As for the fingerpointing by both sides, the U.S. Attorney's office is already investigating the Working Families Party -- and, apparently the U.S. Attorney's office would not normally want the Attorney General to conduct a concurrent inquiry.
An investigation of Manatt, Phelps and Phillips over being cc'ed documents on bidding process that would be re-started -- with a client who would withdraw from the process and never submit a bid?
At first glance, this is much ado about nothing -- on both sides -- but at least New Yorkers for Growth has a sense of humor.
The longer New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo waited to recuse himself from an investigation of Governor David Paterson, the more rapid he dropped in the polls, according to a Marist College poll.
Inside baseball? It's not fair to say Cuomo played it safe by saying Kaye was appointed and then elevated by his father when he was governor. He appointed a woman to oversee the investigation -- and an Albany insider who knows where all the bodies are buried. It makes sense.
"Why do voters think the way they do about Paterson’s future? Of those voters who think the governor should stay in office, 40% say the public doesn’t have all the facts to prove he’s guilty. 20% think his resignation would do more harm than good for the state, 14% report he’s doing a good job under the circumstances, and 13% think Paterson has a responsibility to fulfill his commitment. An additional 13% believe he should stay in office because there isn’t that much time left to his term."
Cuomo took a hit, 13 percent.
"Has New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s job approval rating suffered from his role in the Paterson investigation? The short answer is, “Yes.” Cuomo’s approval rating has dropped 13 percentage points since Marist last asked this question prior to Governor Paterson ending his candidacy for election. 54% of voters currently say Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office. 31% now believe he is performing fairly well, and 8% think he is missing the mark. 7% are unsure."
Sheldon Silver runs New York State. He's the last man standing,
If he can suggest who else controls New York's fiscal and legislative agenda, the Assembly Speaker is more than welcome to submit a name or two.
Andrew Cuomo's first challenge, if he runs for governor, will be to counter Silver's stranglehold on state government.
Governor Andrew Cuomo cannot allow himself to be pushed around by the Manhattan liberal who rules New York State. This will be the breakout moment for Cuomo, if the next governor is Cuomo.
"How does the speaker maintain his power? Is it good for New York to have one person have this much power? What benefit does the speaker derive from his position of power? Former Sen. Joe Bruno and Govs. Paterson and Spitzer seemed fine until their worlds blew up."
It's Tammany Hall like politics.
It's an autocratic system, with rules that trap people. It's a legislative chess game. It's time to break many of those rules and stop playing chess in Albany.
No matter what happens to Paterson, the Assembly Speaker is running New York.
Only if we let him.
“He is one of the wiliest, smartest people in politics,” says one Democratic strategist who’s known Silver for more than 30 years. “He knows the levers of power.”
“He has no ideology,” adds a senior Albany pol who served with Silver in the Assembly. “I don’t think he really feels strongly about anything. He loves the fight — he loved fighting with [Gov. George] Pataki. It’s about power, and I think he has total power. I can’t imagine anyone challenging him.”
They noted how Ed Koch is forming a good government coalition to challenge incumbents.
Koch knows all too well what these fights entail. His reform Democrats took down a modern incarnation of Tammany in Manhattan during the mid-1960s.
When do they reform Democrats finally sit down with the Republicans and Conservatives to make this a political war with some teeth?
Republicans won't do it alone. Conservatives need to be heeded. Conservatives were putting forge tea parties before there were tea parties, 50 years ago. When Republicans and Democrats take these reformers seriously, maybe New York's problems will finally be addressed.
In the meantime, Mr. Silver is playing a neat and powerful game of divide and conquer between regions. New York City is pitted against suburban Westchester and Long Island. Westchester and Long Island battle among themselves. Upstate is leveraged by bosses in both parties.
At the end of the day, Silver's urban coalition rules. Blame the bosses on Long Island and perhaps at times in Westchester for failing to drop the political expediency many years ago. Blame Joe Bruno and an upstate coalition that toyed with reforms, only to be devoured by their own excess before, during and after George Pataki.
