News Copy, New York

GOP Primary Certain In New York's 19th: Nan Hayworth Continues Attacking McFadden

A five candidate Republican primary is forming in New York's 19th Congressional District.

It's not too different from the four candidate candidate in Long Island's 1st and and the two man wrestling match in Brooklyn-Staten Island's 13th.

Congressional candidate Nan Hayworth has a lot of company in this race.

The Mount Kisco native also has a lot to say about one of her opponents, Republican David McFadden from Orange County.

"Mr. McFadden has never voted in a Republican primary, and according to the
New York State Board of Elections, is not a registered Republican.  New York
State law requires that candidates be a member of the party in order to vote
for themselves in a primary.

Mr. McFadden anouncement today leaves me wondering if he is aware of New
York State Election law, and I am also curious if Mr. McFadden has paid the
most recent of several tax liens filed against him by the State of New
York."

-Jay Townsend, spokesperson for Dr. Nan Hayworth

So it looks as if Nan Hayworth isn't angling for the independent vote in this election.

Jay Townsend is her man behind the curtain.  He's an able and successful political consultant.  I have worked with him, for him and he has shown up to help my friends put out a few fires over the years.  Townsend's also good at starting them, both when he worked for Democrats and Republicans, so the body politic here is fascinating.

McFadden's campaign has been patient and so are the other candidates who have felt stung by Hayworth supporters in recent days.  It also seems more than apparent that Hayworth, Inc. is taking aim at taking down News Copy -- killing the messenger -- but we're sorry to report that Bob Fois is not running for Congress.

And I am not working for any candidate in this race, at least not yet (and will disclose if that happens).

It wouldn't make a difference anyway.  This is a free country and I'm free to help or support or ponder or criticize or comment on any candidate I want ... within reason.  No fires being set here though.  Gosh ... I just finished criticizing my friend Rob Astorino in the prior column.  News Copy will never be a mutual admiration society.

News Copy finally caught up with Tom DeChiaro yesterday and enjoyed his candor.  DeChiaro an articulate and civic-minded type who could surprise the Hudson Valley this summer.  Also, Kristia Cavere has begun to aggressively campaign (and raise money) -- and Neil Di Carlo struck most of our counterparts as a gentleman.  All appear ready with access to money.  All appear articulate and willing to put forth a campaign.

I guess the point I am making is that the 19th is steeped in quality candidates.  May the best man or woman win.  There's no need to rush the timetable and voters should be given an adequate chance to meet and hear all of them.  Perhaps it is Hayworth's anxiety to slam the political barn door shut so early that has so many observers nervous.

It would be a shame if negative energy turned what otherwise would be a rousing triumph for Republicans into a gutter battle in the 19th.  But the same scenario is being repeated all over New York, and undoubtedly all over the United States.

Five well-funded Republicans, four pro-life, two from Orange County, two from Putnam County and one from Westchester all want to challenge two-term incumbent Democrat John Hall.

Frankly, it all has started to resemble the pile-on in New York's 20th last year -- that weakened Jim Tedisco's candidacy against Scott Murphy.  It won't be too different from the three-way shooting match in 23rd last year that found a liberal Republican endorsing a Democrat over a Conservative.

Putnam County Tony Scannapieco acknowledged that all political committee chairs have never seen so many eager Republicans stepping to the plate as candidates.  Scannapieco is a wise and weathered chair who knows all about competition in his home county, one of the fastest growing places in New York.

The Putnam chair reminded a crowded in Putnam Valley at that GOP committee's St. Patrick's celebration what happened last year in the 20th and the 23rd.  Scannapieco wasn't shooting down the idea of a primary but he cautioned how critically important it would be for all Republicans to pull behind the nominated and/or eventual candidate in any election -- whether it be for State Senate, Assembly or Congress.

I am paraphrasing but Scannapieco basically said it would be a good idea if GOP candidates played well with others and worked as team players when all was said and done.

