News Copy, New York

Conservatives Want Ron Paul As Republican Presidential Candidate: Romney At 22% In CPAC Poll

Ron Paul wins the Presidential Straw Poll at CPAC.

It wasn't even close.  Of course, these are the hardcore conservatives -- though it was a particularly younger crowd.

The Texas Congressman had 31% of the Conservative gathering supporting him (a Daily News poll had him at 80%).
 

Mitt Romney drew only 22% in the CPAC poll, though it was a fragmented vote.

Barack Obama leads Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted right before CPAC. 

As for the rest of CPAC's Presidential Straw Pall, Sarah Palin only managed 7%.  Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, a social liberal, wasn't far behind with 6%.  Indiana Congressman Mike Pence, 5%.  Newt Gingrich only 4%.  Mike Huckabee, a disappointing 4%.  Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (what's up in Indiana?), Rick Santorum and South Dakota Senator John Thune were tied with 2%.  Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (who used to fare well in such straw polls) trailed the pack with 1%.

Considering that Other (5%) and Undecided (6%) combined for 11 percent, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were the only two names that looked remotely competitive among conservatives.

Women were only 30 percent of the nearly 2,400 votes cast at the Conservative Union's Conservative Political Action Conference.

All 50 states, including DC, were represented in the voting. 48 percent were students, 54% between 18-25.

On fiscal issues, the TOP PRIORITY of Republicans in Congress was polled to be: cutting federal spending at 58%,
reducing the federal debt at 23% and cutting federal taxes at 15%.

Jim DeMint (73%), Glenn Beck, who had his fun "scolding" the Republican Party (70%), Rush Limbaugh (70%) and Mike Pence (59%) had the highest favorables.

Nancy Pelosi (94%), Harry Reid (88%) and Republican National Chairman Michael Steele (44%) had the highest unfavorables.

G.O.P. Coming Up Short In New York With Congressional Challengers: NRCC Sees Only One "Contender"

Republicans have at least seven congressional districts in New York that they should target aggressively in 2010, including two seats where John McCain beat Barack Obama in 2008.

Swing State broke out all the Obama-McCain numbers throughout each congressional district nationally, including numbers from the Bush-Kerry and Bush-Gore races.

With only 3-4 point margins of victory by Democrats in 2008, districts 24, 23, 20, 19 and 1 can be taken by Republican candidates.

The only problem is that the NRCC has upgraded only one of them to contender status, Randy Altschuler, a Republican challengers to Democrat Tim Bishop in District 1. 

Hotline reported the NRCC upgrading 28 candidates nationwide to either "Contender" or "On The Radar" but passed on upgrading Nan Hayworth in the Hudson Valley's highly competitive 19th against Democrat John Hall (she stays "on the radar").  Also missing the cut were Doug Hoffman in the 23rd, who narrowly lost to Bill Owens in a three way race in a district where Barack Obama only received 52 percent of the vote.

Strangely ignored though not going away is Christopher Cox (the son of State GOP Chairman Ed Cox) who has launched a formidable campaign against Tim Bishop in District 1, so out of the gate the NRCC already finds itself mired in a GOP primary.  The NRCC put George Demos "on the radar" and something tells me this race on the eastern end of Long Island is getting a lot of volunteers this summer.

In two other districts, the 29th in Western New York and the 13th on Staten Island and a portion of Brooklyn, John McCain won.  With Republican Mike Grimm in the 13th reported to be closing in on $300,000 or more in fundraising, it seems particularly baffling why the NRCC is missing this race where Republicans had ruled for nearly 30 years.  Grimm should be a contender, though maybe the NRCC is afraid of another primary.

As for the 19th, a sure winner for the right Republican, Nan Hayworth is boasting of over $500,000 raised (over $350,000 in personal loans to her committee) but Republican insiders have suggested that no amount of money can buy a populist edge in this distinctly conservative tea party district. 

Apparently, the NRCC agrees that Hayworth is missing something but so is most of New York's Republican establishment if they can't win back these seats.

Update on this post:  We spoke too soon.  NRCC now has "on the radar" candidate in the 29th, 24th and two in the 13th -- but News Copy believes most of them are contenders.

