Other polls have Obama’s lead in the 5-7 point range, little enough ground to close in six more days. Only surveys that have quotas for large number of Democratic participants show Obama’s lead to be in double digits.
Beware polls that oversample Democrats or Republicans. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the country by roughly 7 percentage points. But because of the random nature of telephone polling, some surveys interview more Democrats or Republicans than there are in the general population. Some pollsters, like John Zogby, adjust their numbers to account for partisan differences. But others, like Gallup and ABC, do not. So, look carefully to see that the partisan makeup of the polling sample reflects the voting population.
... And most responsible for this "nightmare" in the New York State Legislature will be re-elected.
$12.5 billion doesn't touch how bad the debt could be, once they honestly factor in off-budget items like the public corporation debt.
News Copy spoke to one respected lawmaker from Westchester who pointed to those 60 State lawmakers elected in New York City who are near-impossible to defeat.
Term limits, anyone?
Just as Tom Golisano is gearing up to go after those politicos in the five boroughs, all of a sudden the Erie County Board of Elections wants him to testify about how his money gets around.
If only the bureaucrats went after taxation as aggressively as they scrutinize campaign finance.
News stories are starting to label New York a "Republican killing fields" as Congressional and State legislative candidates brace for the Obama wave across the Empire State.
The incredible shrinking GOP Congressional delegation of New York.
Democrats have a 5-to-3 voter registration advantage that has only grown in recent years, and now hold 23 of New York's 29 seats in the House of Representatives. Gone are the Rockefeller Republicans, named after the state's socially liberal, fiscally conservative former governor, Nelson Rockefeller.
Rockefeller -- fiscally conservative?
First of all, Rockefeller had a Congressional delegation of 42 ... So many New Yorkers "voted with their feet" moving to other states -- to escape the high income taxes during his tenure and the loss of jobs due to the onerous taxation on businesses -- that the Republican base of voters had already started fleeing before Mario Cuomo was elected governor.
Second, the seeds of the massive public corporation debt and entitlement costs were sewn under Rockefeller. It only would get worse under Cuomo and no better under Pataki (in some respects, it became worse under Pataki). The fiscal time bomb of Medicaid was started by Rockefeller in the 1960s.
Finally, there are still plenty of liberal Rockefeller Republicans around. They're Democrats functionally, proven by Pataki (a liberal in a conservative costume), and many of them even vote for Democrats depending on the issue. Many fiscally-sane (and conservative) Republicans are among those who feld the state for Connecticut -- where they abolished county goverments nearly 50 years ago. Others went where their employers fled.
Now the Congressional delegation is 29 and it will be 25-27 by 2012. Democrat or Republican, New York State has lost its clout nationally. The few Republicans left are doggy paddling against 50 years of liberalism.
"By the way, John McCain doesn’t like to mention the fact that under my plan...the tax burden would be lower than it was under Ronald Reagan," Obama added. "I don’t know if John McCain thinks that Ronald Reagan was a Socialist."
The tax burden won't be any better with a liberal Democrat in the White House.
Obama doesn't like to mention that without President Ronald Reagan, the staging ground for ANY form of tax relief and reform would have been near-impossible.
It's certainly not going to happen with a machine Democrat from the corruption of Chicago politics -- or with the current (and future) Congress.
With a notable late-afternoon "lack of selling pressure, the buyers began to ride in on their horses, and that brought in some additional buyers and short- covering," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management.
They quoted Jesse Taylor at the liberal site Pandagon, who rightfully seemed "amused rather than concerned" about supposed Republican gains:
"There are about 24 million registered voters in California. Even assuming a ridiculously low 50 percent turnout, that places the number of voters for the November 4th election at 12 million. This means that the 210,000-voter harbinger for Democratic doom constitutes 1.75 percent of voters in a low turnout election. Why might you have low Republican-leaning early voter turnout in a solidly blue state? Logic would dictate that since nobody’s putting money into early voting efforts there, the pool that’ll turn out is essentially random. And tiny."
Only problem with that logic is as follows ...
Polls work off samples of 400-600 more voters or more.
That's a mighty big sample -- 210,000 actual voters -- and an accurate one at that.
The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18-point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. ... With nearly 210,000 people having voted, the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama, then the race is incredibly close.
Seems like a fluke but these are actual human beings voting.
What doesn't seem to be a fluke is the Internet "traffic" that has swooped down upon the online news cycle.
8. He's African-American. Let's be honest. In this rotten year for the Republican brand, if a white Democrat were sitting in the polls where Obama now sits, this "how he might lose" talk would be absurd.
