Joe DioGuardi is still way out in front of Bruce Blakeman by a 3-1 margin and David Malpass by a 7-1 margin in a Republican U.S. Senate primary, according to this morning's Siena Poll on statewide races.
This is vindication for DioGuardi, who was unfairly snubbed by a contrarian margin at the State GOP Convention -- and again at the State Independence Party Convention (Kirsten Gillibrand won that endorsement).
The Westchester Republican has been campaigning intensely throughout New York State.
DioGuardi has reached out to parts of upstate New York and conservative voting blocks who rarely get to see a true red meat pro-life conservative Republican running statewide -- and they like it.
Pictured with Joe is Jim Kelly, a Conservative leader who helped the former Congressman barnstorm the state.
Head to head, DioGuardi trails Gillibrand by 18 points.
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Notable details of the poll:
Andrew Cuomo's favorables are down eight points -- and the Democratic nominee has lost six points against Rick Lazio.
But Cuomo still leads Lazio by over a 2-1 margin. The Long Island Republican is still stuck at 24 percent.
No bump off the State GOP Convention?
In a Republican primary, Lazio leads Paladino 45-18.
DioGuardi had his own bounce, grabbing eight more points against Gillibrand -- though the Democrat still leads that race 47-29. Gillibrand leads Blakeman, 47-29, and Malpass, 49-24, with all three Republicans gaining ground on her.
"There’s trouble for incumbent comptroller Tom DiNapoli. After nearly four years in office, just 23 percent of voters are prepared to re-elect him compared to “someone else.” This statistic, the ‘re-elect number’ is often a good barometer of incumbent strength, with 40 percent being a magical threshold at this stage of things. When matched against Harry Wilson, the hedge fund manager who is DiNapoli’s Republican opponent, DiNapoli wins 42-23. But 36 percent of voters remain undecided, a dangerous swing block."
Cuomo's losing ground with independents but has the support of 80 percent of Democrats against either Lazio or Paladino
“As Andrew Cuomo continues to dominate the political scene in New York - and his potential opponents - his still commanding lead has fallen to its lowest level ever, while his favorability rating has fallen below 60 % for the first time in a year and a half,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Cuomo’s 59 to 26 % favorability rating is still the strongest of any New York pol, however, there’s been a negative 13-point swing from the 67 to 21 % favorability rating voters gave him three weeks ago.
Added Greenberg: “Cuomo maintains big leads over both Republicans. Although his lead among independent voters fell by about 20 points against both, neither Lazio nor Paladino wins a majority of Republicans against Cuomo, who has the support of at least 80 % of Democrats against either Republican.”
I somehow find it hard to believe that even Andrew Cuomo will have the support of at least 80 percent of Democrats by Election Day.
“I wouldn’t find myself in the position that David Paterson has found himself in because I wouldn’t have signed last year’s budget. It increased spending by three times the rate of inflation ... "
I am going to be difficult and do some surgery on Rick Lazio's statement, that continued like the run-on sentence from hell.
"... But here he, we’re trying to avoid a shut down of government, trying to avoid default on payments. I think these cuts are, I’d have some reservations, but some of them for the most part on balance they need to be done. They’re appropriate and I think Andrew Cuomo needs to show some leadership. I mean, for the people of his own party need to show some support for David Paterson."
Lazio's problem is that he talks too much and distracts away from his initial sound bytes.
"... I think one of the problems right now we have is we’re just looking at the short term and closing gaps ..."
And then the Republican and Conservative nominee inexplicably steered away from discussing cuts in spending and tax relief.
He put forth a worthwhile "pro-growth agenda" but he didn't detail how New York can get there.
It's the same proble most Republicans running for statewide office will have this year in New York. It's the same problem Republicans have endured fiscally since the Reagan administration blinked in the early 1980's when they should have cut spending.
The late Jack Kemp would have known what to say. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has known what to say -- do so.
Cut to the chase, call firmly for cuts in spending, or perish.
Voters are craving pithy candidates with a hard edge, not any niceties or even civility in many instances.
Voters want candidates rude and rough and tumble enough to say what people don't want to hear.
This is why Carl Paladino is no longer a fluke.
This is also why the State Senate Republicans have an opportunity of a generation if they truly put the Democrats toes to the test.
"... It would be idiotic. A shutdown would disrupt millions of lives, cost millions of dollars and leave state officials scrambling to operate prisons, the State Police and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority — never mind services like motor vehicle offices.
Republicans seem to think that acting so recklessly while Democrats control the government is great politics. They’re wrong. Voters would blame anyone who participates in a shutdown. Doing so would disqualify themselves from re-election, regardless of their party."
Republicans should only be so reckless.
Love him or hate him, George Pataki was a gentleman among rogues. Pataki should have been unkind, impatient, difficult and fiscally stubborn on conservative principles. Maybe his legacy would have turned out differently. Instead, Democrats enjoyed a free ride and a kind hand on their wayward spending for too long.
The three men in the room; Governor Pataki, State Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Speaker.
How many years of jokes about this stultifying trio?
It's not funny anymore, if it ever was.
Now the Democrats are whining, as if these days of wine and roses were never going to end?
They ended in 1998/1999, except a lot of people either never got the memo or refused to read it.
Hence, I have no patience with Rick Lazio trying to rationalize kind words for a governor and his political party at a time when they are petulantly refusing to do their jobs!!!
Could it be that Rick Lazio and some of the State GOP are just too nice to defeat Andrew Cuomo?
Cuomo and Lazio traded punches over the Republican's claim that the Democrats have a lieutenant governor who is guilty of collecting a municipal salary and public pension at the same time.
-- Mr. Duffy, a 55-year-old former police officer, earns $127,694 as mayor and draws an annual, lifetime pension of $70,000. Mr. Duffy's pension is about 60% of the $114,259 salary he earned in 2005, his last full year on the force. That year, Mr. Duffy retired to run for mayor. He was elected to a second term in 2009.
The mayor's pension is perfectly legal—a benefit accrued in 28 years of service with the Rochester police force, a tenure that included seven years as its chief. Spokesmen for the Cuomo campaign and the Rochester mayor's office said Mr. Duffy took steps to hold down the size of his pension and has declined salary increases as mayor.