New York Getting More Attention In Six Congressional Races: Seven Candidates Upgraded By NRCC

"Blame It On Bush": Obama And McCain Take Cheap Shots At Former President

Hot Air did surgery on President Obama's disinformation.

Obama blamed President Bush but Ed Morrissey noted that Democrats how Congress held the purse strings:

"In three years, they increased annual federal spending by $900 billion, while the admittedly profligate and irresponsible Republican Congresses under George Bush increased annual federal spending by $800 billion — in six years.  And during the last three years before taking office as President, Obama served in the Senate that passed those bills, and he voted for every Democratic budget put in front of him."

Rasmussen Reports measured voter angst on the stimulus package, counter to the rosy picture Obama painted.

The president presented the $787-billion economic stimulus package as a success story. However, just 35% of voters believe the stimulus plan has helped the economy, while 31% believe it hurt. At this time, 39% are concerned the government will do too little to deal with the economy while 49% fear it will do too much.

Ace of Spades was a bit more blunt.

"Obama Voted for, or Signed Into Law, Every Blessed Penny of 2009's Spending"

The details followed:

"... The 2009 budget was almost exclusively approved by Democrats, with "Yeas" coming from current President then Sen. Obama, his current Vice President then Sen. Joe Biden, his current Chief of Staff then Rep. Rahm Emanuel, and his current Secretary of State then Sen. Hillary Clinton."

Obama voted to authorize $3.1 trillion in federal outlays along with a projected $400 billion deficit.  Obama voted for TARP, all $700 billion of the Troubled Assets Relief Program.  The newly sworn-in President didn't veto $787 billion stimulus bill that passed in February 2009.

But Newsbusters caught some self-loathing by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who was caught mouthing to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and said, "Blame it on Bush."

Not a Joe Wilson moment.

Obama State of the Union: President Preaches To Republican But G.O.P. Fails To Capitalize

Second thoughts on Obama's State of the Union address.

Come to think of it, I had no first thoughts.  I saw it.  I endured Obama-speak last night.

I know Glenn Beck told everyone not to see it.   I only beared with the dishonest rhetoric to get some idea what the Democrats will do next.

Obama spun the jobs and cut spending mantra well enough -- but he was too smooth and preachy.

This was Barack Obama trying to be Cool Hand Luke, making believe he was a "new" populist Blue Dog Democrat.  It didn't work.

Here was a President of the United States who was really pretending to be a reformer (or maybe Bill Clinton).

It was a good performance, maybe even a good speech but it went flat when he begged for healthcare legislation ("Let's get it done").

"I found the Republican response by Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell to be wooden ... and as cocky as Obama.  Worse, the applause and setting seemed canned and staged"

There were glimmers of true reform name dropped throughout the Obama's speech but close analysis proved it all paper thin.  There's no reality to Barack Obama, only spin.  The problem is that he can still fool people and there was plenty in his delivery -- his cocky body language -- that pretends too well to imagine all is well.

My biggest problem with the speech came after Obama was finished, a moment where the GOP should have capitalized.  Though it was steeped with substance, I found the Republican response by Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell to be wooden ... and as cocky as Obama.  Worse, the applause and setting seemed canned and staged.

Political commentators from both side of the aisle came up with more critical analysis on CNN yet FOX seemed more consumed with just saying it was a bad speech.  If you're a Sarah Palin fan, her post-address analysis seemed stage struck and empty of any substance.  She looked unprepared and without any immediacy.  There were pregnant pauses (think "deer in the headlights") where the only suspense was waiting for any words out of her mouth.

I don't believe the Republicans seized the moment.  Then again, maybe the Democrats will do all the work for them. 

Healthcare Polls Vary 20 Percent Depending On Who Pays For The Poll

Polls on healthcare vary as much as 20 percent, depending on the question and the pollster.

Obama and the Democratic agenda took a beating in Massachusetts special election, though it is being grudgingly acknowledged.  The Washington Post wrote it off to voter anger -- rather than an informed opposition to policy.

Nothing changes with the liberal fourth estate.  Liberals in the media and government don't want to admit there is valid opposition to their liberal agenda.

Obama's radioactivity continues, however, and the polls show that too.