And since it is happening to Democrats in the Executive Chamber, the last question is for Andrew Cuomo.
How are you going to change things, Governor Cuomo?
USA Today reported on a Siena Poll that found a majority of New Yorkers so ashamed by the latest scandals at the state Capitol that they are embarrassed to call themselves New Yorkers.
The poll found that seventy percent of voters agreed that New York has never been more dysfunctional, and by a 54% to 41% margin, voters also say that what's going on in Albany makes them "embarrassed" to call themselves New Yorkers.
But 71% would rather see David Paterson remain as governor than see him impeached by the State legislature.
This might be a gestalt moment for the Empire State. Strategically and psychologically, perhaps campaigns and candidates should prepare themselves for an election cycle where voters don't want the usual scandal-ridden dirty laundry hanging around on the front page.
Also, with national statistics showing a drastic increase in applications for unemployment, what may also be unfolding here is a natural need for people to see some stability.
The issue here is chaos, too much of it.
In our line of work, political spinmasters usually thrive on this nonsense -- but methinks we're headed for a period of caution. This doesn't put down the tea parties or THAT restless. It's just a sense that politicians won't be tolerated if they resort to mud-slinging.
The problem is that New York State is about to get worse; ethically with its elected officials (and appointed officials) along with painful fiscal shortfalls that could have school districts up in arms any day now.
The latter is the measurable crisis. It's being felt already in every school district across New York. It is about to get much worse.
Tipping point? Breaking point? More like an earthquake with bigger aftershocks.
Paterson staying as governor?
The State Legislature is already negotiating with Richard Ravitch -- or at least they're begging for him. Why not? He already gave us the MTA Payroll Tax.
The Siena Poll released today also found that a majority of New York believe Andrew Cuomo will conduct a fair and impartial investigation of the Governor and his staff, although two-thirds of voters would prefer to see the investigation conducted by an independent, outside prosecutor.
Why not start by mentioning New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, particularly since he now has near-dictatorial control of the budget process?
How about discussing Lieutenant Governor Richard Ravitch, who Democrats will summon to replace a "lame duck" governor -- and whose last "great" initiative was crafting the notorious Metro-North payroll tax?
"With Paterson gone, state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is almost certain to be elected governor, and the Democrats retain an even chance of keeping control of the state Senate, just before the redistricting process begins. And eight potentially vulnerable Democratic congressmen — Michael Arcuri , Timothy Bishop, John Hall , Dan Maffei , Eric Massa , Michael E. McMahon , Scott Murphy and Bill Owens — can fight through a tough cycle without the additional distraction of having to account for Paterson’s erratic behavior."
First, why make David Paterson the fall guy for over 40 years of liberal Democrats wasting tax dollars (and more than a few Rockefeller Republicans joining in)?
Second, Democrats have continued to lose elections in New York since last November and through last month's special elections.
Third, does Andrew Cuomo winning so easily ensure a statewide landslide for everyone else or a more sleepy turnout by Democrats?
Fourth, Democrats hold a narrow one vote lead in the State Senate -- with much bickering within their own caucus -- and a persuasive case could be made that Republicans could regain control by margin of 4-6 Republican lawmakers.
Finally, since when are eight vulnerable incumbent Democrats looking to head back to D.C. suddenly safer because David Paterson cried "uncle" after the "gray lady" (The New York Times( made an in-kind contribution to Andrew Cuomo's gubernatorial campaign with an overtly (and annoyingly) telegraphed "hit" piece?
Who's next?
Also, can we stop blaming the Executive Chamber for dysfunctional problems within our State legislature?
"... It’s fair to say that both Spitzer and Paterson have done incalculable harm to the cause of political reform in the state. And Cuomo, while possessing many admirable qualities, is no reformer."