Primaries are good and primaries are bad, if handled the wrong way.

The warnings of the 20th and 23rd are still with us -- and must be heeded.

23rd Congressional District Lingers As Tea Party Fuse: Will Republicans Embrace Hoffman?

After last year's three-way race in New York's 23rd Congressional District, one would believe Republicans would immediately rally behind Doug Hoffman -- who did more with less on just the Conservative line.

There's an argument for Hoffman as a candidate for efficiency's sake, for local appeal and the fact that he is clearly one of American's natural tea party candidates.

In a year where tea party groups will have their backs up about endorsing any candidates (I will have more about that later), Hoffman is the natural for them.  As Dean Murray gets his third round of free media on FOX News for winning a special election on Long Island for an Assembly seat in New York, tea party activists who became candidates are in a rarified category.  That's about to change.  Many more are about to show up.

But Hoffman was an everyman candidate before tea parties were catching on fire last year.  He coincided with the movement's rise and his populist support is the real thing.

So are Republicans in New York State going to rally behind this guy -- or does it have to be another trip to the dentist?

Hoffman was at the Conservative Party's CPAC in Washington, D.C. this past week, reported the Syracuse Post-Standard.  Conservative State Chairman Mike Long was standing right next to him.  This is an "in your face moment" for the conservative movement.  Some Republican leaders understand the value of this conservative movement.  Others refuse feel that they are being made to eat crow.

Richard Pollack, Washington Bureau Chief for PJTV (Pajamas Media), saw Hoffman as an early rallying cry. 

“Doug Hoffman is the poster-child for what is happening in America right now,” Pollock said as his crew worked the CPAC convention floor.

“He was pre-Scott Brown (the GOP candidate who captured the late Ted Kennedy’s U.S. Senate from Massachusetts seat in January) and pre-Massachusetts,” Pollock said. “He is a man who was a little ahead of his time. And we want to hear about it.”

Pollock said Hoffman tapped into voter discontent with the established political parties in Washington and the growing size of government. “He was reflecting a national trend,” Pollock said. “He was the anti-politician and I think he is still the anti-politician.”

Talking Points Memo mentioned Hoffman as the candidate who could unite all Republican factions -- but some members of the media want more of these "in your face" moments to antagonize the G.O.P. nationally.

The mainstream media is also looking for "Being There" moments to embarrass tea party candidates.  Some reporters aren't going to be kind about it.

Local Machinations

News Copy has learned that Republican county leaders around the 23rd are still pushing Assemblyman Will Barclay.   Hoffman was extremely well received by Conservatives in D.C. but we're hearing that the State GOP still won't pull the trigger on Hoffman's candidacy.  As one former Pataki operative noted to News Copy, Barclay couldn't win a State Senate seat when he was handed that opportunity on a silver platter.

Less than a month ago, Barclay was calling Hoffman "arrogant" for stating that he will stay in the race if he is not the Republican Party's choice.

“Doug Hoffman needs to quit acting so arrogant and state clearly and unequivocally whether he will support whichever candidate Republican primary election voters decide they want to be our candidate for Congress against Democrat Bill Owens.”

Meanwhile, The Valley News reported that Barclay has his own problem at his back over his Assembly seat.

Four candidates have shown up to run for the 124 District Assembly seat "in the event" Barclay chooses to run in the 23rd.

Barclay hasn't dropped out of that race yet --  nor has Barclay made the formal decision for 23rd.

Yet he's calling Hoffman arrogant?

 

Wanted In New York: Real Republicans And True Conservatives To Run For Congress

Congressional Quarterly mistates the situation in New York with its "surplus" of candidates running for Congress.

In the 19th, for example, the problem is simple.  Nan Hayworth has the money ($519,000) but also the "potential baggage" drawn from extreme pro-abortion ties.