Rasmussen Reports measured 61% saying it is time for Congress to drop health care reform and focus on more immediate ways to improve the economy and create jobs.

"Fifty-nine percent (59%) say given the country’s current economic situation, the Obama administration should wait on health care reform until the economy improves. That’s a 10-point increase from March of last year. Thirty-three percent (33%) still say the White House should move forward with health care reform."

Another trend is being sustained though.

"Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democrats say the Obama administration should keep pushing health care reform. Eighty-four percent (84%) of GOP voters and 63% of unaffiliateds think the White House should wait until the economy gets better."

The reality check has not hit Democrats or they refuse as a voting block to discern that has gone wrong with the economy or Congress.

A Kaiser Family Foundation poll disputes those poll results, particularly on independent non-affiliated voters. 

"Americans’ views of health reform generally track with their politics: Most Democrats (64%) support the proposals on Capitol Hill, while an even larger majority of Republicans (76%) oppose them. The middle ground is left to independents, with 41 percent in favor and 43 percent opposed– even as a narrow majority (52%) backs the general idea that it is more important than ever to take on health reform now"

Kaiser's poll asserts that opinions on healthcare change as voters are informed.  Fair enough.  But with one poll saying 63% want healthcare benched and another poll measuring only 43 percent opposed, it might be more a question of priorities than opposition.

In polling, the wrong question is worth a thousand words of misinformation -- but there is a valid difference between those opposing healthcare and those wanting to put it on hold.

The Washington Post poll found 52 percent of those who voted for Scott Brown said Obama was not a factor.

Do you believe that?

 

Obama Healthcare Debacle Not Going Away: Democrats Repeating 1994?

All that's missing is Newt Gingrich holding up a poster entitled, "Contract With America"

The only difference is that Democrats are debating as much among themselves, it seems.

Health care concessions riles left?

It's 1993 all over again and Republicans should be poised to regain lost ground in the 1994 mid-term Congressional elections.

The other difference is that President Barack Obama is starting to come across as a game show host more and more at each public appearance.

New York Sea Change: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?

In what could be in time a true stepping stone to the White House, New York's junior U.S. Senator is being suggested as a possible Secretary of State in the Obama administration.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?

Undoubtedly, this changes everything for the former First Lady.

Reuters had the story:  Hillary Clinton emerges as US State dept candidate

Clinton was asked Monday night by CNN if she would consider taking a post in the Obama administration.

"I am happy being a senator from New York, I love this state and this city. I am looking at the long list of things I have to catch up on and do. But I want to be a good partner and I want to do everything I can to make sure his agenda is going to be successful," Clinton said.

In eight years, Clinton would be the cat's meow of the Democratic Party and as seasoned in foreign policy as any U.S. President.

What it does for New York is open a U.S. Senate seat, with that appointment made by Governor David Paterson.

U.S. Senator Nita Lowey?

U.S. Senator Tom Suozzi?

Both had been previously mentioned as possible replacements for Clinton, if she had ascended to the presidency.

ABC News:  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton? It's Being Considered

The Washington Post: Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State?

"There's increasing chatter in political circles that the Obama camp is not overly happy with the usual suspects for secretary of state these days and that the field might be expanding somewhat beyond Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and maybe former Democratic senator Sam Nunn of Georgia."

Salon had some wicked fun speculating:

"While this remains a long shot at best, tapping Clinton to replace Rice would do more than simply revive interest in Dick Morris' off-the-wall 2005 book, "Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race." If Obama were somehow to give the top Cabinet post to his rival for the 2008 Democratic nomination, it would be, well, Lincolnesque. In assembling a Cabinet, Lincoln practiced a politics of "malice towards none" by naming William Seward, once the favorite for the 1860 Republican nomination, as his secretary of state."

 

It would almost certainly turn Hillary Clinton into the frontrunner among Democrats in 2016, under multiple scenarios.

... But can she survive the vetting process?

Sarah Palin and Bullwinkle: SNL Shoots the Moose

The Baltimore Sun had this review of Sarah Palin's SNL visit.

Colin Powell Endorses Barack Obama For President

This is more an anti-endorsement of McCain than a true endorsement of Obama.

Also, Powell slams the GOP hard ... and perhaps that's a deserved slam on certain points ... but did he have to vent his spleen on the one Republican who isn't part of that wretched cabal?