It's not. But it is misleading. Join me Thursday and I'll tell you eight reasons why he'll win anyway.
The following story in the Los Angeles Times blog, L.A. Now, entitled: Any chance California goes from blue to red? -- also had a problem with Internet "traffic" as the story was posted.
Over the weekend, one McCain adviser said Palin is "going rogue."
"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," a McCain adviser told CNN. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party."
Now political consultants are channelling Sarah Palin's family, as if some elitist campaign advisor has been living with the Palin family for ten years?
It's good that Palin is going rogue.
Some of these politicos within the GOP heirarchy have been due for a spanking since they flubbed the 1992 election -- and again ruined the party in 1996 -- and ruined New York State and other states for the past ten years.
Ask anyone who knows Republican politics. This is old news but valid for discussion now as McCain's campaign obviously has started going at each other's throats.
So Sarah Palin will be the "fall guy" for the GOP's failures?
Conservatives will blame McCain for being a moderate "marshmellow" and liberals in this elephantine structure will blame Palin for being too conservative.
Campbell Brown had her own thoughts on Palin's sense of independence, and the CNN journalist applauded her for going rogue -- and lent positive insight to the term diva.
Could it be the chauvenist pigs in the Republican Party can't take a woman with a mind of her own?
"'You see, apparently the McCain campaign is frustrated with Palin. They say she is "going rogue" -- not following orders, speaking for herself without running it past their people first.'
About time ...
Campbell Brown lays out what is ostensibly a non-political issue for many women:
Let's just start with the word diva. It is obviously a sexist slight -- a term that is only applied to women, almost always in a derogatory way. It's usually applied to women who are viewed as overly ambitious. It is applied to demanding women, to women who follow their own path.
There is really no equivalent word for men -- except maybe "successful."
So, with that in mind, I applaud Sarah Palin, or any other woman, for embracing her inner diva and "busting free" of what she believes is a damaging situation.
But it is political too ...
" ... If it were Mitt Romney, Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge standing in your shoes right now, being mismanaged the way you feel you are, I can assure you they would have tapped into their inner divas and tossed those advisers aside a long time ago."
Perhaps not ... since I have personally witnessed male candidates as easily ruined by the control freaks in politics.
This verbal canabilism is not uncommon as a campaign runs out of money.
"Outside his campaign, meanwhile, McCain is getting abandoned by all the Republicans who usually pronounce themselves "troubled" by Republican tactics. If McCain weren't running for president, and it were some other Republican who had attacked Obama for his associations and picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, surely McCain himself would be on some Sunday show clucking his disapproval."
"The verdict shines a light on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight, and that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service," she said.
"Obama emphasizes that he would cut taxes for people with incomes below $200,000. Interestingly, though, he would not cut any tax rates on ordinary income. Instead, he would grant various tax credits and phase them out as people's income increases. This means, ironically, that although many people's taxes would be lower under Obama, their marginal tax rates would be higher. Within the income range over which the tax credit phases out, for every additional dollar the person makes, he loses some of the credit, adding an additional tax rate on top of the statutory tax rate. This means that not just high-income people, but also many modest-income people, would have a reduced incentive to make income under the Obama tax plan."
Let's just start with the word diva. It is obviously a sexist slight -- a term that is only applied to women, almost always in a derogatory way. It's usually applied to women who are viewed as overly ambitious. It is applied to demanding women, to women who follow their own path.
There is really no equivalent word for men -- except maybe "successful."
So, with that in mind, I applaud Sarah Palin, or any other woman, for embracing her inner diva and "busting free" of what she believes is a damaging situation.
Some of these control freak Republicans who run roughshod over people (and call anyone who disagrees with them a "rogue") have earned a swift kick in the pants since the waning days of the first Bush in the White House.
"In fact, a review of all Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling conducted in October shows a race that has remained quite stable despite the frenetic pace of campaigning, massive amounts of campaign ads, and daily media coverage of the latest campaign tactic or gaffe."
The devil is in the details here, as Rasmussen noted a widening lead for Obama in Ohio:
"In Ohio, it’s Obama 49% McCain 45%. That’s an improvement for Obama compared to a week ago when McCain led by two. In the Buckeye State, Obama’s support has been between 47% and 49% in each of the past five weekly Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls. This is the first time that McCain’s support has fallen below the 47% level since weekly polling of the state began in early September."
As for Florida, Rasmussen measured Obama ahead of McCain again, 51% to 47%.
Both Presidential candidates increased their discussion about the economy, as the last week of this election appears likely to get more frenetic and media-driven.
This would be a nice week to go somewhere where there isn't a computer, newspaper, radio or television.