Urban Elephants was a bit more blunt:

NRCC Gives UP ON NY-19 -- Candidate "Unimpressive"

Dan Peterson, the outgoing Manhattan Young Republican Chairman, had heard similiar whispers out of Washington, D.C. that News Copy's sources have been sharing for three weeks now.

Actually, we had heard MUCH worse, not from the NRCC but more direct commentary on the following:

"The NRCC sees Hayworth as a tremendously unimpressive and uninspiring candidate who has not warmed to local party support and is considered too liberal to get the grassroots base excited. The NRCC is now realizing that she was really only taken into consideration because of her wealth and not her ability to network throughout the district..."

The point being that New York better wake up about what constitutes a true Republican candidate, let alone a true conservative candidate.  Peterson was attacked by pro-abortion Republicans in New York City, a common theme these days between Republicans in New York, and precisely what plagued the 23rd last year.

Politico indicated that another rift looms in the 23rd, where Doug Hoffman is not getting Republican support after nearly winning last year as a Conservative!

New York Republican operatives want Will Barclay, who has the credentials and the location and probably looks more like a candidate than Hoffman.  But there's a problem, a systemic one.

"The drawback is that he lost a Republican-held seat in a closely watched 2008 state Senate special election. And the two most recent congressional GOP nominees with backgrounds in the New York Legislature — Scozzafava and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, who lost to Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy in another special election last year — have fared poorly."

There is a breed of Republican strategist in New York who suffers from fear and loathing about parts of the Republican platform.  And they keep losing elections (and make a lot of money in the process).

If they were horses, it would be time to shoot some of these RHINO-like consultants.

One can only hope/pray/beg that the usual suspects running campaigns into a politically correct Bermuda Triangle are not given permission again by Dean Skelos to ruin Republican chances in the State Senate.

Congressional Quarterly described the line in the sand as the jockeying for New York's third party endorsements.

Orange County Chairman Bill DeProspo said that for a Republican, running without the Conservative Party endorsement is akin to political suicide. “In the state of New York, if you think you can run for a congressional seat without the Conservative line and without the Independent line, you’re just not paying attention,” he said.

DeProspo himself is indicating a run against Hayworth -- but there are whispers of at least three strong (and well-financed) pro-life Republicans possibly challenging Nan Hayworth to a primary.

For pro-life Republicans, this is not complicated.  For conservative Republicans, this is a relief.  For Republicans who know a real Republican and a true conservative will win in their locales, this is common sense.

In a column entitled, Dede Deja Vu?, Raquel Okyay of Ulster County remembered that it was a liberal State Senator in the 23rd who ambushed Republicans over gay marriage and abortion by endorsing the Democrat over Hoffman in the closing week of the campaign.

"No one could have predicted that the Republican-endorsed candidate Dede Scozzafava would drop out of the race just three days before the election, endorse the Democrat and burn the Republicans, but what happened is more than just a bad turn of events, it is a result of choosing the wrong candidate to begin with. And it appears they are about to make the same mistake in New York’s 19th Congressional District race this year."

It's not just the 19th and the 23rd headed for a primary.

Congressional Quarterly noted how Republicans Michael Grimm, a former FBI agent, and Michael Allegretti, a former aide to New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) are both running for Rep. Michael McMahon’s (D) Staten Island-based 13th district.

Bloomberg aide versus a a Guy Molinari backed F.B.I. agent?  Allegretti is well-liked but in residential Staten Island, Bloomberg versus the former Borough President is a no brainer.  In New York, it's instead going to be a costly primary.

The NRCC has only elevated one New York candidate to contender, Randy Altschuler in the 1st against tea party plagued Democrat Tim Bishop.  But even Altschuler apparently faces a primary against as many as three candidates.

Raquel Okyay's advice to State GOP Chairman Ed Cox in the 19th is simple enough:

a) Look for a candidate that is not a wealthy liberal;
b) Is likable enough to get the support of the tea party and conservative movement; and
c) Is serious about real change in New York and in Washington.