Obama Losing Ground: More Than One-Third of Lead

Hillary Clinton's anti-guru is calling it close between McCain and Obama ...

... Or, at least, as News Copy observed yesterday, getting closer.

"While we don’t know the impact of the last debate, the polling indicates that McCain has been able to close the gap with Obama markedly in the past week. Realclearpolitics.com lists six polls with a field date ending on 10-13. Their average gave Obama a margin of 8.3%. There are seven subsequent surveys with a field date ending on 10-16 and their average is an Obama lead of 5.1. The seven polls whose field date ended on the 16th only include one night of post debate polling (usually of a three night sample)."

Morris mused that the situation should clarify itself as the next few days of polling comes in.

News Copy is watching Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Missouri too.  But, if there's an election to be won, our bet is that Pennsylvania could hold the biggest surprise.

Here's a news story out of Central PA that sketches out the remotely possible reversal of fortune for Obama,  though most are feeling blue.

Very Stable Horse Race: FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia shows what they characterized as "a very stable race" -- though the "underlying dynamic" strongly favors Barack Obama over John McCain.

Obama holds a narrow advantage ranging from two to five percentage points in four of the five states and is tied with McCain in North Carolina. Keep in mind that all five of these states were carried by George W. Bush in Election 2004.

Virginia could be the "big hurt" in this election (and it serves the RNC right if they didn't correct the mistakes they made in George Allen's fiasco of a U.S. Senate race).

FOX/Rasmussion has measured that Florida is tightening (as is Ohio).

In Florida, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 46%. That’s a bit closer than last week when Obama enjoyed a seven-percentage point lead. But, as recently as mid-September, McCain had been leading by five. This is the second straight week that Obama has been over the 50% mark in Florida. McCain has not topped 47% in any of the last three Florida Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls.

Cheer up, Karol.   It might be closer than we all think.

Obama Not Qualified: 45 Percent of Americans

Karol at Alarming News is sad that Republicans are losing ...

... To "a guy who 45 percent of voters don't believe is qualified to be president."

Polling Report.com

USA Election Polls.

McCain is up in Georgia, tied in North Dakota and it's still close in Florida.

But the electoral map/math is bad.

North Carolina is still close but Virginia looks as good for Obama as it looked as bad for George Allen in 2006.

Ohio is a dead heat.

Pennsylvania looks lost, by 15 points.

Missouri is still close, six points.

Even little Maine (4 electoral votes) that seemed possibly a lynchpin state has John McCain down five points.

New York?

20 points ahead for Obama and probably growing since there is no visible campaign for McCain in this state.

Al Smith Dinner: Obama and McCain Have Some Fun

The Atlantic reports that Obama had some fun tonight at the Al Smith Dinner in Manhattan.

"There was a point in my life when I started palling around with a pretty ugly crowd.... that's right... I've been a member of the United States Senate."

ABC News reported that McCain had his fun too.

"I can't shake that feeling that some people here are pulling for me," McCain said, turning to the far side of the stage. "I'm delighted to see you here tonight, Hillary."

The annual roast, which raised $3.9 million last night to help underprivileged children, is dedicated to the memory of former Democratic New York Gov. Al Smith, the first Catholic to win the presidential nomination of a major political party, who lost to Republican Herbert Hoover in 1928, 444 electoral votes to 87.

Jonathan Martin at Politico assessed that McCain ruled the night:

McCain began with a "major announcement."

"Yes, it's true, that this morning I dismissed my entire team of senior advisers," he said.  "All of their positions will now be held by a man named Joe the plumber."

In the self-deprecation department, McCain noted that Joe had just "recently signed a very lucrative contract with a wealthy couple to handle all the work on all seven of their houses."

And should the market improve, McCain predicted that at the "first sign of recovery [Obama] will suspend his campaign and fly immediately to Washington to address this crisis."

He also recalled that Oprah had called Obama "The One" -- something his own campaign also picked up.

"Being a friend and colleague of Barack, I just called him 'that one,'" McCain said. 

"He doesn't mind at all.  In fact, he even has a pet name for me -- 'George Bush.'"

The New York Daily News reported that the dinner surpassed its goal of $2.5 milion.