Cuomo's push for locally approved consolidation, by referendum, was viewed with such enthusiasm by reformers that it earned him an acknowledgment by the New York State Conservative Party and an invite to that party's annual political action conference.
Re-reading the article a few times, not one mention of Sheldon Silver came up (or Joe Bruno). How about the many years of incalculable harm by "three men in a room" whose machinations always started in the same place?
Is it so hard for journalists covering New York State to grasp how government works in our legislature -- or is it just easier to make the executive the fall guy?
Is it that the New York State Assembly and State Senate has been taken for granted as an elected body of lawmakers?
Maybe it is too much like Congress.
Maybe they all have to be shown the door on Election Day.
While the article discusses black empowerment, how about empowering reformers running for the Assembly to replace nearly two generations of political lemmings encompassing every race, creed and color?
How about discussing people empowerment, participatory government, initiative and referenda, a more open (and realistic) bill creation process and a complete overhaul of the rules in New York's legislature?
Finally, how about first finding someone who can count?
“There’s more work to do, and up until the last few days I was looking forward to participating in a full four-year term,” he said. “But I am being realistic about politics. It hasn’t been the latest distraction, it has been an accumulation of obstacles that have obfuscated me from bringing my message to the public. Therefore, there are times in politics when you have to know not to strive for service, but to step back. And that moment has come for me.”
“In the last few days, it has become increasingly clear to me that I cannot run for office and try to manage the state’s business at the same time,” he continued. “In addition, I am looking forward to a full investigation of actions taken by myself and my administration. But I give you this personal oath: I have never abused my office, not now, not ever. And I believe that when the facts are revealed the truth will prevail.”
Albany is stubburn, even to one of their insiders. Racism had nothing to do with it. Andrew Cuomo will face as much resistance from his own party as Paterson.
The problem is Sheldon Silver.
The problem has been a cross-section of Democrats whose seats have belonged to the same insiders since the mid-1970s when Watergate gave liberals in New York a beachhead in the Assembly.
"As he prepared for the Friday announcement, some newspaper editorial writers were demanding more than an end to his candidacy: they called for his resignation. That had only added to the increasing sense that it would be nearly impossible for him to run the state and the campaign with the abuse case in the background."
Then who runs New York?
Between now and January of of 2011, with New York bound legally by then to a budget that won't change dramatically until April 1, 2012, a fiscal crisis will consume the Empire State.
Who will lead New York?
A lame duck governor who could yet resign, a replacement who was not elected (whose standing will likely be challenged again in court), a State Senate without a clear leader (where everyone's standing will likely be challenged again in court), a corrupt Assembly Speaker who answers to no one (whose standing is never challenged because he controls the courts), a governor-in-waiting who inherits a crisis that will be much worse by the time he is sworn 11 months from now?
One has to forecast this state government's fiscal crisis two years into the future to entirely grasp what just happened an hour ago.
Democrats are on the spot over how domestic violence is handled by Albany (and Republicans shouldn't be painting themselves as political virgins either).
How about the the operation of the State Police, State Troopers and Homeland Security -- if one follows this back to Eliot Spitzer's administration ... and before?
Meanwhile, Paterson is expected to drop out of the race for governor but yesterday he was defensive.
As this video from The New York Observer shows, Paterson is already deferring to Cuomo.
How can Cuomo conduct this investigation from the inside looking out?
The Albany Times Union noted that this is not the first time the State Police has been down this conflicted road.
... Spitzer put O'Donnell in charge of the force, and gave her a rank higher than State Police superintendent. The idea, Spitzer said, was to "restore public confidence in one of our most important government functions."
O'Donnell resigned yesterday. Everyone knows that won't be enough.
And then there's Michael Boxley, whose own violence against women has seldom gotten a sympathetic response from most New York State lawmakers.
And Hiriam Monserrate.
And a history in New York's State Capitol of double lives that now may finally be coming to an end.
The upstate newspaper puts forth a comprehensive history of how this one particular staffer's near-serial raping and drugging of women in Albany took years to finally be acknowledged as something close to a crime by the Assembly Speaker.