Shouldn't Republicans be going after the pension law and history or systemic corruption in BOTH parties with unions that has allowed for inflated pensions -- rather than focus on one police officer's post-retirement career?
As for the shot that followed by Cuomo's campaign, Lazio didn't expect to now get hit over the head concerning Morgan Stanley?
As national columnist Dick Morris has predicted, U.S. Senate candidate David Malpass will catch the same scrutiny by Democrats.
Republicans should have avoided flocking to Wall Street for their candidates this year but this is common sense.
With the gloves off this soon, it's likely Kirsten Gillibrand already has the press release and the surrogate ready for the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, and then they will go after Bruce Blakeman for his past.
Republicans are playing a game where they act as if the enemy won't shoot back. They aren't going to beat Andrew Cuomo taking weak shots at his running mate. It was good for a headline and now it is good for a battle of political spin where Democrats are going to take on every Republican vulnerablity with Wall Street.
At least both sides have Al D'Amato to worry about.
It's good to remind Republicans why the Democrats could lose.
Now when will the State GOP start discussing how Republicans can win?
I'm not comfortable with the politics of subtraction.
Where is Reagan?
Where is Jack Kemp?
Why is the State Republican Party still at war with the Conservative Party?
Andrew Cuomo is winning this election as a reformer. Republicans have allowed a liberal Democrat who cozied up to the unions in 2006 (to first get elected) to happily hijack fiscal Conservative reforms.
Whether he is pretending or not, the Republicans in New York are being upstaged by a man emphasizing the positive.
"Compared to Cuomo, the supposed liberal, Christie is Santa Claus. Cuomo is proposing a 2 percent cap on spending and salaries — a half-point stingier than Christie. When Democratic legislators insist Christie’s plan is too severe, Christie can hand them a copy of “The New NY Agenda” by Andrew Cuomo, Democrat."
So at the start of the New York State Republican Convention, after being physically threatened by its First Vice Chair and learning that the State Chairman finds my friend Joe DioGuardi "not acceptable" to Republicans, do you expect me to be upbeat about this convention?
Once the contention starts, the political bloodying will probably be a relief to some and a horror to others.
Republicans have as many bureaucratic bodies buried in Albany as the Democrats, so few opponents of Cuomo have the resources to tear him down the right way.
“He grew up as a political operative for his father,” Lazio said, saying Andrew learned at the “lap” of his father, former Gov. Mario Cuomo. “He’s learned the laws of manipulation, he’s learned the laws of deal-making. What he has not learned is about princple. What he has not learned is about what people want and deserve from their government.”
But it was just an attack, a good one (more on Cuomo's sub-prime debacle later), but Lazio needs to do surgery on the numbers in a productive way. New Yorkers wants to see how it all adds up.
I doubt Andrew Cuomo has the measurable solutions either.
Deconstructing what the Democrats have done to New York will not be easy, whether the surgeon is Cuomo or a Republican.
With the President of the United States failing to inspire his own party (they sent Joe Biden to pitch for John Hall today), Republicans still have an opportunity here.
“No, no, no, no, no. Nobody cruises. nobody cruises," he said. "Ed Koch was gonna cruise, and I was 38 points behind. Hugh Carey couldn't possibly win in 75 against Howard Samuels. Nobody cruises. The biggest factor in politics is probably the biggest factor in life, and that is coincidence - you're in the right place at the right time. You didn't plan to be there, you didn't set it all up. And that's what happens in politics."
If that's true, why has the New York Republican establishment looked at the best opportunity to win in 15 or 30 years and seemingly squandered it?
Too much subtracting their opponents, not enough addition of their own candidates.
Maybe if the State GOP would stop being prepped to use words like "not acceptable" to describe New York's most beloved fiscal conservative, he wouldn't be facing a massacre by the county chairs.
Maybe the people around Ed Cox have to just WAKE UP>
We can only hope as a state that Cuomo is truly ready to reform New York. So far, Republicans are yet to field a candidate capable of inspiring the Empire State.
While Cuomo will be handed opportunities to change New York (after he is perhaps elected), Republicans in New York seem unwilling or unable to pull behind a candidate like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
This is the real divide in New York. Old guard, liberal, elitist and corrupt establishment politics continues to plague both major parties -- except Democrats are better at this stuff. Republicans will never defeat the Democrats statewide with the same old strategies. The lesson of George Pataki is that the GOP is just as capable of devouring itself as its enemies.
Just ask Joe Bruno, whose self-destructive work continues in the person of Dean Skelos.
Republicans are yet to find their Chris Christie.
New Yorker are yet to believe that such directed conservatism has merit. Instead, the debt grows and taxes will rise unabated without massive fiscal changes.
Andrew Cuomo as governor might affect some changes but will he show the rapid approach of Governor Christie?
"The real privileged few in New Jersey are government unions that have soaked taxpayers to finance their oversized pensions, health-care benefits and salaries. Democrats hope that by raising taxes on the rich they can inoculate their union allies from Mr. Christie's effort to reduce the advantages that government workers have over private workers."
Andrew Cuomo is not the story.
Chris Christie is the story.
When the New York State Republican Committee starts to grasp the true demographic needed to wage a competitive statewide challenge to liberal Democrats like Andrew Cuomo, Republicans will start being Republicans again.
Until then, the Republican establishment is wasting everyone's time (and money).
Andrew Cuomo will be elected the next governor of New York State, by default.
Come to think of it, this is the same way Mario Cuomo stayed in office for three terms.
"... The takeout charge encapsulates everything loathsome about Espada. He lives in a tony suburb while representing the Bronx. He thinks the world owes him upscale sushi. He has no shame."
Tony suburb (this does not apply to most of suburbia).
What's disturbing is that Espada's sleepy suburban digs have been an open secret in Westchester and the Bronx for several momths -- but there is no sense of shame in the State Legislature.
Democrats are in a pickle. None from Westchester County have commented yet, particularly State Senator Suzi Oppenheimer who went several months not making an issue of the fact that Espada lives in her district.
Rockland County's Rally For America is hosting a forum with at least Steve Levy and Carl Paladino next week. Tentatively scheduled for Wednesday night in Nanuet, News Copy has learned that the tea party group will also extend an invitiation to Rick Lazio.