"He is more interested in controlling wealth than in creating it," McCain said. "Sen. Obama is running to spread the wealth; I'm running to create more wealth. Sen. Obama is running to punish the successful; I'm running to make everyone successful."
"In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street," Obama told voters.
The second administration of Jimmy Carter is about to commence.
Take a closer look at Obama's view of the Warren Court:
"The Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth and sort of more basic issues of political and economic justice in this society. And to that extent as radical as I think people tried to characterize the Warren Court, it wasn't that radical. It didn't break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the Constitution, as least as it's been interpreted, and Warren Court interpreted in the same way that generally the Constitution is a charter of negative liberties, says what the states can't do to you, says what the federal government can't do to you, but it doesn't say what the federal government or the state government must do on your behalf."
A "charter of negative liberties" -- Our Constitution -- and "the Warren Court, it wasn't that radical."
But Obama's "fundamentalist" name-calling is misplaced. Originalists understand the Constitution--not "our democracy"--to be "fixed and unwavering" (apart from the amendment process it provides, of course). They recognize that, precisely because the Constitution leaves the broad bulk of policy decisions to legislators in Congress and in the states, there is lots of room to pursue and adapt different courses through the democratic processes. No originalist believes that judicial respect for the operations of representative government will guarantee that "we will be rewarded and all good will flow." This is a straw man. The virtue of originalism lies foremost in protecting the democratic decisionmaking authority that the Constitution provides. Our legislators will be sure to mess up plenty, but at least citizens will have the ability to influence them--and replace them.
Obama sounds like one of those radical counter-culturalist lefties who is indeed speaking like an "ugly American" -- who feels more inclined to apologize for democracy than work with it.
According to the court documents, Cowart, 18, and Schlesselman, 20, are white supremacists who met on the Internet a month ago and began discussing a violent plot to kill African Americans, including Sen. Obama.
Investigators say the men admitted to discussing "killing 88 people and beheading 14 African Americans." They wanted to generate money for their plot by robbing houses and a local gun dealer, to get weapons for a "killing spree." A law-enforcement official says the two described themselves as Nazis and had swastikas and other Nazi-related symbols painted on their car.
The men were in possession of a sawed-off 12-gauge shotgun, the complaint states. And they had discussed using a .308 cliber rifle "to facilitate their attempt to assassinate Obama," the document adds.
The bus pinned him and his bicycle to the pavement at a Midtown intersection. He underwent three days of emergency operations and received more than 60 pints of blood.
He was taken to NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, where doctors spent several days just trying to keep him alive, then began to treat extensive damage to his right shoulder, pelvis, both legs and a foot, and repair severe injuries to his torso and gastrointestinal system. He needed skin grafts and muscle grafts, and parts of his body had to be rebuilt.
This is an amazing story, a great comeback for the son of New York State Conservative Chairman Mike Long.
The Iona College alumnus described his personal struggle to not just run again -- but live again.
“I was crying and saying, ‘I wanted this, I planned on that,’ and finally I just stopped and said, ‘I will run again.’ ”
Anyone who knows the Long family, also knows their gritty determination and resilient character.
Dick Morris predicted a shift a week before Election Day for John McCain but a "stable" race as characterized by Gallup could be a frozen scenario that works entirely against the U.S. Senator from Arizona.
... And this is where we're either wading in statistical minutia ... Or waiting for that elusive "tipping point" to show itself in the polls.
Indiana (11) 6.2 percent -- 5.8 percent undecided West Virginia (5) 9.9 percent -- 9.3 percent undecided
It's Obama's to lose.
"While his lead over Republican John McCain is less than three points in Florida, Missouri and North Carolina, these results still point out the daunting task McCain faces to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election."
"McCain is well within striking distance in each of the six states in which he trails. None of Obama's leads are outside the margin of error. However, unless McCain can take one of the big states won by John Kerry in 2004, such as Pennsylvania, he needs to win these six states. He might be able to survive the loss of Nevada, but probably not any of the others." - John Zogby
The fat lady hasn't sung yet but that "tipping point" is probably a day or two away.
"Striking distance" won't be enough if McCain runs out of money to sustain the lead in states -- like Georgia and previously North Carolina -- that were a "sure thing" six weeks ago.
The governor of New York State resigned last week, or at least the "man behind the curtain" having more control over Governor Paterson's routine in the Executive Chamber than anyone wants to admit.
Disgraced ... that's his footnote, and his margin of victory in 2006 will only be a trivia question years from now, so no Democrat should crow too loudly about any rout.
The Albany Times Union had this column on "getting jobs amid red ink" -- and additionally notes that former State GOP chairman Bill Powers has left the state. He's headed to Massachusetts, where the property taxes are lower. Voting with his feet?