You-Tube had plenty of video from the dinner:

What Would William Buckley Have Done?

We haven't given up on John McCain but one of News Copy's earliest friends, Robert George of the New York Post thinks Obama won the last debate.

Robert also reported that William Buckley's son, Christopher, has endorsed Obama.

National Review then proceeded to throw Buckley under the bus, so he resigned.

This is a "What would William Buckley have done?" moment.

Supporting Vouchers: Does she or doesn't she?

From Governing magazine's 13th Floor comes a story about Washington, D.C.'s schools chancellor, who drew praise from both Obama and McCain last night -- except they couldn't agree on whether or not she supports vouchers.

OBAMA: I’ll just make a quick comment about vouchers in D.C. Senator McCain’s absolutely right: The D.C. school system is in terrible shape, and it has been for a very long time. And we’ve got a wonderful new superintendent there who’s working very hard with the young mayor there to try…

MCCAIN: Who supports vouchers.

OBAMA: … who initiated — actually, supports charters.

MCCAIN: She supports vouchers, also

Her name is Michelle Rhee and she does apparently support vouchers, with reservations.

With all the hot button political talk on education, it's good to see some agreement (almost) by both sides of the aisle on schools.

Governing ran this profile on Rhee last August.

Hail to Joe the Plumber

Joe's going to win this national election.

Joe Wurzelbacher, an Ohio man looking to buy a plumbing business is interviewing Presidential candidates -- and he seems to like the less-tax, more-money-in-your-pocket approach of John McCain than the steal-from-the-rich/give-to-the-poor socialism of Barack Obama.

It's nothing personal.

Just show Joe the Plumber the money.

The Huffington Post reported tonight how John McCain pleaded Joe the Pumber's case:

"You were going to put him in a higher tax bracket which was going to increase his taxes, which was going to cause him not to be able to employ people, which Joe was trying to realize the American dream," McCain said.

The Wall Street Journal viewed the economic plans of both candidates.

"Both candidates' plans are in line with their parties' orthodoxy and their own prior initiatives. Sen. McCain is relying largely on traditional Republican tax cuts. Sen. Obama uses a big government stick -- a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures for banks receiving assistance through the federal rescue plan -- and traditional Democratic talk of keeping jobs in the U.S."

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal also reported today that the market slump has not been slowed -- and loss of fiscal confidence threatens to make matters worse.

McCain Puts Obama On The Spot: CNN

"Sen. Obama, I am not President Bush... You wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

McCain did more than hold his own.  There were a few moments tonight when Barack looked more like a junior Senator than a party's national candidate.

The Wall Street Journal had extensive coverage, including a transcript of the debates.

McCain sounded like a Republican.  Obama sounded like a liberal Democrat.

"Nobody likes taxes," Sen. Obama said in an exchange early in the debate. "But ultimately we've got to pay for the core investments" necessary for the economy.

"If nobody likes taxes, let's not raise anybody's, OK?" Sen. McCain retorted with a laugh.

McCain Provokes Several Sharp Exchanges:  CNN

Another CNN headline; "McCain Puts Obama On The Spot"

FOXNews made it sound like a boxing match: Candidates Hit Hard at Final Presidential Debate

Copping Out on the Class War: Blaming the GOP

I can agree that modern conservatism began as "a movement of dissident intellectuals" but there's too much self-loathing in this column by David Brooks in The New York Times on the class war.

I can even agree that Republicans are dumb.  But Democrats are dumber, and this "none of the above" sort of thinking is political scorched earth.

" ... Over the past few decades, the Republican Party has driven away people who live in cities, in highly educated regions and on the coasts. This expulsion has had many causes. But the big one is this: Republican political tacticians decided to mobilize their coalition with a form of social class warfare. Democrats kept nominating coastal pointy-heads like Michael Dukakis so Republicans attacked coastal pointy-heads."

Democrats are still nominating urbane pointy heads.

What's driving people away are higher taxes implemented by Democrats.  People are voting with their feet, moving away or not voting at all.  It may take time before the voter angst is re-focused but it won't be on Republicans.