The event had initially been put together as equal time for Steve Levy -- since Carl Paladino had met with Rally for America last Friday -- but it is building as a gubernatorial "three amigos" that should draw the attention of a lot more than tea party members.
Apparently, Republican and Conservative leaders from the region will be invited.
Why not also invite Andrew Cuomo and really have some fun?
Liz Benjamin reported that Chairman Cox had no kind words for Chairman Long.
"...The leader of the Conservative Party rammed it through with the proxies in his hand and, as a result, and then went out campaigning with Mr. Lazio around the state. He obviously wanted to support Rick, and that’s what he did - to the consternation of a lot of other very good members of the Conservative Party who knew Steve Levy very well."
Highly placed Republican leaders close to the Nassau County GOP leadership learned that Rick Lazio missed a Republican fundraiser by County GOP chairman Joe Mondello that had drawn 1,700 people. The previous week Lazio showed up in Eastchester -- but failed to notify former Republican State Chairman Tony Colavita he was in town (everyone else was given less than 24 hours notice).
Maybe the State GOP doesn't want to win this race? Maybe this is just another cycle of a voter suppression by State Senate Republican strategists who want to win by subtraction? Republican fear and loathing strikes again?
Explanation: Voter suppression strategies rely on less-than-competitive top-of-the-ticket races to ensure that presumed strongholds by Democrats don't overcome Republicans.
Translation: A weak candidate against Cuomo ensures a lower voter turnout by Democrats.
I don't buy it. It's a scared strategy and doesn't work in the current tea party environment. People are coming out to vote in 2010 against tax-and-spend liberal policies.
Enter Carl Paladino, who spoke in Rockland County with Anthony Mele and Frank Sparaco at a Rally for America gathering.
In person, Paladino masters a friendly confrontational manner that should give "business as usual" Republicans nightmares. He's a couch potato with an attitude. New Yorkers will like him.
Yes ... he managed to go after Sheldon Silver, Andrew Cuomo and Ed Cox with a smile Friday night. It was almost standup comedy. Rockland County Republican Chairman Vincent Reda, who is also State Republican Vice Chairman was in attendance.
After Paladino finished his speech, Reda and Paladino had words over the "open process" that chose Steve Levy. There was a lot of fingerpointing by Paladino, who made certain his point wasn't missed. Reda was civil but found himself verbally challenged by one tea party member who wanted an explanation why the door is not open to other candidates. It was a difficult moment for Reda, who quickly left after his conversation with Paladino.
Paladino also had a warning/prediction about Ed Cox, who he said wouldn't be chairman for very long if Republicans continued to bypass his candidacy.
"Cox and even those on the fence express disappointment over Lazio’s failure to generate any real enthusiasm or cash, opening the doors for Levy and Buffalo developer Carl Paladino — an enrolled Republican who can find his own way onto the primary ballot. Levy, meanwhile, must persuade the majority of state committee members in order to run as a Republican."
Something's brewing among New York's tea party organizations. A "Draft Carl Paladino for Governor" effort is being talked about by activists around the state.
For those who missed Carl Paladino's first campaign video, a new variation has the Buffalo millionaire pledging to form a petition to get him on the ballot. Tea party members sound divided on backing a major party candidate (they're still jaded from Scott Brown's vote on the job's bill). However, there is a sense that they would back an independent without much difficulty -- possibly to form their own party.
John Faso's New Yorkers For Growth had been the first to use the "Prince Andrew" phrase, as has Rick Lazio, and it seems to be catching on.
News Copy is learning directly from Tea Party organizers throughout Rockland, Orange, Putnam, Dutchess and Westchester counties that Carl Paladino is circulating aggressively around New York State.
It's not implausible that Paladino -- through tea party enthusiasm alone -- can get on the ballot. Factor in $10 million on hand, variations of Doug Hoffman's ground team now helping him and a little help from Mr. Golisano (and perhaps the Independence Party) and the "mad as hell" businessman from Western New York appears poised to become the biggest political game changer in history of the Empire State..
"Sadly, the political elite in Albany don't have the courage to stand up to Washington on this vital Constitutional issue," Paladino said. "One of my first acts as Governor will be to work closely with the New York Attorney General to examine the issues and file or join appropriate litigation to stop Obamacare in its tracks."
"Andrew Cuomo's continued silence on this issue speaks volumes and is an act of policy cowardice. He will do anything and say nothing to escape having to defend New York when it's in his political interest to do so. Tonight, I call on him to stand shoulder to shoulder with the other Attorneys General of this country and immediately challenge the constitutionality of this legislation."
George Marlin is being mentioned by high-ranking Conservatives.
Carl Paladino has been encouraged by Tom Golisano.
Rick Lazio was supposed to be the candidate.
And now Steve Levy has seemingly been crowned by the State GOP chairman.
I personally experienced the misadventure of Pierre Rinfret's selection in 1990 ('the horror, the horror"), working the New York GOP convention in Rye that year.
"It was said that he was chosen after 19 other potential candidates refused to run, and that his name was chosen almost at random, from some politico's rolodex."
Rinfret's nomination was presented to the public in a side lobby of the hotel, almost as if the Republicans wanted to get it over before anyone objected (or Rinfret escaped the building).
With State Republican Chairman Ed Cox now declaring Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy his candidate, Republicans throughout New York must be feeling as if their own leadership has left them behind.
"I believe it's insulting to me what Steve is doing - whether it's his idea of Ed Cox's - by trying to intimidate us to back off," Long said. "I initially wanted to work closely with Ed Cox. Apparently, while we were supposed to be working closely, he was out busy recruiting Steve Levy to run for governor."
Rick Lazio needs to fire Arthur Finkelstein. If Lazio doesn't understand why, he shouldn't be running for governor.
I attended a wonderful gathering for Lazio in Eastchester, home of former State Republican Chairman Tony Colavita, but we all only had less than a day's notice from the Lazio campaign. That's the mark of a poorly run campaign -- and is it any wonder than the State GOP chairman is searching for another candidate?
Maybe if the State GOP was spending less time talking to a Democrat, a Republican could be found to run against Andrew Cuomo.