"Steps to curb runaway county spending could have and should have been implemented years ago. There would be no need for layoffs had this administration and the Democratic majority not increased the county workforce by 8 percent (300 positions) over the past three budgets. These new positions, averaging $80,000 each with benefits, increased employees by 77 last year at a time when private industry was downsizing. Last December, the Republican minority sought to eliminate many of these new positions before they were filled."
Westchester County Deputy County Executive Larry Schwartz last week dared the GOP to tell Democrats where to trim the budget.
Democrats have gotten fat here, bureaucratically sloppy and exponentially more wasteful on patronage than the naysayers ever could nail the prior Republican administration.
"The Democratic majority spends hours debating whether restaurants should post the number of calories in a cheese burrito; whether and for how long it should be legal to let your car engine idle; and the proper way to fertilize one's lawn. The board chairman (William Ryan, D-White Plains) and vice chairman of the board (Michael Kaplowitz, D-Somers) pen "op ed" pieces calling for reform and responsible budgeting, yet the majority leader (Martin Rogowsky, D-Harrison) sojourns in Scotland on taxpayer funds while they refuse to discuss dismantling unnecessary bits of county government. Among the items exempt from Democratic reform and responsible budgeting are the Tax Commission, the Consumer Protection Board and the Human Rights Commission. These agencies are either unnecessary or duplicate a function done at other levels of government."
Present County Executive Andy Spano walked into the County Building on a promise to cut property taxes 15 percent -- but taxes are up over 60 percent during his tensure. That's a nearly 75 percent increase in property taxes on his watch -- an overlooked and unreported statistic.
Finally, November 18th is coming and News Copy sources predict a lot of posturing by Democrats but as much indecisiveness by Republicans on what to cut -- or, at least, what they truly intend to cut.
"Because of what is happening to the New York economy and to Wall Street in particular, with all the losses to so many people there, Shelly doesn't believe this is the time to be raising a tax on the wealthy, many of whom are a lot less so," said a source close to Silver, a Democrat whose Lower East Side district also includes Wall Street.
Ohio's polls have shown a range of 3-12 points over the past week -- with Obama leading -- and it probably would be the heartbreaker for McCain now if Rasmussen (McCain by 2 percent on 10/19) or NBC/Mason Dixon (McCain by 3 percent on 10/17) showed Obama taking the lead.
Georgia could be a battleground state in 24 hours, the same way North Carolina seems to be snatching defeat out of the hands of victory for GOP strategists. But Democrats could also lose control of Pennsylvania the same way over the next 24 hours -- and what turns in Western PA could turn in Ohio too.
"If you are keeping count, since 1940, the candidate getting a majority of the newspaper endorsements won nine elections. The candidate ending up on the short end of endorsements won seven elections."
Newspaper endorsements in New York only show one daily for John McCain ... The New York Post.
It's the economy, stupid, and it's the property tax burden too. Democrats have almost a monopolistic control over County and State government in this sleepy suburb.
Westchester is a bastion for liberal Democrats, despite the worst taxation record in the nation -- with worse fiscal news only weeks away as the State Legislature meets on November 18th to gut what's left of Albany's golden goose. By the way, there are no Republicans among the Westchester delegation of State lawmakers.
Democrats should take credit for this fiscal fiasco and all the debts to come.
McCain might due surprisingly well in many pockets of the county (Yonkers, Eastchester, Cortlandt and Mount Pleasant) and the rest of the Hudson Valley above Rockland and Westchester should be Republican friendly.
But the highest taxed county in the United States, Westchester, is the most liberal suburban stronghold in New York State. It doesn't make sense. At least The Journal News has been going after the County Government (all run by Democrats, with the exception of a handful or less on the County Board -- including a few Republicans who act like Democrats sometimes).
"At the very minimum, arguments will probably be made for curbing employee overtime and for calculating pension benefits on base pay alone. Indeed, the payroll list has already been greeted with an incredible burst of outrage and fascination. Since the data was posted last week on the newspaper's Web site, Lohud.com, it has attracted tens of thousands of "clicks.""
News Copy's Bob Fois will appear this morning on WVOX (1460 AM) as a guest on former New York State GOP Chairman Tony Colavita's call-in radio show from 10:00-11:00 am.
You can call in at (914) 632-0110 and discuss any topic, particularly the Presidental race or any aspect of New York State politics and Westchester County.
Fears about Paterson's ability to personally handle the state's budget crisis have focused on his flip-flops, misstatements and, possibly, outright lies about when and what he knew about O'Byrne's tax evasion, and what, if anything, he did about it.
