News Copy, New York

Orange County Gears Up To Challenge John Hall: Incumbent Democrat Not Raising Money

Incumbent Congressman John Hall (D-Dover Plains) isn't raising money and challengers are lining up.  The 19th Congressional District only went 52-48% for Barack Obama in 2008, with John McCain winning Putnam County and portions of northern Westchester (particularly the town of Somers).

The two-term Democrat must be viewed as extremely vulnerable with only $451,584 on hand, according to F.E.C. reports.  Republican Nan Hayworth has $519,007 on hand but already had $292,297 in campaign debts by the first of the year.

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Hall couldn't remember the lyrics to the national anthem before a Marist College women's basketball game Sunday night. For a professional singer, Hall gave a lazy rendition -- or maybe he didn't want to sing certain lyrics ("O'er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming")?

See for yourself.  It was so uninspiring that his flat repetition of the same lyrics almost goes unnoticed.

Hall better sharpen up.  Republicans in Orange County intend to put forth a significant pro-life conservative Republican challenger in the coming weeks.

Orange County GOP Chairman Bill DeProspo has focused on recruiting a "true conservative" to unify the Conservative and Republican parties -- the same way he aggressively backed and fundraised Greg Ball's aborted run.

And it is clear, directly from New York State Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long and his entire operation that Conservatives do not want to support Mount Kisco native Nan Hayworth.

Local chairs on the Westchester County Conservative Committee have expressed doubts about Hayworth's conservative credentials -- and there are fears of a credibility gap on abortion.

Questions are being raised by Conservatives and Republicans alike about Hayworth accepting money from a the American Medical Group Association, a PAC significantly funded by the Mount Kisco Medical Group where Hayworth's husband is CEO.  There are unsubstantiated claims that abortions are performed there -- and denials by Dr. Scott Hayworth that the Mount Kisco Medical Group is an abortion clinic.  The are also questions about the PAC itself, with 81% percent of its recipients being Democrats.

Hayworth is the only candidate in the race with a committee filed properly with the F.E.C., though former Tuxedo Mayor David McFadden is announcing his candidacy on Saturday.  Multiple sources in Orange County have repeatedly cautioned that McFadden is too ridden with legal and financial problems to be taken seriously.

In addition to McFadden, Yorktown's Tom DeChiaro and Southeast's Neil Di Carlo -- both openly pro-life candidates -- had told reporters their interest in 19th.  Neither appear yet to have filed with the F.E.C. or put together an organized campaign.

News Copy can confirm that an Orange County native will enter the race for the 19th, described privately by Conservatives and Republicans as "organized and intelligent" -- a "pro-life tea party conservative Republican" who can defeat John Hall.

NRCC Elevates Hayworth To Contender: Endorsed By Tea Party Group As Hall Stumbles

A tea party group from the city of Port Jervis in Orange County called the Tristate Sons of Liberty has endorsed Republican Congressional candidate Nan Hayworth.

Hayworth is vying to face off against Democrat John Hall in the 19th Congressional District.

The same day as the tea party endorsement, Hayworth was elevated to contender status by the NRCC on the basis of her fundraising.

"Hayworth’s campaign has already achieved some success, reporting $519,000 cash on hand as of December 31, which is $67,416 more than Democrat incumbent Hall had on hand."

A Republican surpassing an incumbent Democrat in fundraising this early in an election cycle is significant.

It's an indication that Hall might be more than vulnerable.  Sources in the Hudson Valley have suggested the two-term House Rep is "giving up" but the NRCC cautioned that the 19th was won by Barack Obama (52-48).

Hayworth's financial advantage makes her formidable, so anyone looking to challenge her better hurry up.

Back in December, the City Hall blog reported that Assemblyman Greg Ball was being asked to re-enter the race.

Ball appears solely focused on running for State Senate, despite that leaving him on a collision course with popular incumbent State Senator Vincent Leibell.  The NRCC still openly praises Ball but he is a political peck's bad boy or whipping boy depending on who you speak to ...

As for Hayworth, money changes a lot of minds but the following sentiments from two months ago still appear to hold true.

The county chairs say their main misgiving about Hayworth is her lack of political experience. But a personal dispute is playing into it as well: Hayworth hired John Hicks, the former party chair of Orange County, as her campaign advisor. Hicks is embroiled in a long-term dispute with DeProspo, who helped oust him. DeProspo says that by choosing Hicks, Hayworth has displayed her political naiveté and an unwillingness to fit in with the local G.O.P. team.

“I think that the NRCC has looked at [Hayworth] on paper,” he said.' “They have their own goals and benchmarks and guidelines…what they really, really like about her is that she has a lot of money.”

As chairman of Orange County in 1996, Hicks found himself at odds with Conservatives over his support of Sue Kelly -- whose radical late-term partial-birth abortion stands then had her at odds with half the national Republican Party.  DeProspo's backing the liberal William Weld for governor in 2006 didn't endear himself to Conservaties either -- but the Orange County Chairman has openly articulated a willingness to support a pro-life conservative in the 19th.

So far, that candidate has not arrived.

Meanwhile, News Copy was handed solid confirmation on another detail in the 19th that may surprise people.