"There haven't been any statewide Republican stars since George Pataki. And if George Pataki is your idea of a star ... A I said, it's pathetic. Michael Bloomberg was/is a phony Republican. Rudy Giuliani was one for the first and better half of his political career. Mort Zuckerman, the Daily News publisher, was one for the three minutes that he contemplated running for the Senate."
Is it a repeat of 1990, where no one wants to run? Or does this have more to do with New York State Republican Committee opting not to talk to certain candidates over others?
There are plenty of quality candidates to choose from; mayors of large and mid-sized cities, county executives, state senators, town supervisors and even a few effective members of the assembly who have the gravitas to propel a statewide ticket.
I'm not sure if Ed Cox is overwhelmed (a lot of well-intended leaders have found themselves inundated with new candidates this year), misguided or just unwilling (or unable) to make such a powerful decision as a leader.
But Mike Long has made the same mistakes, particularly with Pataki, and a treacherous number of Republican and Conservative county leaders have ruined a laundry list of multi-county legislative races for 20 years now.
Who would have thought the looming GOP primary would make Democrats in general, and Andrew "I'm still not ready to announce yet" Cuomo in particular, seem like old hat and a bore?
"Levy had choreographed his departure from the Democratic party efficiently. A succession of Republican county chairmen, quickly fell in line. He was endorsed by John Jay Lavalle of Suffolk County. Queens GOP chair Phil Ragusa. who had endorsed Lazio in January, switched to Levy. And so did the Bronx Republican leader, Jay Savino."
Pressman is reporting that Levy is also supported by John Faso, who ran for governor four years ago.
But why would Faso facilitate a rush to a Democrat, undoubtedly undermining his own fundraising prowess for Republicans?
I somehow doubt Faso is behind Levy, though it sadly smatters of the internal party divisiveness that plagued Jim Tedisco's run -- where the failure of rejected 20th C.D. aspirants Betty Little and Faso to support the upstate Assemblyman affected the outcome.
Levy boasts of $4 million. Lazio had nearly $2 million on hand but Lazio now has $637,000.
On social issues, Levy says he is pro-choice but is against partial birth abortion and on the topic of gay rights that he is in favor of civil unions but marriage should be between a man and a woman. When asked about the healthcare bill, Levy said this is “not the right bill.”
Tea Party leaders met with Levy last week. Some walked out. Others expressed disappointment over his dodging of issues. His failure to articulate support of Second Amendment rights also will doom him with Conservatives statewide and most of upstate New York north of White Plains.
Levy appeared finished on arrival last week. Why is Cox risking the integrity of his leadership by floating a Republican in name only whose signature on the registration is still drying?
Enter Carl Paladino in Buffalo, who has $10 million dollars ready for a run and the backing of former Independence Party leader Tom Golisano.
Paladino could be announcing in less than two weeks.
Conservatives are meeting in Brooklyn today, debating a long list of statewide, state senate and assembly races.
One name that will be floated by Conservatives is George Marlin, a party member who doesn't need permission to cause trouble as a third party candidate. Another will be U.S. Senate candidate Joe DioGuardi, a Republican who D.C. powerbrokers would prefer to see pushed out of the Gillibrand race in deference to Dan Senor
The difference between Conservative Chair Mike Long and Cox is that Long has a lifetime of leading (and managing) maverick independent candidates whose credentials seized statewide posts.
Love them now or hate them, Al D'Amato with his run in 1980 and Pataki with his challenge to Mario Cuomo in 1994 paved a path to victory. Mike Long can also take credit for managing Jim Buckley's third party win as a Conservative in 1970 -- and nearly knocking Republicans in New York down to third party status with Herb London in 1990.
In other words, whatever the Chairman says this afternoon in Brooklyn should be heeded by all sides.
As for the fingerpointing by both sides, the U.S. Attorney's office is already investigating the Working Families Party -- and, apparently the U.S. Attorney's office would not normally want the Attorney General to conduct a concurrent inquiry.
An investigation of Manatt, Phelps and Phillips over being cc'ed documents on bidding process that would be re-started -- with a client who would withdraw from the process and never submit a bid?
At first glance, this is much ado about nothing -- on both sides -- but at least New Yorkers for Growth has a sense of humor.
The longer New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo waited to recuse himself from an investigation of Governor David Paterson, the more rapid he dropped in the polls, according to a Marist College poll.
Inside baseball? It's not fair to say Cuomo played it safe by saying Kaye was appointed and then elevated by his father when he was governor. He appointed a woman to oversee the investigation -- and an Albany insider who knows where all the bodies are buried. It makes sense.
"Why do voters think the way they do about Paterson’s future? Of those voters who think the governor should stay in office, 40% say the public doesn’t have all the facts to prove he’s guilty. 20% think his resignation would do more harm than good for the state, 14% report he’s doing a good job under the circumstances, and 13% think Paterson has a responsibility to fulfill his commitment. An additional 13% believe he should stay in office because there isn’t that much time left to his term."
Cuomo took a hit, 13 percent.
"Has New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s job approval rating suffered from his role in the Paterson investigation? The short answer is, “Yes.” Cuomo’s approval rating has dropped 13 percentage points since Marist last asked this question prior to Governor Paterson ending his candidacy for election. 54% of voters currently say Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office. 31% now believe he is performing fairly well, and 8% think he is missing the mark. 7% are unsure."
Sheldon Silver runs New York State. He's the last man standing,
If he can suggest who else controls New York's fiscal and legislative agenda, the Assembly Speaker is more than welcome to submit a name or two.
Andrew Cuomo's first challenge, if he runs for governor, will be to counter Silver's stranglehold on state government.
Governor Andrew Cuomo cannot allow himself to be pushed around by the Manhattan liberal who rules New York State. This will be the breakout moment for Cuomo, if the next governor is Cuomo.
"How does the speaker maintain his power? Is it good for New York to have one person have this much power? What benefit does the speaker derive from his position of power? Former Sen. Joe Bruno and Govs. Paterson and Spitzer seemed fine until their worlds blew up."
It's Tammany Hall like politics.
It's an autocratic system, with rules that trap people. It's a legislative chess game. It's time to break many of those rules and stop playing chess in Albany.
