When I predicted Sarah Palin would be the GOP running mate over nine months ago, before anyone even guessed she would be under consideration, my fellow political rocket scientists were telling me I need to have my head examined.
In the same New York spirit, I will go out on the limb to say that Kirsten Gillibrand is the frontrunner to be our next U.S. Senator.
With Andrew Cuomo my second pick.
Ironically, they each have the least elected experience of anyone considered for the position.
New York Power Rankings
The Albany Times Union blog Capitol Confidential had the following "power" rankings from Congressional Quarterly on New York's Congressional delegation.
Some observations on the power calculations:
First, it won't be a pro-life Democrat and likely not a visible conservative Catholic politician.
Joe Crowley won't be appointed U.S. Senator nor Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi. There has already been some heavy lobbying by abortion advocates, women's advocates, minority advocates, upstate advocates ...
... Liberal advocates will have the last word on this U.S. Senate pick.
Second, the more powerful the Member of Congress, the less likely he or she will be plucked. New York needs that representation.
Nita Lowey has more clout and more value to New York remaining in the House as a "cardinal" on the Budget and Appropriations Committee.
This should have been Lowey's U.S. Senate seat, nearly ten years ago. It would make sense to hand it to a woman from New York's sleepy suburbs but sleepy is an understatement here.
For all the control Democrats master over Westchester and the Tom Suozzi's own rule in Nassau, Lowey has no heir apparent downstate. Lowey hasn't cultivated a successor. In a state where women's issues are paramount, the power elite is still predominantly a boy's club. Hillary Clinton sort of jumped the line, came from another state and hasn't yet cultivated her own understudy.
There isn't a farm team -- with much of the political blood in the State Legislature as old.
Can Democrats afford to part with a veteran lawmaker to fill Clinton's seat?
Third, demographics are deceptive:
This is upstate New York's time for a key federal appointment, especially since the body politic throughout the Empire State is top heavy with New York City powerbrokers. Think Buffalo or Schenectady, not anywhere within the five boroughs or likely its suburbs either (though Steve Israel or Suozzi from Long Island and Lowey from Westchester would expand the statewide totals for Democrats).
Louise Slaughter could have an advantage here, as would Brian Higgins (so would Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown) but the dark horse is Kirsten Gillibrand.
Fourth, it could be a minority but it won't be.
Buffalo's Byron Brown could have the fast track here -- but he probably won't (which perhaps does not say much for New York's supposedly progressive political culture). Brown's a natural pick for other reasons encompassing his urban base. Brown is a mayor of the state's second largest city, a powerful urban demographic in itself, and that would give him a simpatico with urban areas across the state (think Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany, Poughkeepsie and the urban ring of Westchester's smaller cities -- Mount Vernon, Peekskill, including parts of White Plains and much of lower New Rochelle and south Yonkers).
Also, Brown's challenges in Buffalo deal with lower and middle income strife across all racial groups in Western New York.
Fifth, it will be a woman who can raise money and whose political pedigree can be gene-spliced with politically correct power groups.
Gillibrand. Carolyn Maloney and Lowey are the political veterans within this realm, except Gillibrand is media-ready and has proven herself formidable in a short span of time.
The problem with Maloney, Lowey and Slaughter is age.
Gillibrand at 41 might be considered too young, maybe.
Sixth, the next U.S. Senator will either be someone who Democrats have privately decided must be removed from Albany -- and/or someone the Beltway insiders have design on controlling.
Cuomo. Suozzi might steal some fire here but his conservative stances make him anathema, for the time being, to the political leanings in the U.S. Senate. Andrew Cuomo is ready made for Washington and his departure from Albany would free up a lot of political spinning wheels.
Finally, it may not be someone from within New York's Congressional delegation.
Cuomo. Choosing Brown would facilitate something historic for New York's long-neglected upstate cities. Tom Suozzi might be the most qualified pick outside the Congressional delegation but Governor Paterson wouldn't risk a contrarian choice on abortion.
Buffalo, Albany and Queens
News Copy views this as an extremely close horse race between Andrew Cuomo, Byron Brown and Kirsten Gillibrand. This is as much a competition between upstate and downstate.
Upstate is going to win this time, as might the minority and Mayor Brown could be the surprise pick.
I personally hand the edge to Gillibrand but this is Andrew Cuomo's turn at bat. More important, Cuomo in the U.S. Senate would be the shrewd pick by Paterson and remove his single greatest obstacle to remaining governor. However, Gillibrand raised over $4 million in a Republican district -- against a Republican challenger who raised over $7 million -- and there isn't a political animal in the 50 states who has drawn that kind of national money for a House race.
All the talk about Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is both symbolic and endemic of what Cuomo is up against.
Cuomo is a reliable political brand. Much depends on how the legacy of Mario Cuomo casts a wider shadow on his son.
This could be good and this could be bad.
Andrew has moved far from that shadow and Paterson is best served by getting his potential competitor out of Dodge. In a state where the next State Senate Majority Leader could be governor, Cuomo is already a scandal away from the Executive Chamber.
After Paterson, there are plenty of others who just want Andrew to go away -- and the U.S. Senate is a good place to keep him.
Andrew's climb up the political ladder has been slow, steady though seemingly daunted at times in both the state and nation's capitols. After his failed gubernatorial run in 2002, a comeback seemed impossible yet he prevailed far beyond expectations in 2006.
Now the former governor's son is at the head of a very crowded pack of Democrats, some self-important and other names floated vaguely.
Cuomo may have to get past a political natural in Gillibrand to step into the U.S. Senate. News Copy predicts that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will be the least of his problems.
Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand might be the only farm team player in New York State capable of surmounting the boy's club (and, ironically, she is also from an extremely well-established political family within Albany's political machine). Gillibrand could become a New York powerhouse. The right individual securing this U.S. Senate appointment could be running for President in 15-20 years or less.
She didn't raise $4 million with just a pretty smile. Then again, Cuomo fashioned an impressive comeback to first secure the nomination for Attorney General in 2006 and then went on to win convincingly in 2006.
The two actually have the identical number of years (2) in elected office.
Cuomo's edge is obvious. He has seen and experienced more of government than most heads of state.
The Player
If Democrats want to keep the seat and cultivate a national player, Gillibrand is the pick.
If Democrats want a local player whose turf and dominant concerns will always be New York, Andrew Cuomo's ascension would be productive.
... But Gillibrand's upstate compass tips the scale in her favor, dramatically. Cuomo's five borough base is an edge, politically, but Chuck Schumer and Paterson already bring those votes to the table.
What would be missing from the statewide ticket is a woman, an upstate native who is media smart and fundraising capable.
Enter Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand, whose political stock is about to rise.
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