Joe Spector of Gannett's Albany Bureau has this story in The Ithaca Journal about New York's State Senate battle.
The Republicans control the majority 31-29.
A Siena College poll last month highlighted six races, showing two downstate Republicans — Sens. Serphin Maltese and Caesar Trunzo — in tight races. Two newly elected Democrats senators — Long Island Sen. Craig Johnson and North Country Sen. Darrel Aubertine — who won their seats in special elections had significant leads.
Republican Sen. Joseph Robach, who represents most of Rochester and its major suburbs of Greece and Brighton, held an 11-point lead over Democratic challenger Richard Dollinger, who held the seat before Robach captured it in 2002.
The tightest race in Upstate, the poll showed, was the battle between Democrat Joe Mesi and Republican Michael Ranzenhofer. They are vying for an open seat that stretches across Erie and Genesee counties and being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Mary Lou Rath.
In Westchester County, Republicans have fielded visible challenges to State Senators Andrea Stewart Cousins and Suzi Oppenheimer -- and have spent at least $300,000 on Liz Feld's race against Oppenheimer to what appears to no avail in the liberal suburbs. Cousin's challenger John Murtaugh is forecasted to do worse.
The Senate Republican Campaign Committee spent more than $1.6 million in September, according to filings. $314,465 went to Maltese, followed by $183,454 for candidate John Murtagh.
Lot of money. Most of the dollars just leave the GOP doggy paddling.
One reversal of fortune for Democrats has so far come with Sen. Bill Stachowski, who seemed like a sure thing, but recent polls show him trailing Republican Dennis Delano by double digits.
The New York Daily News reported that Dems aren't going down gently into that good night.
The New York Times reported this week that Western New York and Tom Golisano are back, politically speaking.
“Upstate New York is a very smart place to play,” said Erick C. Mullen, a Democratic consultant and veteran of races in the area. “You can get so much more purchase with your money. It is a ripe place for an upbeat campaign to go.”
It used to be that political consultants could predict the outcome of a national election from Erie County. The NY Times pjointed out that it is the economy the has once again turned it into New York's tipping point.
Western New York’s political volatility is fueled by a mix of factors, some of them long in the making and others unexpected. Financial uncertainty is perhaps the biggest factor in the region, which is already one of the most economically troubled parts of the state and stands to be hurt disproportionately by New York’s fiscal crisis, posing difficulties for incumbents of both parties.
“The kindling is an electorate in western New York that is profoundly pessimistic,” said Bruce N. Gyory, a political consultant and former lobbyist who has advised Republicans and Democrats. “The match is an economy that, while in recession, seems to carry the political impact of a depression.”
Meanwhile, that kindling hasn't sparked a fire in New York City's northern suburbs -- where a political malaise prevails.
News Copy attended the last debate between "Mrs. Oppenheimer" and "Mayor Feld" (that's how the candidates wanted the League of Women Voters to address them).
Oppenheimer blamed the Republicans. Feld, at times, tried to channel being a Democrat or "bi-partisan" in response to changing Albany. Though Feld's fiscal conservative message made sense (and Oppenheimer's finger pointing didn't), the reality is that Westchester probably won't "get it" until that county government is brought to its political knees by a humbling municipal default.
The Elmira Star-Gazettte reported this week that New York State faces a $1.2-2.5 billion shortfall this year.
Next year? Sen. Oppenheimer quoted that there could be a $7 billion shortfall.
Paterson will threaten cuts to education and healthcare, to force a reaction from the special interest lobbies.
“The governor, like the Legislature, understands that education is the way we really have the best chance of reigniting the economy,” said Richard Iannuzzi, president of the New York State United Teachers. “If you decimate education, you drive the economy in the wrong direction.”
It's a political minefield that neither side will cross, at least before Election Day.
Listening to the debates of State lawmakers, it's clear that Democrats will go after the prisons and tax credits to business (along with economic development grants). Republicans will want across-the-board five percent cuts -- but both sides are dancing with the teachers union and fearful of a revolt by PTA moms and dads.
There's a scandal too, an income tax scandal and a scandal too close to Governor Paterson with a trusted aide -- now finally resigning -- who was identified as "the whole operation" for New York's executive branch.
The New York Post's Fred Dicker reported the additional ramifications of Charles O'Byrne's fiscal and personal damage to himself ... and others.
Other Paterson administration insiders described the governor as "agonizing" over the decision to force out O'Byrne, who was not only his top aide but also a good friend.
Making matters even harder was the lack of an heir apparent.
An official close to Paterson said he understood the need to have O'Byrne resign, but said finding a replacement could be difficult.
"The scary thing about this is that O'Byrne has been the whole operation for Paterson," the official said.
The State Legislature re-convenes for an emergency session November 18th.
After Election Day, of course.
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