At the heart of the fear is the growing view - which first emerged in the newly inaugurated Paterson's revelations of sexual philandering and related questionable use of his campaign funds in March - that his first instinct is to lie about a problem and his second is to fudge.
The New York Times had this story on the cost of higher education -- and SUNY as the cost-effective alternative for a growing number of families.
"Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama's are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy," pollster John Zogby said.
A Siena College poll last month highlighted six races, showing two downstate Republicans — Sens. Serphin Maltese and Caesar Trunzo — in tight races. Two newly elected Democrats senators — Long Island Sen. Craig Johnson and North Country Sen. Darrel Aubertine — who won their seats in special elections had significant leads.
Republican Sen. Joseph Robach, who represents most of Rochester and its major suburbs of Greece and Brighton, held an 11-point lead over Democratic challenger Richard Dollinger, who held the seat before Robach captured it in 2002.
The tightest race in Upstate, the poll showed, was the battle between Democrat Joe Mesi and Republican Michael Ranzenhofer. They are vying for an open seat that stretches across Erie and Genesee counties and being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Mary Lou Rath.
In Westchester County, Republicans have fielded visible challenges to State Senators Andrea Stewart Cousins and Suzi Oppenheimer -- and have spent at least $300,000 on Liz Feld's race against Oppenheimer to what appears to no avail in the liberal suburbs. Cousin's challenger John Murtaugh is forecasted to do worse.
The Senate Republican Campaign Committee spent more than $1.6 million in September, according to filings. $314,465 went to Maltese, followed by $183,454 for candidate John Murtagh.
Lot of money. Most of the dollars just leave the GOP doggy paddling.
One reversal of fortune for Democrats has so far come with Sen. Bill Stachowski, who seemed like a sure thing, but recent polls show him trailing Republican Dennis Delano by double digits.
“Upstate New York is a very smart place to play,” said Erick C. Mullen, a Democratic consultant and veteran of races in the area. “You can get so much more purchase with your money. It is a ripe place for an upbeat campaign to go.”
It used to be that political consultants could predict the outcome of a national election from Erie County. The NY Times pjointed out that it is the economy the has once again turned it into New York's tipping point.
Western New York’s political volatility is fueled by a mix of factors, some of them long in the making and others unexpected. Financial uncertainty is perhaps the biggest factor in the region, which is already one of the most economically troubled parts of the state and stands to be hurt disproportionately by New York’s fiscal crisis, posing difficulties for incumbents of both parties.
“The kindling is an electorate in western New York that is profoundly pessimistic,” said Bruce N. Gyory, a political consultant and former lobbyist who has advised Republicans and Democrats. “The match is an economy that, while in recession, seems to carry the political impact of a depression.”
Meanwhile, that kindling hasn't sparked a fire in New York City's northern suburbs -- where a political malaise prevails.
News Copy attended the last debate between "Mrs. Oppenheimer" and "Mayor Feld" (that's how the candidates wanted the League of Women Voters to address them).
Oppenheimer blamed the Republicans. Feld, at times, tried to channel being a Democrat or "bi-partisan" in response to changing Albany. Though Feld's fiscal conservative message made sense (and Oppenheimer's finger pointing didn't), the reality is that Westchester probably won't "get it" until that county government is brought to its political knees by a humbling municipal default.
Next year? Sen. Oppenheimer quoted that there could be a $7 billion shortfall.
Paterson will threaten cuts to education and healthcare, to force a reaction from the special interest lobbies.
“The governor, like the Legislature, understands that education is the way we really have the best chance of reigniting the economy,” said Richard Iannuzzi, president of the New York State United Teachers. “If you decimate education, you drive the economy in the wrong direction.”
It's a political minefield that neither side will cross, at least before Election Day.
Listening to the debates of State lawmakers, it's clear that Democrats will go after the prisons and tax credits to business (along with economic development grants). Republicans will want across-the-board five percent cuts -- but both sides are dancing with the teachers union and fearful of a revolt by PTA moms and dads.
There's a scandal too, an income tax scandal and a scandal too close to Governor Paterson with a trusted aide -- now finally resigning -- who was identified as "the whole operation" for New York's executive branch.
Other Paterson administration insiders described the governor as "agonizing" over the decision to force out O'Byrne, who was not only his top aide but also a good friend.
Making matters even harder was the lack of an heir apparent.
An official close to Paterson said he understood the need to have O'Byrne resign, but said finding a replacement could be difficult.
"The scary thing about this is that O'Byrne has been the whole operation for Paterson," the official said.
The State Legislature re-convenes for an emergency session November 18th.
Recent Comments