"Mr. Cox – it’s a pop-up, put your glove out and catch the ball!"

Of course, there is the train of thought that competitive Republican primaries will rouse the G.O.P.'s base in this year of tea parties.

Yeah ... tell that to all the donors who will be asked for money ...

 

New York Getting More Attention In Six Congressional Races: Seven Candidates Upgraded By NRCC

The Hotline had listed 28 candidates upgraded by the NRCC to "Young Gun" status a few days ago -- but the expanded list actually has 63 candidates.

The National Republican Congressional Committee's list includes seven challengers from New York in five congressional races expected to be competitive.

News Copy spoke too soon, as did a few of our sources.  Nan Hayworth remains "on the radar" but not elevated to contender.  Hayworth appears on hold for other reasons that sources describe as "potential baggage" and continued negative feedback from party leaders.

Real Clear Politics explained the criteria for the NRCC's "Young Guns" program, who are expected to develop well-organized campaigns to defeat Democratic incumbents.

"These candidates are putting the pieces of a winning campaign in place by meeting the rigorous goals laid out by the Young Guns program and aggressively paving their way toward victory on Election Day," said NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions. "The progress of these candidates is not only a testament to the Young Guns program, it is a sign of the hostile political environment that Democrats have created for themselves."

New York State by the NRCC's evaluation process has no "Young Guns" yet, and only one "contender" (Randy Altschuler in the 1st).

Not to sound sarcastic but the "Young Guns" pecking order seems like a sign of the hostile political environment that Republicans have created for themselves.

Still not upgraded to contender is Staten Island's Mike Grimm, whose robust fundraising and aggressively campaign among Conservatives has turned many a head.  Grimm is "on the radar" in the 13th with Michael Allegretti, joined by Hayworth in the 19th, George Demos in the 1st (still no sign of Christopher Cox), Richard Hanna in Central New York's 24th and Tom Reed in Western New York's winnable 29th.

As for Hayworth's fate, News Copy has identified what sources in D.C. and New York have described as cause for a measurable "conservative backlash" --  but the NRCC is yet to call back with any verification on how real the "potential baggage" might be for the Mount Kisco Republican.

Sadly, sources are hinting that the NRCC may give up on the 19th -- but News Copy suspects New York was never going to get that much help from D.C. in the first place (and many tea party activists helping these candidates have privately expressed that they don't want the NRCC's help).

Still missing from the NRCC's list is the 23rd's Doug Hoffman, who narrowly lost in a three-way race as the Conservative candidate where the Republican candidate became a destructive spoiler in the closing days of that race.

G.O.P. Coming Up Short In New York With Congressional Challengers: NRCC Sees Only One "Contender"

Republicans have at least seven congressional districts in New York that they should target aggressively in 2010, including two seats where John McCain beat Barack Obama in 2008.

Swing State broke out all the Obama-McCain numbers throughout each congressional district nationally, including numbers from the Bush-Kerry and Bush-Gore races.

With only 3-4 point margins of victory by Democrats in 2008, districts 24, 23, 20, 19 and 1 can be taken by Republican candidates.

The only problem is that the NRCC has upgraded only one of them to contender status, Randy Altschuler, a Republican challengers to Democrat Tim Bishop in District 1. 

Hotline reported the NRCC upgrading 28 candidates nationwide to either "Contender" or "On The Radar" but passed on upgrading Nan Hayworth in the Hudson Valley's highly competitive 19th against Democrat John Hall (she stays "on the radar").  Also missing the cut were Doug Hoffman in the 23rd, who narrowly lost to Bill Owens in a three way race in a district where Barack Obama only received 52 percent of the vote.

Strangely ignored though not going away is Christopher Cox (the son of State GOP Chairman Ed Cox) who has launched a formidable campaign against Tim Bishop in District 1, so out of the gate the NRCC already finds itself mired in a GOP primary.  The NRCC put George Demos "on the radar" and something tells me this race on the eastern end of Long Island is getting a lot of volunteers this summer.

