News Copy, New York

New York Getting More Attention In Six Congressional Races: Seven Candidates Upgraded By NRCC

The Hotline had listed 28 candidates upgraded by the NRCC to "Young Gun" status a few days ago -- but the expanded list actually has 63 candidates.

The National Republican Congressional Committee's list includes seven challengers from New York in five congressional races expected to be competitive.

News Copy spoke too soon, as did a few of our sources.  Nan Hayworth remains "on the radar" but not elevated to contender.  Hayworth appears on hold for other reasons that sources describe as "potential baggage" and continued negative feedback from party leaders.

Real Clear Politics explained the criteria for the NRCC's "Young Guns" program, who are expected to develop well-organized campaigns to defeat Democratic incumbents.

"These candidates are putting the pieces of a winning campaign in place by meeting the rigorous goals laid out by the Young Guns program and aggressively paving their way toward victory on Election Day," said NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions. "The progress of these candidates is not only a testament to the Young Guns program, it is a sign of the hostile political environment that Democrats have created for themselves."

New York State by the NRCC's evaluation process has no "Young Guns" yet, and only one "contender" (Randy Altschuler in the 1st).

Not to sound sarcastic but the "Young Guns" pecking order seems like a sign of the hostile political environment that Republicans have created for themselves.

Still not upgraded to contender is Staten Island's Mike Grimm, whose robust fundraising and aggressively campaign among Conservatives has turned many a head.  Grimm is "on the radar" in the 13th with Michael Allegretti, joined by Hayworth in the 19th, George Demos in the 1st (still no sign of Christopher Cox), Richard Hanna in Central New York's 24th and Tom Reed in Western New York's winnable 29th.

As for Hayworth's fate, News Copy has identified what sources in D.C. and New York have described as cause for a measurable "conservative backlash" --  but the NRCC is yet to call back with any verification on how real the "potential baggage" might be for the Mount Kisco Republican.

Sadly, sources are hinting that the NRCC may give up on the 19th -- but News Copy suspects New York was never going to get that much help from D.C. in the first place (and many tea party activists helping these candidates have privately expressed that they don't want the NRCC's help).

Still missing from the NRCC's list is the 23rd's Doug Hoffman, who narrowly lost in a three-way race as the Conservative candidate where the Republican candidate became a destructive spoiler in the closing days of that race.

G.O.P. Coming Up Short In New York With Congressional Challengers: NRCC Sees Only One "Contender"

Republicans have at least seven congressional districts in New York that they should target aggressively in 2010, including two seats where John McCain beat Barack Obama in 2008.

Swing State broke out all the Obama-McCain numbers throughout each congressional district nationally, including numbers from the Bush-Kerry and Bush-Gore races.

With only 3-4 point margins of victory by Democrats in 2008, districts 24, 23, 20, 19 and 1 can be taken by Republican candidates.

The only problem is that the NRCC has upgraded only one of them to contender status, Randy Altschuler, a Republican challengers to Democrat Tim Bishop in District 1. 

Hotline reported the NRCC upgrading 28 candidates nationwide to either "Contender" or "On The Radar" but passed on upgrading Nan Hayworth in the Hudson Valley's highly competitive 19th against Democrat John Hall (she stays "on the radar").  Also missing the cut were Doug Hoffman in the 23rd, who narrowly lost to Bill Owens in a three way race in a district where Barack Obama only received 52 percent of the vote.

Strangely ignored though not going away is Christopher Cox (the son of State GOP Chairman Ed Cox) who has launched a formidable campaign against Tim Bishop in District 1, so out of the gate the NRCC already finds itself mired in a GOP primary.  The NRCC put George Demos "on the radar" and something tells me this race on the eastern end of Long Island is getting a lot of volunteers this summer.

In two other districts, the 29th in Western New York and the 13th on Staten Island and a portion of Brooklyn, John McCain won.  With Republican Mike Grimm in the 13th reported to be closing in on $300,000 or more in fundraising, it seems particularly baffling why the NRCC is missing this race where Republicans had ruled for nearly 30 years.  Grimm should be a contender, though maybe the NRCC is afraid of another primary.

As for the 19th, a sure winner for the right Republican, Nan Hayworth is boasting of over $500,000 raised (over $350,000 in personal loans to her committee) but Republican insiders have suggested that no amount of money can buy a populist edge in this distinctly conservative tea party district. 

Apparently, the NRCC agrees that Hayworth is missing something but so is most of New York's Republican establishment if they can't win back these seats.

Update on this post:  We spoke too soon.  NRCC now has "on the radar" candidate in the 29th, 24th and two in the 13th -- but News Copy believes most of them are contenders.

New York Getting More Attention In Six Congressional Races: Seven Candidates Upgraded By NRCC

Upstate Congressional Re-Match: Kuhl and Massa

The AP reported the upstate New York Republican Congressman Randy Kuhl is like many incumbents facing re-matches.

Republican Rep. Randy Kuhl (29th Congressional District), who is challenged a second time in his rural New York district by retired Navy commander Eric Massa, said he thinks it is an advantage that his party does not run the House.

"So what people are looking at is a do-nothing Congress that I have no responsibility for, and I can share the public's frustration," Kuhl said.

Massa said this year's campaign is more intense than the last one.

"One of the major differences we have this time, nationally, is an even bigger desire for a new direction. If it was a 7 on the Richter scale last time, it's a 10 this time. That's what's bringing those who traditionally call themselves Republicans over to vote for Barack Obama and Democrats," Massa said.

The Olean Times Herald reported that Kuhl is playing down Massa's lead in the polls, 51-44 (Congressional Quarterly).

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee polled approximately 400 people and found 84 percent of those polled in Kuhl's district said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

But what a week to poll ...

Two years ago, Rep. Kuhl won re-election over Mr. Massa by a little over 6,000 votes (51.4 percent to 48.5 percent) -- and Republicans hold a 50,000 voter enrollment edge over Democrats in this eight-county 29th Congressional District.

But what a year to run again ...

Bear markets aren't kind to incumbents.

News Channel 36 (ABC) in Emira had this video segment featuring Kuhl on the economic crisis.