Maybe this smatters of self-loathing on my own part but a lot of those "highly educated regions and on the coasts" (and academia) are self-entitled elistist lemmings whose politically correct voting patterns have taxed themselves into oblivion.

Like the suburbs of New York City; Westchester County and Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey.

Yeah.  Right here.

We did this to ourselves, not the Republican Party and not middle america.

Why can't the media stop copping out the class war on the GOP -- and take some responsibility for this delusional Greenspan-esque spiral sucking us down?

Silicon Valley, northern Virginia, the suburbs outside of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Raleigh-Durham. The West Coast and the Northeast are "mostly gone" because those liberal elitist sections of the universe were out of touch governmentally -- and won't that be clear in the coming days as California's default ($7 billion!!!) is front page news.

New York is next.

Venom and Volatility: Politics Turned Upside Down

Yesterday, Forbes reported markets watching the LIBOR rate overseas.

By Friday afternoon, Reuters had reported the rate dropping by half -- apparently signaling a thaw in the credit freeze -- but there's no clarity whether this is the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end.  It was the worst week ever for the Dow.

The Street summarized today's volatility.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung violently throughout the session. The Dow suffered a sharp selloff of nearly 700 points early in the session to fall briefly below 8000 for the first time in more than five years. It heaved briefly into positive territory two times, before ending the day down 128 points, or 1.5%, at 8451.19.

The DOW industrial average suffered a loss of 1874 points or 18.2% over the past week, handily above the 16.7% loss from October 1932, and the 13.2% decline completed on Oct. 23, 1987, the week that started with Black Monday.

Politics has been pushed to the side, upstaged by economic realities and its fueling unstable reactions from voters and politicians alike.

Tough week to be a candidate, for sure, and New York's politicians weren't helped by Mike Bloomberg's term limits troubles and the usual budget sniping between bureaucrats.  The people are looking for a target.  They need/want/demand someone to vent their rage upon.  President Bush spoke to the country today -- after an initial positive flurry on Wall Street -- and markets nearly tanked again.

Amid this all stands Obama, an unproven cult of personality whose associations with Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, ACORN and the usual suspects in Congress (and Chicago) make him seem too shady.  The liberals are accusing Republicans of preying to hate, misplaced anger.

The liberals are preying on fear.

John McCain finally told the angry crowds to temper their rage, reported The New York Times.

When a man told him he was “scared” of an Obama presidency, Mr. McCain replied, “I want to be president of the United States and obviously I do not want Senator Obama to be, but I have to tell you — I have to tell you — he is a decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States.” The crowd booed loudly at Mr. McCain’s response.

This is different.

With a little over three weeks left before a nation votes, that rage could be headed anywhere.

Right now, it's aimed at George Bush and the GOP.  It's a dangerous mix of panic and opportunism -- and it's time for Obama to stop fanning the flames of the Dow's drop.

Ever the Wonkette, Ana Marie Cox of Radar Online had a more dire analysis of the hate on the campaign trail.

There's no one left but the hecklers.  Ms. Cox had her own explanation why.

"Because McCain's gonna lose. To a black guy."

It's a political campaign turned upside down.

McCain in a Bear Market: George Will

Food for thought, courtesy of George Will.

Many millions of American households are gingerly opening envelopes containing reports of the third-quarter losses in their 401(k) and other retirement accounts -- telling each household its portion of the nearly $2 trillion that Americans' accounts have recently shed. In this context, the McCain-Palin campaign's attempt to get Americans to focus on Obama's Chicago associations seems surreal -- or, as a British politician once said about criticism he was receiving, "like being savaged by a dead sheep."

It's still the economy, stupid.

269-269: The Electoral Apocalypse

Andrew Romano of Newsweek is having too much fun at Stumper.

Romano's forecasting a 269-269 tie among the electoral vote in this national election.

He's calling it "The Apocalypse" -- and he explains that the 12th Ammendment of the Constitution is a little more complicated than a simple roll call vote in the House of Representatives.

"Given that Democrats are expected to expand their current 235-199 majority by 12 to 16 seats, you'd expect Obama to win in a walk, right? Not quite. Giving individual members one vote each would skew the results toward big states like California and New York, so the House doesn't allow it. Instead, each state gets one vote, regardless of its population; to win a state's vote, a candidate must win the votes of a majority of its representatives. My home state of New Jersey, for example, has 13 congressmen; if seven vote for Obama and six for McCain, Obama pockets the Garden State's sole vote."