No matter what happens to Paterson, the Assembly Speaker is running New York.
Only if we let him.
“He is one of the wiliest, smartest people in politics,” says one Democratic strategist who’s known Silver for more than 30 years. “He knows the levers of power.”
“He has no ideology,” adds a senior Albany pol who served with Silver in the Assembly. “I don’t think he really feels strongly about anything. He loves the fight — he loved fighting with [Gov. George] Pataki. It’s about power, and I think he has total power. I can’t imagine anyone challenging him.”
They noted how Ed Koch is forming a good government coalition to challenge incumbents.
Koch knows all too well what these fights entail. His reform Democrats took down a modern incarnation of Tammany in Manhattan during the mid-1960s.
When do they reform Democrats finally sit down with the Republicans and Conservatives to make this a political war with some teeth?
Republicans won't do it alone. Conservatives need to be heeded. Conservatives were putting forge tea parties before there were tea parties, 50 years ago. When Republicans and Democrats take these reformers seriously, maybe New York's problems will finally be addressed.
In the meantime, Mr. Silver is playing a neat and powerful game of divide and conquer between regions. New York City is pitted against suburban Westchester and Long Island. Westchester and Long Island battle among themselves. Upstate is leveraged by bosses in both parties.
At the end of the day, Silver's urban coalition rules. Blame the bosses on Long Island and perhaps at times in Westchester for failing to drop the political expediency many years ago. Blame Joe Bruno and an upstate coalition that toyed with reforms, only to be devoured by their own excess before, during and after George Pataki.
And since it is happening to Democrats in the Executive Chamber, the last question is for Andrew Cuomo.
How are you going to change things, Governor Cuomo?
USA Today reported on a Siena Poll that found a majority of New Yorkers so ashamed by the latest scandals at the state Capitol that they are embarrassed to call themselves New Yorkers.
The poll found that seventy percent of voters agreed that New York has never been more dysfunctional, and by a 54% to 41% margin, voters also say that what's going on in Albany makes them "embarrassed" to call themselves New Yorkers.
But 71% would rather see David Paterson remain as governor than see him impeached by the State legislature.
This might be a gestalt moment for the Empire State. Strategically and psychologically, perhaps campaigns and candidates should prepare themselves for an election cycle where voters don't want the usual scandal-ridden dirty laundry hanging around on the front page.
Also, with national statistics showing a drastic increase in applications for unemployment, what may also be unfolding here is a natural need for people to see some stability.
The issue here is chaos, too much of it.
In our line of work, political spinmasters usually thrive on this nonsense -- but methinks we're headed for a period of caution. This doesn't put down the tea parties or THAT restless. It's just a sense that politicians won't be tolerated if they resort to mud-slinging.
The problem is that New York State is about to get worse; ethically with its elected officials (and appointed officials) along with painful fiscal shortfalls that could have school districts up in arms any day now.
The latter is the measurable crisis. It's being felt already in every school district across New York. It is about to get much worse.
Tipping point? Breaking point? More like an earthquake with bigger aftershocks.
Paterson staying as governor?
The State Legislature is already negotiating with Richard Ravitch -- or at least they're begging for him. Why not? He already gave us the MTA Payroll Tax.
The Siena Poll released today also found that a majority of New York believe Andrew Cuomo will conduct a fair and impartial investigation of the Governor and his staff, although two-thirds of voters would prefer to see the investigation conducted by an independent, outside prosecutor.
Why not start by mentioning New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, particularly since he now has near-dictatorial control of the budget process?
How about discussing Lieutenant Governor Richard Ravitch, who Democrats will summon to replace a "lame duck" governor -- and whose last "great" initiative was crafting the notorious Metro-North payroll tax?
"With Paterson gone, state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is almost certain to be elected governor, and the Democrats retain an even chance of keeping control of the state Senate, just before the redistricting process begins. And eight potentially vulnerable Democratic congressmen — Michael Arcuri , Timothy Bishop, John Hall , Dan Maffei , Eric Massa , Michael E. McMahon , Scott Murphy and Bill Owens — can fight through a tough cycle without the additional distraction of having to account for Paterson’s erratic behavior."
First, why make David Paterson the fall guy for over 40 years of liberal Democrats wasting tax dollars (and more than a few Rockefeller Republicans joining in)?
Second, Democrats have continued to lose elections in New York since last November and through last month's special elections.
Third, does Andrew Cuomo winning so easily ensure a statewide landslide for everyone else or a more sleepy turnout by Democrats?
Fourth, Democrats hold a narrow one vote lead in the State Senate -- with much bickering within their own caucus -- and a persuasive case could be made that Republicans could regain control by margin of 4-6 Republican lawmakers.
Finally, since when are eight vulnerable incumbent Democrats looking to head back to D.C. suddenly safer because David Paterson cried "uncle" after the "gray lady" (The New York Times( made an in-kind contribution to Andrew Cuomo's gubernatorial campaign with an overtly (and annoyingly) telegraphed "hit" piece?
Who's next?
Also, can we stop blaming the Executive Chamber for dysfunctional problems within our State legislature?
"... It’s fair to say that both Spitzer and Paterson have done incalculable harm to the cause of political reform in the state. And Cuomo, while possessing many admirable qualities, is no reformer."
Cuomo's push for locally approved consolidation, by referendum, was viewed with such enthusiasm by reformers that it earned him an acknowledgment by the New York State Conservative Party and an invite to that party's annual political action conference.
Re-reading the article a few times, not one mention of Sheldon Silver came up (or Joe Bruno). How about the many years of incalculable harm by "three men in a room" whose machinations always started in the same place?
Is it so hard for journalists covering New York State to grasp how government works in our legislature -- or is it just easier to make the executive the fall guy?
Is it that the New York State Assembly and State Senate has been taken for granted as an elected body of lawmakers?
Maybe it is too much like Congress.
Maybe they all have to be shown the door on Election Day.
While the article discusses black empowerment, how about empowering reformers running for the Assembly to replace nearly two generations of political lemmings encompassing every race, creed and color?
How about discussing people empowerment, participatory government, initiative and referenda, a more open (and realistic) bill creation process and a complete overhaul of the rules in New York's legislature?
Finally, how about first finding someone who can count?