In two other districts, the 29th in Western New York and the 13th on Staten Island and a portion of Brooklyn, John McCain won.  With Republican Mike Grimm in the 13th reported to be closing in on $300,000 or more in fundraising, it seems particularly baffling why the NRCC is missing this race where Republicans had ruled for nearly 30 years.  Grimm should be a contender, though maybe the NRCC is afraid of another primary.

As for the 19th, a sure winner for the right Republican, Nan Hayworth is boasting of over $500,000 raised (over $350,000 in personal loans to her committee) but Republican insiders have suggested that no amount of money can buy a populist edge in this distinctly conservative tea party district. 

Apparently, the NRCC agrees that Hayworth is missing something but so is most of New York's Republican establishment if they can't win back these seats.

Update on this post:  We spoke too soon.  NRCC now has "on the radar" candidate in the 29th, 24th and two in the 13th -- but News Copy believes most of them are contenders.

New York Getting More Attention In Six Congressional Races: Seven Candidates Upgraded By NRCC

Consultant's Journal: Politics, Policy and the Business of Reforming Government

Bob Fois

Political Journal
Friday, January 29, 2010

 

The Real Republicans

 

Conservatives from around New York State will be gathering Sunday and Monday in Albany for the New York State Conservative Party's Political Action Conference.

This year is a bit different, following the "Punch and Judy" act that transpired last fall in 23rd Congressional District between arch-liberal Republican Assemblyman Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party nominee Douglass Hoffman.

Following Scozzafava's departure, Hoffman should have been given a clear road -- but the "Pro-Choice, Pro-Union & Pro Gay Marriage Republican" endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.

Conservative insiders are telling me that Hoffman won't have the same third party glow this time, since Republicans are lining up behind Assemblyman Will Barclay.

Whether the battle is over true Republican platform principles is on the eastern tip of Long Island or back upstate in the 23rd, these same battles will be argued over and over this weekend by Conservatives and Republicans alike.

"Many of us take pride in just saying we're the "real Republicans" in New York"

I like to remind my Republican friends that the New York State Conservative Party carries a set of principles that are identical to the RNC platform.  Yet, Conservatives catch flack from liberal Republicans about our foreign platform.  There's nothing foreign or contrarian about being a Conservative in New York.  We adhere to a true Republican platform.

Many of us take pride in just saying we're the "real Republicans" in New York.

Securing that all important Conservative line is critical for Republican candidates, especially this year.  It seems as though everyone wants to run for Congress.  As many are lining up for Assembly and State Senate seats.  As Obama's popularity wilts, so does the competition for Republican seats.

Pick a number ...

New York's 19th Congressional Getting More Crowded: Pro-life Movement Flexing Muscles

Since Barack Obama only won New York's 19th Congressional District 52-48%, two-term incumbent 
Democrat John Hall has to be feeling the heat.  News Copy has learned that the names of at least eight Republicans and one Conservative are being floated for this House seat, including four each from Orange and Westchester counties.

The consistent word from all sources, from most partly leaders and particularly from people "on the ground" is that Nan Hayworth is still not resonating, despite confirmed stories that she is pressuring committee by committee for early endorsements.  Also, Conservatives and Republicans alike understand that the 19th is one of those rare districts in New York tailor made for a true conservative Republican.

And pro-life candidates are stepping forward, partly in protest but also somewhat curious that they can be the next Scott Brown.  It won't be that simple or easy in New York.

Last week, a story broke about a Yorktown (and D.C.) native named Tom DeChiaro "mulling" a run against Democrat Nan Hall in New York's 19th Congressional District.  The North County News quoted DeChiaro taking an openly pro-life stance.

DeChiaro, who is Catholic, said his beliefs will guide him when it comes to making decisions about policy.