Madness.

He who amazes 26 state votes in the House wins.

House Passes Bailout: It's STILL The Economy, Stupid

William Kristol of The Daily Standard this morning mistakenly ties McCain's fate to the Bailout.

"The situation was made worse by the perception that the GOP (the Bush administration) was both presiding over a financial meltdown and obstructing efforts to deal with it (House Republicans). Republicans lost both ways. If you disliked the bailout, you were angry the Bush administration--and if you thought the bailout necessary, you were angry at the House Republicans. All in all, it was a bad three weeks for the Bush administration and congressional Republicans--and the Republican presidential ticket suffered."

The House passed the bailout 263-171 -- but it's still the economy, stupid.

Siena Poll: McCain/Palin Lose Ground In 'Burbs

Before the debate between Palin and Biden, News Copy's numbers crunchers started sifting through the poll data from Siena College's most recent survey.

This is one instance where the numbers are worse than the spin.

Our focus is more out of the suburbs, where I'm hearing from local and regional races depending on the vote from the soccer moms (and the same wage earners about to be hammered by more layoffs on Wall Street).  In other words, "It's the economy, stupid" -- and it's not good around here.  In addition to now officially being the highest taxed county in the country, the fiscal sinkhole is only a commuter train ride away.

Obama leads McCain 58-36 percent.  That's not unusual for New York State but the numbers in the suburbs aren't pretty.

Obama is ahead 60-31 percent in the sleepy suburbs.  That's Long Island and Westchester, areas that have slipped from being Republican strongholds to bases of power for the Democrats in less than 20 years.

On "Revitalizing the Economy" -- 30 percent of New Yorkers think McCain would be effective and only 37 percent in the suburbs.  Half of suburban voters rated Obama higher and 57 percent statewide.

That means the bleeding on the economy, politically and perception-wise, is happening right here in Westchester County.  And Republicans are getting it right between the eyes, even though Democrats control the County and State governments (who should be held responsible for picking people's pockets).

On the bailout being on people's minds "a great deal" -- nearly 70 percent of suburbanites admitted to "paying attention" (63 percent statewide).

Sarah Palin?

The numbers were painful.

53 percent unfavorables among independent voters.  55 percent unfavorables, women.  58 unfavorables, 55+ age group.

56 percent unfavorables in the suburbs.  Biden had 56 percent FAVORABLES in the same areas.

So the majority of the highest taxed county in America is voting for two liberal "tax and spend" Democrats ...

Liz Benjamin of The Daily News was kind enough to post the cross tabulations on that newspaper's blog The Daily Politics.  The "cross tabs" indicate a familiar story for Republicans in New York.  But Palin and McCain are not resonating with suburban voters and Palin is not resonating with women in this state.

By the way, Palin's still getting good spin from the "talking heads" at this late hour (except George Stefanapolis, whose calling Biden the winner) ...

Let's see where all those negatives go now.

Siena Poll: New York Feeling Blue

Siena (College) Research Institute poll offers some big bad numbers for Democrats. 

Obama's ahead, 58-32 percent, and McCain's support since September has slipped.

In New York, at least, the political wolf is at the door for Republicans.  Nothing new -- but it's getting worse for the GOP ... MUCH worse.  It's the suburban vote and numbers outside New York City that should have local/regional Republican campaigns nervous.

Palin's effectiveness in New York might be on the ropes tonight.

Liz Benjamin at The Daily News has the details. 

Deep Thoughts With John McCain: The "Hypocrite" Ad.

John McCain's campaign is now speaking in haiku.

Can we just talking about cutting taxes?

This ad must have been the result of a brain storming session where some very abstract free association was taking place.  Or they maybe they really just wanted to find a warm fuzzy way to call Obama a hypocrite.

Or maybe a very blunt "October surprise" is coming.  The "Who's Barack Obama?" is the tip off.

McCain and Obama Both Want Bailout

Both Barack Obama and John McCain want Congress to approve the bailout, reports Reuters.

Why do I feel as though the Presidential election just became irrelevant?