“There’s more work to do, and up until the last few days I was looking forward to participating in a full four-year term,” he said. “But I am being realistic about politics. It hasn’t been the latest distraction, it has been an accumulation of obstacles that have obfuscated me from bringing my message to the public. Therefore, there are times in politics when you have to know not to strive for service, but to step back. And that moment has come for me.”
“In the last few days, it has become increasingly clear to me that I cannot run for office and try to manage the state’s business at the same time,” he continued. “In addition, I am looking forward to a full investigation of actions taken by myself and my administration. But I give you this personal oath: I have never abused my office, not now, not ever. And I believe that when the facts are revealed the truth will prevail.”
Albany is stubburn, even to one of their insiders. Racism had nothing to do with it. Andrew Cuomo will face as much resistance from his own party as Paterson.
The problem is Sheldon Silver.
The problem has been a cross-section of Democrats whose seats have belonged to the same insiders since the mid-1970s when Watergate gave liberals in New York a beachhead in the Assembly.
"As he prepared for the Friday announcement, some newspaper editorial writers were demanding more than an end to his candidacy: they called for his resignation. That had only added to the increasing sense that it would be nearly impossible for him to run the state and the campaign with the abuse case in the background."
Then who runs New York?
Between now and January of of 2011, with New York bound legally by then to a budget that won't change dramatically until April 1, 2012, a fiscal crisis will consume the Empire State.
Who will lead New York?
A lame duck governor who could yet resign, a replacement who was not elected (whose standing will likely be challenged again in court), a State Senate without a clear leader (where everyone's standing will likely be challenged again in court), a corrupt Assembly Speaker who answers to no one (whose standing is never challenged because he controls the courts), a governor-in-waiting who inherits a crisis that will be much worse by the time he is sworn 11 months from now?
One has to forecast this state government's fiscal crisis two years into the future to entirely grasp what just happened an hour ago.
Democrats are on the spot over how domestic violence is handled by Albany (and Republicans shouldn't be painting themselves as political virgins either).
How about the the operation of the State Police, State Troopers and Homeland Security -- if one follows this back to Eliot Spitzer's administration ... and before?
Meanwhile, Paterson is expected to drop out of the race for governor but yesterday he was defensive.
As this video from The New York Observer shows, Paterson is already deferring to Cuomo.
How can Cuomo conduct this investigation from the inside looking out?
The Albany Times Union noted that this is not the first time the State Police has been down this conflicted road.
... Spitzer put O'Donnell in charge of the force, and gave her a rank higher than State Police superintendent. The idea, Spitzer said, was to "restore public confidence in one of our most important government functions."
O'Donnell resigned yesterday. Everyone knows that won't be enough.
And then there's Michael Boxley, whose own violence against women has seldom gotten a sympathetic response from most New York State lawmakers.
And Hiriam Monserrate.
And a history in New York's State Capitol of double lives that now may finally be coming to an end.
The upstate newspaper puts forth a comprehensive history of how this one particular staffer's near-serial raping and drugging of women in Albany took years to finally be acknowledged as something close to a crime by the Assembly Speaker.
"Just as Paterson earlier this month defended Johnson in public remarks about his aide's alleged transgressions, Silver initially stood up for Boxley. A second charge of sexual assault by a different woman two years later finally led Silver to distance himself from his top aide, who was suspended without pay five days after he was charged with rape. Boxley soon resigned."
It also ended up costing the taxpayers $250,000 of a $500,000 civil settlement to one of the victims (long forgotten and rarely mentioned is the personal culpability for half that settlement by leadership still serving in the State legislature).
Downstate news outlets have rarely touched the Boxley matter or many other matters that beyond the northern reaches of Bear Mountain get slight coverage.
The Albany Times Union was given a comment by one of Silver allies, sounding like business as usual:
Assembly Majority Leader Ron Canestrari, D-Cohoes, said he didn't see a parallel. "That's years ago, all in the past," he said. "I think this is a level of involvement and entanglement that is very damaging to the governor."
That's the systemic problem. Lawmakers stubbornly resigned to a culture that condemns acknowledging any measurable corruption.
Do they still shun elected officials who speak "out of school" about secrets in Albany's closets, Mr. Canestrari?
Part of the problem in New York State is that upstate New York and lower New York generally don't see each other in the news. The news media has New York split into three realms; New York City, its sleepy suburbs and upstate ... as if this is not one state.
So details like date rape and the drugging of Assembly staffers get missed by journalists -- or is it that their publishers and producers have some unwritten understanding NOT to print it all?
Republicans don't get a clean getaway either. Former State GOP chairman Bill Powers hired Michael Boxley! Worse, Pataki's former Republican leader had no problem hiring the rapist AFTER the civil suit clarified his misdeeds.
The attorneys for politicians and press alike have never stopped scurrying around over the above matters. Afraid of being sued?
The list of what gets hidden is too long to list.
If Cuomo wants to be a New York State Governor with any credibility to lead with integrity, both the State conflicts of interest with law enforcement and Albany's penchant for hiding criminality must be addressed.
Otherwise, Mario's son will be known as a rubber stamp for past sins. He won't be trusted as a reformer.
It's not how Andrew Cuomo wants to enter the Executive Chamber.
Andrew Cuomo may know have it all to himself (don't tell that to Suffolk's Steve Levy or Rick Lazio) but he will be handed a lame duck budget in 2011.
It was going to be this bad, whether Paterson ran or not, but now the Executive Chamber is falling into a limbo New York has never seen before.
Also, properly investigating this controversy either falls in the Attorney General's lap -- or he has to hand it to another prosecutor.
This is not going to be as simple coup de grace as the news media is reporting.
What does Paterson's defensive status do to budget negotiations?
How wide an investigation could reach into governance problems with law enforcement entities close to the Executive Chamber that go back to the Pataki administration (and a few close to the Attorney General's office going back to Spitzer's tenure).?
Who else has a domestic violence scandal in their closet?
Do the Republicans sit back and watch or find themselves left being held as responsible for New York's fiscal plight?
Finally, does Sheldon Silver continue to expand his power or will the working press finally place their microscope on him?
It seems to be crumbling among the black leadership too.