"Just as Paterson earlier this month defended Johnson in public remarks about his aide's alleged transgressions, Silver initially stood up for Boxley. A second charge of sexual assault by a different woman two years later finally led Silver to distance himself from his top aide, who was suspended without pay five days after he was charged with rape. Boxley soon resigned."
It also ended up costing the taxpayers $250,000 of a $500,000 civil settlement to one of the victims (long forgotten and rarely mentioned is the personal culpability for half that settlement by leadership still serving in the State legislature).
Downstate news outlets have rarely touched the Boxley matter or many other matters that beyond the northern reaches of Bear Mountain get slight coverage.
The Albany Times Union was given a comment by one of Silver allies, sounding like business as usual:
Assembly Majority Leader Ron Canestrari, D-Cohoes, said he didn't see a parallel. "That's years ago, all in the past," he said. "I think this is a level of involvement and entanglement that is very damaging to the governor."
That's the systemic problem. Lawmakers stubbornly resigned to a culture that condemns acknowledging any measurable corruption.
Do they still shun elected officials who speak "out of school" about secrets in Albany's closets, Mr. Canestrari?
Part of the problem in New York State is that upstate New York and lower New York generally don't see each other in the news. The news media has New York split into three realms; New York City, its sleepy suburbs and upstate ... as if this is not one state.
So details like date rape and the drugging of Assembly staffers get missed by journalists -- or is it that their publishers and producers have some unwritten understanding NOT to print it all?
Republicans don't get a clean getaway either. Former State GOP chairman Bill Powers hired Michael Boxley! Worse, Pataki's former Republican leader had no problem hiring the rapist AFTER the civil suit clarified his misdeeds.
The attorneys for politicians and press alike have never stopped scurrying around over the above matters. Afraid of being sued?
The list of what gets hidden is too long to list.
If Cuomo wants to be a New York State Governor with any credibility to lead with integrity, both the State conflicts of interest with law enforcement and Albany's penchant for hiding criminality must be addressed.
Otherwise, Mario's son will be known as a rubber stamp for past sins. He won't be trusted as a reformer.
It's not how Andrew Cuomo wants to enter the Executive Chamber.
Andrew Cuomo may know have it all to himself (don't tell that to Suffolk's Steve Levy or Rick Lazio) but he will be handed a lame duck budget in 2011.
It was going to be this bad, whether Paterson ran or not, but now the Executive Chamber is falling into a limbo New York has never seen before.
Also, properly investigating this controversy either falls in the Attorney General's lap -- or he has to hand it to another prosecutor.
This is not going to be as simple coup de grace as the news media is reporting.
What does Paterson's defensive status do to budget negotiations?
How wide an investigation could reach into governance problems with law enforcement entities close to the Executive Chamber that go back to the Pataki administration (and a few close to the Attorney General's office going back to Spitzer's tenure).?
Who else has a domestic violence scandal in their closet?
Do the Republicans sit back and watch or find themselves left being held as responsible for New York's fiscal plight?
Finally, does Sheldon Silver continue to expand his power or will the working press finally place their microscope on him?
It seems to be crumbling among the black leadership too.
H. Carl McCall, who met with Paterson Thursday, outlined some dim options:
“It seems to me that there are three issues that he has to deal with,” Mr. McCall said in an interview before the meeting. “One, he’s got to govern. Two, he will have to manage a campaign. And three, he will have to deal with these allegations. It’s clear to me he can’t do all of these things. The question for all of us is, which of these things will he abandon?”
"... The antagonism and politically charged relationship that exists between the two rivals greatly undermines the Attorney General’s ability to objectively and credibly investigate this matter," Cox said in a prepared statement."
Cuomo wouldn't want the legacy of indicting the state's first black governor or coming across as soft on corruption, so Democrats find themselves surrounded by multiple political meltdowns.
