Democrats are pulling out the liberal guns in New York's sleepy suburbs to stave off any further tea party upsets.
House Reps. Nita Lowey and John Hall know what is at stake in New York City's suburbs.
Three of four special elections for State Assembly seats are expected to be won by Republicans, due to a growing tea party presence in Westchester and Long Island.
David Singer of Scarsdale offers an insightful analysis in The Huffington Post, aptly entitled "Reading The Tea (bagger) Leaves ..."
Republican Michael Montesano is expected to win Nassau County's 15th Assembly District, as is Democrat David Weprin in Queens County's 24th in a perennial liberal bastion. However, Suffolk's District 3 with Republican Dean Murray against Democrat Lauren Thorden and Westchester's 89th with Republican Bob Castelli against Democrat Peter Harckham could score additional victories for the G.O.P. that would have been political funerals in previous years.
In Westchester, a win would be further vindication for that county Republican organization:
"The Democrats have a 10,000 registered voter edge over the Republicans, but in a special election all bets are off. Harckham and Castelli are known in the northern Westchester part of the district -- but have limited name recognition in the higher-populated southern end. This too is a jump ball and will depend on the GOTV effort waged by each candidate."
Sources have told News Copy that Congressman John Hall has dedicated his staff and himself to helping the Democrat win in the lower reaches of his own 19th Congressional District. It's also no surprise to learn that former Congresswoman Sue Kelly and her husband were manning the phones for Castelli.
"A victory by Castelli would prove last year's landslide by Rob Astorino in Westchester was no fluke. It would change the assessment by donors and national Republicans alike on dozens of state legislative and congressional races throughout New York and the northeast."
At stake is a vulnerable spike in the heart of a liberal "gentry" region that Democrats in New York or federally cannot afford to lose any ground. The bottom line is that a victory by Castelli would prove that last year's landslide by Rob Astorino (57-43%) to become county executive was no fluke. It would also change the assessment by donors and national Republicans alike on dozens of state legislative and congressional races throughout New York and the northeast.
"... If the Republicans take back AD#3 with Murray and AD#89 with Castelli, this will be a sign of trouble for the Democratic party up and down the line, likely accelerating the exit of David Paterson from the gubernatorial race, and indicating better odds to the Republicans retaking control of the State Senate in November."
These special elections are the game changer in a state supposedly claimed by liberal Democrats....
The Yonkers Tribune covered Harckham being endorsed by eleven-term incumbent Nita Lowey, whose 18th Congressional District covers the lower portion of the 89th, and Hall, whose 19th Congressional District covers most of northern Westchester.
Schedule F - Harckham 2010
Take a look at this - Hall's district director T.J. Rogers is on Harckham's campaign payroll.
He has also been at train stations in Mt. Kisco and Chappaqua with Hall and Susan Spear.
Posted by: Jacque Ball | Sunday, February 07, 2010 at 03:55 PM