H. Carl McCall, who met with Paterson Thursday, outlined some dim options:
“It seems to me that there are three issues that he has to deal with,” Mr. McCall said in an interview before the meeting. “One, he’s got to govern. Two, he will have to manage a campaign. And three, he will have to deal with these allegations. It’s clear to me he can’t do all of these things. The question for all of us is, which of these things will he abandon?”
"... The antagonism and politically charged relationship that exists between the two rivals greatly undermines the Attorney General’s ability to objectively and credibly investigate this matter," Cox said in a prepared statement."
Cuomo wouldn't want the legacy of indicting the state's first black governor or coming across as soft on corruption, so Democrats find themselves surrounded by multiple political meltdowns.
Out of Westchester, Nita Lowey said the following about Paterson:
"These very serious allegations must be fully and swiftly investigated, and if they are true, the Governor should no longer be in office. Aside from the allegations, the political reality is the Governor cannot be an effective candidate or official for New York.”
"Paterson's slide has been steep and persistent ever since he botched the selection of a successor to fill the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. (The state's budget mess hasn't helped either.) And today's revelations make the situation worse. Call the pall bearers."
"He was allegedly brought in to negotiate the state budget," said the Ravitch pal. "He is seriously worried about cash flow issues and concerned about whether payments to the schools can be made in March. He said, 'I am here, but I don't have access.'"
Ravitch can govern. Ironically, Paterson's departure would leave New York with someone who actually has a track record over four decades grappling with fiscal emergencies.
But Ravitch won't be allowed to govern, particularly as a lame duck, and David Paterson without an election to at least keep all sides on their toes would have little leverage over his own party.
Does the dialogue start now about a New York State budget about to do a California, California cubed (to the third power)?
The tea leaves for New York's local governments and school districts, along with its larger cities facing their own shortfalls, has the accumulative look of shutdown without significant spending cuts everywhere.
Paterson is to vulnerable to preside over budget negotiations but who in New York can fill that void?
Ravitch can.
For better or worse, there could be other casualties in the State Senate that leave Democrats without control of that legislative body. With Aqueduct's bidding being scrutinized by higher powers, it is not far-fetched speculation that Malcolm Smith and any number of his contemporaries could be found departing too.
Who is left being blamed for a fiscal default then, the Republicans?
Hopefully, the State Senate Minority under Dean Skelos will be smart enough this time to leave the Democrats to their own devices.
Ah, here’s the stuff we’ve been waiting for lo these many weeks. The Times actually rolled out a separate story a week ago introducing the key player here: David Johnson, who started working for Paterson as an intern, eventually became his driver, and now serves as one of his most senior aides despite having “also on three occasions been involved in altercations with women.”
One minor detail they saved for tonight: If you believe Johnson’s latest victim, the State Police — and the governor himself — may have tried to cover things up.
This story is galloping.
The Huffington Post joined a growing number of national news outlets this morning just starting to sift through the political rubble in Albany.
"Whether it was intentional or not, we have to admire the way the three Times Paterson scoops build on each other to create the perfect Portrait of the Governor as a Real Asshole: In the first installment, we learn of Paterson's girlfriend-beating trouble magnet aide, David W. Johnson. Maybe Paterson doesn't have the best character judgment, we think with a shrug. The second article reveals that Paterson pays for his vacations with campaign cash and gives his friend's ex-girlfriend a job. OK, so he has a little thing with using the power of his office to make things happen for himself and his buddies... uh oh. Then: Boom."
Vindication for The Times.
Paterson's statement around midnight called for transparency -- but where was it last week?
"Serious questions have been raised about contact the state police may have had with a private citizen who filed a complaint against a member of my staff," Paterson said in a statement released to The Associated Press on Wednesday night. "Any allegation of improper influence must be investigated thoroughly and completely."
"In our view, David Johnson should be commended, not demonized, ridiculed and scorned. He seemingly learned from his mistakes and rose from a troubled youth to a position of trust and importance in state government. He has nothing to be ashamed of based on what we read in the Times article and certainly neither does David Paterson for giving this man a chance."
The New York Times reported Wednesday night that Paterson called the alleged victim of a “brutal” attack before she missed a key court appearance. The woman, who is not named, also reportedly complained that the State Police had been “calling me and harassing me to drop the charges.”
The alleged assault happened shortly before 8 p.m. on Halloween in the apartment she had shared with Mr. Johnson and her 13-year-old son for about four years, according to police records.
She told the police that Mr. Johnson, who is 6-foot-7, had choked her, stripped her of much of her clothing, smashed her against a mirrored dresser and taken two telephones from her to prevent her from calling for help, according to police records.
The anatomy of this scandal exposed by the news media has a far more risky endgame.
A source told The Post that Paterson was "shocked" cops had been in touch with the woman; he didn’t find out until yesterday afternoon.
Paterson spoke to the woman as well, an official told The Post.
"She called on Super Bowl Sunday and told the governor that she had heard that she was being accused of spreading stories about him, about women at the [governor’s] mansion, and that she wanted to let the governor know that that was totally false," the official said.
Cuomo’s probe is reminiscent of the Troopergate scandal of 2007, which probed allegations that then-Gov. Eliot Spitzer had used State Police to intimidate then-Republican Senate leader Joe Bruno.
No need to wait for the story. This is New York. We can see this one coming a week away.
Ever since the Times teased its scandal about David Paterson, the state knew Andrew Cuomo was running.
Between now and probably Tuesday or Wednesday, expect some major front page story to upstage Governor David Paterson.
Andrew Cuomo should either get some attention grabbing news exclusive that leaves everyone forgeting that Paterson announced on Saturday that he is running for governor.
Or one of the tabloids will have a full page photo of Paterson dancing with a ... Republican?
The truth is that David Paterson has upstaged himself by failing to rein in Albany.
The other truth in New York is that Andrew Cuomo is the political cult of personality that will upstage everyone else. The risks for Cuomo is that this ego-centric media push -- supposedly coming naturally -- will coil resentment against him in the minority community.
It's only a matter of time before this turf war between minorities and white political leaders in both major parties causes partisan fractures throughout New York. How Paterson's candidacy was covered, though validly an indictment against State capitol politics as usual, might also be misinterpreted over time as a slight against black candidates. When it uncoils, the backlash is going to be ugly.