Out of Westchester, Nita Lowey said the following about Paterson:
"These very serious allegations must be fully and swiftly investigated, and if they are true, the Governor should no longer be in office. Aside from the allegations, the political reality is the Governor cannot be an effective candidate or official for New York.”
"Paterson's slide has been steep and persistent ever since he botched the selection of a successor to fill the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. (The state's budget mess hasn't helped either.) And today's revelations make the situation worse. Call the pall bearers."
"He was allegedly brought in to negotiate the state budget," said the Ravitch pal. "He is seriously worried about cash flow issues and concerned about whether payments to the schools can be made in March. He said, 'I am here, but I don't have access.'"
Ravitch can govern. Ironically, Paterson's departure would leave New York with someone who actually has a track record over four decades grappling with fiscal emergencies.
But Ravitch won't be allowed to govern, particularly as a lame duck, and David Paterson without an election to at least keep all sides on their toes would have little leverage over his own party.
Does the dialogue start now about a New York State budget about to do a California, California cubed (to the third power)?
The tea leaves for New York's local governments and school districts, along with its larger cities facing their own shortfalls, has the accumulative look of shutdown without significant spending cuts everywhere.
Paterson is to vulnerable to preside over budget negotiations but who in New York can fill that void?
Ravitch can.
For better or worse, there could be other casualties in the State Senate that leave Democrats without control of that legislative body. With Aqueduct's bidding being scrutinized by higher powers, it is not far-fetched speculation that Malcolm Smith and any number of his contemporaries could be found departing too.
Who is left being blamed for a fiscal default then, the Republicans?
Hopefully, the State Senate Minority under Dean Skelos will be smart enough this time to leave the Democrats to their own devices.
Ah, here’s the stuff we’ve been waiting for lo these many weeks. The Times actually rolled out a separate story a week ago introducing the key player here: David Johnson, who started working for Paterson as an intern, eventually became his driver, and now serves as one of his most senior aides despite having “also on three occasions been involved in altercations with women.”
One minor detail they saved for tonight: If you believe Johnson’s latest victim, the State Police — and the governor himself — may have tried to cover things up.
This story is galloping.
The Huffington Post joined a growing number of national news outlets this morning just starting to sift through the political rubble in Albany.
"Whether it was intentional or not, we have to admire the way the three Times Paterson scoops build on each other to create the perfect Portrait of the Governor as a Real Asshole: In the first installment, we learn of Paterson's girlfriend-beating trouble magnet aide, David W. Johnson. Maybe Paterson doesn't have the best character judgment, we think with a shrug. The second article reveals that Paterson pays for his vacations with campaign cash and gives his friend's ex-girlfriend a job. OK, so he has a little thing with using the power of his office to make things happen for himself and his buddies... uh oh. Then: Boom."
Vindication for The Times.
Paterson's statement around midnight called for transparency -- but where was it last week?
"Serious questions have been raised about contact the state police may have had with a private citizen who filed a complaint against a member of my staff," Paterson said in a statement released to The Associated Press on Wednesday night. "Any allegation of improper influence must be investigated thoroughly and completely."
"In our view, David Johnson should be commended, not demonized, ridiculed and scorned. He seemingly learned from his mistakes and rose from a troubled youth to a position of trust and importance in state government. He has nothing to be ashamed of based on what we read in the Times article and certainly neither does David Paterson for giving this man a chance."
The New York Times reported Wednesday night that Paterson called the alleged victim of a “brutal” attack before she missed a key court appearance. The woman, who is not named, also reportedly complained that the State Police had been “calling me and harassing me to drop the charges.”
The alleged assault happened shortly before 8 p.m. on Halloween in the apartment she had shared with Mr. Johnson and her 13-year-old son for about four years, according to police records.
She told the police that Mr. Johnson, who is 6-foot-7, had choked her, stripped her of much of her clothing, smashed her against a mirrored dresser and taken two telephones from her to prevent her from calling for help, according to police records.