The same political operatives within the NRCC praising Nan Hayworth had far more good things to say about Greg Ball's aborted candidacy.  The respect for Ball's run in the 19th was so effusive -- by NRCC staff simultaneously promoting Hayworth -- that it seemed hard to believe that this was the same organization Nan Hayworth's campaign had claimed wanted Ball out of the race over a faulty poll.

Currently, Greg Ball has not articulated ANY plans to re-enter this race nor does that appear likely.  However, Hayworth is vulnerable to a challenge in a primary -- regardless of what the rocket scientists in D.C. say. 

Wanted In New York: Real Republicans And True Conservatives To Run For Congress

Congressional Quarterly mistates the situation in New York with its "surplus" of candidates running for Congress.

In the 19th, for example, the problem is simple.  Nan Hayworth has the money ($519,000) but also the "potential baggage" drawn from extreme pro-abortion ties.

Urban Elephants was a bit more blunt:

NRCC Gives UP ON NY-19 -- Candidate "Unimpressive"

Dan Peterson, the outgoing Manhattan Young Republican Chairman, had heard similiar whispers out of Washington, D.C. that News Copy's sources have been sharing for three weeks now.

Actually, we had heard MUCH worse, not from the NRCC but more direct commentary on the following:

"The NRCC sees Hayworth as a tremendously unimpressive and uninspiring candidate who has not warmed to local party support and is considered too liberal to get the grassroots base excited. The NRCC is now realizing that she was really only taken into consideration because of her wealth and not her ability to network throughout the district..."

The point being that New York better wake up about what constitutes a true Republican candidate, let alone a true conservative candidate.  Peterson was attacked by pro-abortion Republicans in New York City, a common theme these days between Republicans in New York, and precisely what plagued the 23rd last year.

Politico indicated that another rift looms in the 23rd, where Doug Hoffman is not getting Republican support after nearly winning last year as a Conservative!

New York Republican operatives want Will Barclay, who has the credentials and the location and probably looks more like a candidate than Hoffman.  But there's a problem, a systemic one.

"The drawback is that he lost a Republican-held seat in a closely watched 2008 state Senate special election. And the two most recent congressional GOP nominees with backgrounds in the New York Legislature — Scozzafava and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, who lost to Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy in another special election last year — have fared poorly."

There is a breed of Republican strategist in New York who suffers from fear and loathing about parts of the Republican platform.  And they keep losing elections (and make a lot of money in the process).

If they were horses, it would be time to shoot some of these RHINO-like consultants.

One can only hope/pray/beg that the usual suspects running campaigns into a politically correct Bermuda Triangle are not given permission again by Dean Skelos to ruin Republican chances in the State Senate.

Congressional Quarterly described the line in the sand as the jockeying for New York's third party endorsements.

Orange County Chairman Bill DeProspo said that for a Republican, running without the Conservative Party endorsement is akin to political suicide. “In the state of New York, if you think you can run for a congressional seat without the Conservative line and without the Independent line, you’re just not paying attention,” he said.

DeProspo himself is indicating a run against Hayworth -- but there are whispers of at least three strong (and well-financed) pro-life Republicans possibly challenging Nan Hayworth to a primary.

For pro-life Republicans, this is not complicated.  For conservative Republicans, this is a relief.  For Republicans who know a real Republican and a true conservative will win in their locales, this is common sense.

In a column entitled, Dede Deja Vu?, Raquel Okyay of Ulster County remembered that it was a liberal State Senator in the 23rd who ambushed Republicans over gay marriage and abortion by endorsing the Democrat over Hoffman in the closing week of the campaign.

"No one could have predicted that the Republican-endorsed candidate Dede Scozzafava would drop out of the race just three days before the election, endorse the Democrat and burn the Republicans, but what happened is more than just a bad turn of events, it is a result of choosing the wrong candidate to begin with. And it appears they are about to make the same mistake in New York’s 19th Congressional District race this year."

It's not just the 19th and the 23rd headed for a primary.

Congressional Quarterly noted how Republicans Michael Grimm, a former FBI agent, and Michael Allegretti, a former aide to New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) are both running for Rep. Michael McMahon’s (D) Staten Island-based 13th district.

Bloomberg aide versus a a Guy Molinari backed F.B.I. agent?  Allegretti is well-liked but in residential Staten Island, Bloomberg versus the former Borough President is a no brainer.  In New York, it's instead going to be a costly primary.

The NRCC has only elevated one New York candidate to contender, Randy Altschuler in the 1st against tea party plagued Democrat Tim Bishop.  But even Altschuler apparently faces a primary against as many as three candidates.

Raquel Okyay's advice to State GOP Chairman Ed Cox in the 19th is simple enough:

a) Look for a candidate that is not a wealthy liberal;
b) Is likable enough to get the support of the tea party and conservative movement; and
c) Is serious about real change in New York and in Washington.

"Mr. Cox – it’s a pop-up, put your glove out and catch the ball!"

Of course, there is the train of thought that competitive Republican primaries will rouse the G.O.P.'s base in this year of tea parties.

Yeah ... tell that to all the donors who will be asked for money ...