"When it comes to money, he's got less than a fourth of the funds his inevitable Democratic opponent, Andrew Cuomo, has collected from the party's fat cat supporters. When it comes to popular support, well , his numbers are lower Eliot Spitzer's were after the hooker scandal broke."
"He won the support of many New Yorkers by advocating a strong, fiscally conservative response to the recession, but he repeatedly caved to pressure from lawmakers and special interests. Spending, borrowing and taxes have pushed relentessly skyward."
Rick Lazio is continuing to be nice to Paterson, which is probably not a bad strategy considering that they have a common enemy (and that Paterson is so far behind in the polls that there is no reason to be undiplomatic).
Lazio told the Daily News that the Times Is 'In The Tank' For Cuomo. Liz Benjamin theorized that Lazio wants to see Paterson beat Cuomo, for obvious reasons.
"Numerous public opinion polls have shown the well-funded and popular Cuomo easily defeating Lazio, who is less well-known and vastly out-paced by the AG in fundraising. Those same polls show Lazio would have a far easier time against Paterson, who is embattled and similarly weak in the fundraising department. Also, it's a safe bet a Lazio v. Paterson contest would be a fairly tame affair, while Cuomo v. anyone is all but certain to be anything but."
Paterson won't beat Cuomo but the minority vote will be in play, perhaps so alienated after a Cuomo-Paterson primary and a Gillibrand-Ford primary for U.S. Senate that Democrats might lose a portion of that base.
And Lazio is playing to that base, as will Harold Ford against Gillibrand, and it wouldn't be impractical for Republicans to run a number of black and Hispanic candidates in key urban districts.
Rasmussen noted that Cuomo had a 28-point lead in mid-November. In late September, Cuomo led Lazio 65% to 26%. It has been worse.
"While Lazio is faring better against both his Democratic opponents, it is unclear if he is benefiting from the backlash against the national health care plan that seems to be helping many other GOP candidates in other parts of the country."
The schools, Rick.
In New York, talk about the schools.and school funding -- and property taxes, and the teachers union, and the mandates, and the State legislature ...
Former New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer was on "Good Day, New York" this morning and wasn't shy about discussing his fellow Democrats running statewide.
Spitzer defended Paterson, particularly on his experience in the State legislature and the difficulties presently running any state.
Spitzer dared Andrew Cuomo to speak up on the issues and said Gillibrand needed to stand up for what she believed in.
"If he’s going to run for governor, which is, it’s his right to do, of course, then he should answer the hard questions. How would his budget differ? How would he get the bills through the Legislature relating to ethics relating to the reform we need in New York State? In other words, answer the hard questions. Where would his program differ from the existing governor’s?"
On Gillibrand, the former governor noted that the appointed U.S. Senator had changed her positions on some fundamental issues.
"You believe something or you don't and what we need in politics right now are people who know what they believe and stand up and are forceful on that ...," explained Spitzer. "I don't like politicians who vaccilate, who change positions, whose views on fundamental issues are so maleable that they are told, 'if you want this job, change your position.'"
Spitzer wouldn't be specific on what issues, though it's no mystery that there have been plenty Gillibrand has shifted on since she was appointed. He wouldn't specify who might be telling Gillibrand what to do, though that was an obvious nameless punch at former U.S. Senator Al D'Amato.
Andrew Cuomo running for New York State Governor would seem like a natural step. But there won't be any natural political steps in 2010, for anyone in either major party.
Because Cuomo is not an announced candidate, many Democrats say, he does not have to stake out positions on such controversial and divisive topics. He is the attorney general and can act like that.
"I think certainly Andrew Cuomo is a very smart strategist and he understands the minute you announce your candidacy that every issue that is the governor's issue is his issue," said Assemblyman Mark J.F. Schroeder, a Buffalo Democrat who last year publicly said he was backing a Cuomo candidacy..
How will Republicans beat him?
First he has to beat Governor David Paterson in a primary, though Paterson may have already beaten himself. Then Cuomo has to beat Albany itself -- or at least find a way to keep its fiscal troubles off his back an entire campaign.
While the Republicans may or may not beat themselves, again, they may also rise to the challenge.
Cuomo seems unbeatable. Whether you are Rick Lazio or Chris Collins or Steve Levy or anyone else, this won't be Pataki versus Cuomo (1994). This won't be Cuomo versus Lehrman either (1982) -- or Cuomo vs. Koch (1982).
If he doesn't run, the state's ensuing fiscal collapse will be someone else's problem. If he does run, win and succeed in solving New York's economic woes, Cuomo could then aim for a White House run by 2016. But he might be as potent a presidential aspirant staying away from the partisan sinkholes and instead play hero as crime buster as Attorney General.
Many have noted that he didn't stand in the way of Eliot Spitzer's deconstruction but fixing Albany would require more than playing moralist over some hank panky. The scourge of potential legal and financial scandals would turn Mr. Cuomo into a contemporary Robespierre (not too different from how Spitzer and Giuliani were both regarded as prosecutors).
He will be as hated as he will be beloved.
The next governor has no choice. This gubernatorial fork in the road, Democrat or Republican, must clean up Albany or face a legacy worse than Chicago. Cuomo has to beat more than a Republican by November, more than Paterson in a primary, more than the undeserved shadows of his father still lurking around every media corner to bite at his reputation.
Cuomo has to defeat a man named Sheldon Silver, particularly, or the Republicans will capitalize ... and deservedly. There's a bit more to this political intrigue than one chess game. Silver has a few decisions to make of his own, as will almost every major Democratic boss in New York State.
Black Democrats and establishment players alike will cringe. What will be left of the Democratic Party in New York after ten months of vicious spin? Harold Ford and Kirsten Gillibrand are in the same rowboat, as is Tom DiNapoli -- who actually has to deliver the bad news that New York is broke -- and Attorney General hopeful Jeff Klein (who becomes the new inquisitor and executioner).
Andrew Cuomo can be like any Democrat or demonstrate independence. The deeper question is how many supposedly "new" Democrats genuinely grasp this choice. The other question is how lonely it gets once Cuomo walks the road less travelled ...
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