The anatomy of this scandal exposed by the news media has a far more risky endgame.
A source told The Post that Paterson was "shocked" cops had been in touch with the woman; he didn’t find out until yesterday afternoon.
Paterson spoke to the woman as well, an official told The Post.
"She called on Super Bowl Sunday and told the governor that she had heard that she was being accused of spreading stories about him, about women at the [governor’s] mansion, and that she wanted to let the governor know that that was totally false," the official said.
Cuomo’s probe is reminiscent of the Troopergate scandal of 2007, which probed allegations that then-Gov. Eliot Spitzer had used State Police to intimidate then-Republican Senate leader Joe Bruno.
No need to wait for the story. This is New York. We can see this one coming a week away.
Ever since the Times teased its scandal about David Paterson, the state knew Andrew Cuomo was running.
Between now and probably Tuesday or Wednesday, expect some major front page story to upstage Governor David Paterson.
Andrew Cuomo should either get some attention grabbing news exclusive that leaves everyone forgeting that Paterson announced on Saturday that he is running for governor.
Or one of the tabloids will have a full page photo of Paterson dancing with a ... Republican?
The truth is that David Paterson has upstaged himself by failing to rein in Albany.
The other truth in New York is that Andrew Cuomo is the political cult of personality that will upstage everyone else. The risks for Cuomo is that this ego-centric media push -- supposedly coming naturally -- will coil resentment against him in the minority community.
It's only a matter of time before this turf war between minorities and white political leaders in both major parties causes partisan fractures throughout New York. How Paterson's candidacy was covered, though validly an indictment against State capitol politics as usual, might also be misinterpreted over time as a slight against black candidates. When it uncoils, the backlash is going to be ugly.
"When it comes to money, he's got less than a fourth of the funds his inevitable Democratic opponent, Andrew Cuomo, has collected from the party's fat cat supporters. When it comes to popular support, well , his numbers are lower Eliot Spitzer's were after the hooker scandal broke."
"He won the support of many New Yorkers by advocating a strong, fiscally conservative response to the recession, but he repeatedly caved to pressure from lawmakers and special interests. Spending, borrowing and taxes have pushed relentessly skyward."
Rick Lazio is continuing to be nice to Paterson, which is probably not a bad strategy considering that they have a common enemy (and that Paterson is so far behind in the polls that there is no reason to be undiplomatic).
Lazio told the Daily News that the Times Is 'In The Tank' For Cuomo. Liz Benjamin theorized that Lazio wants to see Paterson beat Cuomo, for obvious reasons.
"Numerous public opinion polls have shown the well-funded and popular Cuomo easily defeating Lazio, who is less well-known and vastly out-paced by the AG in fundraising. Those same polls show Lazio would have a far easier time against Paterson, who is embattled and similarly weak in the fundraising department. Also, it's a safe bet a Lazio v. Paterson contest would be a fairly tame affair, while Cuomo v. anyone is all but certain to be anything but."
Paterson won't beat Cuomo but the minority vote will be in play, perhaps so alienated after a Cuomo-Paterson primary and a Gillibrand-Ford primary for U.S. Senate that Democrats might lose a portion of that base.
And Lazio is playing to that base, as will Harold Ford against Gillibrand, and it wouldn't be impractical for Republicans to run a number of black and Hispanic candidates in key urban districts.
Rasmussen noted that Cuomo had a 28-point lead in mid-November. In late September, Cuomo led Lazio 65% to 26%. It has been worse.
"While Lazio is faring better against both his Democratic opponents, it is unclear if he is benefiting from the backlash against the national health care plan that seems to be helping many other GOP candidates in other parts of the country."
The schools, Rick.
In New York, talk about the schools.and school funding -- and property taxes, and the teachers union, and the mandates, and the State legislature ...
Former New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer was on "Good Day, New York" this morning and wasn't shy about discussing his fellow Democrats running statewide.