“If you are a candidate who believes in the sanctity of life, you have to vote based on your belief, or you have no integrity. When it comes to core values, you can’t have a give and take.”

DeChiaro join Di Carlo in taking an open stance against abortion.  It is speculated that other pro-life candidates are lining up, possibly Conservative Avery Leidner out of Orange County and former Congressman Joe DioGuardi, who lives less than a mile outside the district in Ossining (though News Copy can confirm DioGuardi's interest could be either statewide or again challenging eleven term incumbent Democrat Nita Lowey in the 18th Congressional in lower Westchester).

Orange County Republicans are expected to make their presence known in this race, especially since it is the largest and more dominant Republican portion of the 19th.  Former Tuxedo Mayor David McFadden has declared with $100,000 on hand but the Times Herald-Record reported that he is already catching criticism from Nan Hayworth's campaign -- for his party registration (or lack thereof).

Jay Townsend, a consultant for Republican rival Nan Hayworth's campaign, responded to the announcement by revealing that McFadden isn't registered as a Republican – he has no party affiliation – and that he recently had a $21,441 tax lien filed against him, in addition to past tax problems.

McFadden “hasn't cared enough to register in the Conservative or Republican parties,” Townsend said. “Nor has he cared enough about our community to even pay his taxes and honor his obligations.”

This already has the feel of a competitive primary shaping up.

The North County News blog argued that a primary in the 19th would not help Republicans.

"... The lesson has not been lost on the state Republican party regarding the Democrats winning the Republican stronghold of upstate New York District 23 last November, another humiliating defeat for the old-guard GOP."

It was a liberal Republican endorsing the Democrat that cost Conservative Douglas Hoffman the primary, not the actual primary.

The other possible candidates in the race remain under the political radar or have not formally declared, though numerous sources comfirm that another wealthy candidate is weighing the option of a run and at least another "true conservative" is being courted by Republicans.

G.O.P. Reality Check: 58 Dem Seats In Play With Many Primaries Ahead

The New York Times reported that political analyst Stuart Rothenberg counts 58 Democratic House seats in play.  That's up from 47 in December.  That's a big difference from political analyst Michael Barone's assessment, who forecasted 130 of those districts in play. Republicans haven't lost any ground, with still only 14 seats in play. There is only enthusiasm.

“If you live in a district with no Republican candidate, run for office,” Representative Pete Sessions of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a posting on RedState, a conservative blog.

The problem is that wealthy candidates will be courted by party leaders, for their dollars, but not necessarily for their credentials or ability to serve.  The other problem will be primaries.

The New York Times observed that "deeper intramural divisions are within the Republican Party, a sign of the intensity and unpredictability of the grass-roots conservative movement."

Which is liberal-speak for, conservatives and Tea Party candidates will cost Republicans elections.

"Across the country, Republican candidates are running as outsiders with the backing of conservative Tea Party groups, challenging Republicans identified with the party establishment. Several analysts said the victory in the Massachusetts Senate race of Scott Brown, a Republican who ran with Tea Party support, could encourage more challenges and drive incumbents further right."

This kind of staid conventional wisdom will prompt some GOP leaders to run Rhinos (Republican In Name Only) and other wiser chairs to seek Tea Party independents who speak the same language as the conservatives and libertarians seeking reform/overhaul.

Given Newt Gingrich's presence in New York's 23rd Congressional District race last year against, a three-way that was sabotaged by the former House Speaker's pronouncement for a liberal Republican and that liberal Republican then endorsing the Democrat, such repeat performances are imminent.

Thoug Conservative Douglas Hoffman narrowly lost that election, his re-match against Democrat Bill Owens is not yet getting a clear road from Republicans. The party in New York remains divided as Assemblyman Will barclay has announced that he will run against Owens, forcing another three-way primary.

 
Gingrich created this cult of independence fourteen years ago when he launched the Contract With America and Republicans took back the House of Representatives.

Now he and the Republican establishment want independent challengers to go home?