Spitzer defended Paterson, particularly on his experience in the State legislature and the difficulties presently running any state.
Spitzer dared Andrew Cuomo to speak up on the issues and said Gillibrand needed to stand up for what she believed in.
"If he’s going to run for governor, which is, it’s his right to do, of course, then he should answer the hard questions. How would his budget differ? How would he get the bills through the Legislature relating to ethics relating to the reform we need in New York State? In other words, answer the hard questions. Where would his program differ from the existing governor’s?"
On Gillibrand, the former governor noted that the appointed U.S. Senator had changed her positions on some fundamental issues.
"You believe something or you don't and what we need in politics right now are people who know what they believe and stand up and are forceful on that ...," explained Spitzer. "I don't like politicians who vaccilate, who change positions, whose views on fundamental issues are so maleable that they are told, 'if you want this job, change your position.'"
Spitzer wouldn't be specific on what issues, though it's no mystery that there have been plenty Gillibrand has shifted on since she was appointed. He wouldn't specify who might be telling Gillibrand what to do, though that was an obvious nameless punch at former U.S. Senator Al D'Amato.
Andrew Cuomo running for New York State Governor would seem like a natural step. But there won't be any natural political steps in 2010, for anyone in either major party.
Because Cuomo is not an announced candidate, many Democrats say, he does not have to stake out positions on such controversial and divisive topics. He is the attorney general and can act like that.
"I think certainly Andrew Cuomo is a very smart strategist and he understands the minute you announce your candidacy that every issue that is the governor's issue is his issue," said Assemblyman Mark J.F. Schroeder, a Buffalo Democrat who last year publicly said he was backing a Cuomo candidacy..
How will Republicans beat him?
First he has to beat Governor David Paterson in a primary, though Paterson may have already beaten himself. Then Cuomo has to beat Albany itself -- or at least find a way to keep its fiscal troubles off his back an entire campaign.
While the Republicans may or may not beat themselves, again, they may also rise to the challenge.
Cuomo seems unbeatable. Whether you are Rick Lazio or Chris Collins or Steve Levy or anyone else, this won't be Pataki versus Cuomo (1994). This won't be Cuomo versus Lehrman either (1982) -- or Cuomo vs. Koch (1982).
If he doesn't run, the state's ensuing fiscal collapse will be someone else's problem. If he does run, win and succeed in solving New York's economic woes, Cuomo could then aim for a White House run by 2016. But he might be as potent a presidential aspirant staying away from the partisan sinkholes and instead play hero as crime buster as Attorney General.
Many have noted that he didn't stand in the way of Eliot Spitzer's deconstruction but fixing Albany would require more than playing moralist over some hank panky. The scourge of potential legal and financial scandals would turn Mr. Cuomo into a contemporary Robespierre (not too different from how Spitzer and Giuliani were both regarded as prosecutors).
He will be as hated as he will be beloved.
The next governor has no choice. This gubernatorial fork in the road, Democrat or Republican, must clean up Albany or face a legacy worse than Chicago. Cuomo has to beat more than a Republican by November, more than Paterson in a primary, more than the undeserved shadows of his father still lurking around every media corner to bite at his reputation.
Cuomo has to defeat a man named Sheldon Silver, particularly, or the Republicans will capitalize ... and deservedly. There's a bit more to this political intrigue than one chess game. Silver has a few decisions to make of his own, as will almost every major Democratic boss in New York State.
Black Democrats and establishment players alike will cringe. What will be left of the Democratic Party in New York after ten months of vicious spin? Harold Ford and Kirsten Gillibrand are in the same rowboat, as is Tom DiNapoli -- who actually has to deliver the bad news that New York is broke -- and Attorney General hopeful Jeff Klein (who becomes the new inquisitor and executioner).
Andrew Cuomo can be like any Democrat or demonstrate independence. The deeper question is how many supposedly "new" Democrats genuinely grasp this choice. The other question is how lonely it gets once Cuomo walks the road less travelled ...
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