News Copy, New York

New York Republicans Focus On "All Important" State Senate Following Assembly Victories

Chalk up three out of four seats for the Republicans in the New State Assembly in Tuesday's special elections.

Newsday reported that Dean Murray appears to have won his Assembly race in Suffolk County and Michael Montesano has won in Nassau County.

Now the fighting starts over who gets the money from Republican donors for November's races.  Betting money says most of it goes to State Senate Republicans, who must win back the majority to regain control of the all-important redistricting.

Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb acknowledged to the Albany Times Union that it had been a long time since Republicans in the Assembly had strung together three wins this way.

“I think this is going to bode very good for us in November. And when it comes to public policy, we’re going to continue to fight for these issues on the streets,” Kolb said. “If they continue to take that tack, we will have any greater gains than people can anticipate [when senators are seated] in January.”

Dean Skelos commended Kolb on what the New York Daily News coined, "The Advancing GOP Wave":

"... The message is a Republican message, and it's resonating with the voters. Also, the Republicans, at least in Westchester and Suffolk, were outspent by DACC six or seven to one, if not more, and still were successful."

National Review had some fun posting, "For a Dead Party, They Sure Keep Winning a Bunch of Races", with one reader summing up the situation in the supposedly sleepy suburbs of New York City.

"I am up in White Plains and people are shocked about what went on in the 89th district. This district has been in Democratic hands for 17 years and Harckham had three times the amount of money on hand. I have to tell you, if people are turning on the Democrats in the "People's Republic of Westchester", home to the richest & snobbiest leftist you have ever met . . . . They are in real trouble nationally."

Usually liberal-tipped in its editorial bent, The Journal News called it "Lessons for the Democrats" -- and pulled no punches:

"One surefire way to keep losing elections, for village hall or Washington: Keep moving slow on reform, particularly reform that reaches taxpayers' pocketbooks; and keep being last to tune in to the public's frustrations. Voters seem of a distinct mind to let others try where Democrats so far have failed."

The State Senate is important, described as "all important" by most observers, but the State GOP shouldn't miss an opportunity in 2010 with the New York State Assembly.

Bob Castelli And New York Republicans Capture Another Landslide Victory In Westchester: 56-44% In 89th Assembly District

With 96 percent of districts reporting in a special election for Westchester's 89th State Assembly seat, Republican Bob Castelli has received a 56-44% landslide victory against Democrat Peter Harckham.

For New York, for Westchester, for Republicans and for taxpayers exasperated with business as usual in Albany -- tonight was the game changer.

"It's a shot across the bow to people like Sheldon Silver and entrenched bosses," said Castelli in his victory speech.

Another big winner tonight was Westchester County Republican Chairman Doug Colety, whose party's victory in this former Democratic bastion (with registration edge still overwhelmingly Democrat), demonstrated to the rest of New York that Republicans can win anywhere -- even Westchester's notoriously liberal eastern corridor.

Also a big winner is newly elected Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, whose team came through to help Castelli -- a repeat of last year's 57-43% victory.

More important, the presence of tea party activists across the mid and lower Hudson Valley during this special election couldn't be missed.  Republicans have wisely tapped a renewed organization and new enthusiasm of a dozen local political committees in this Assembly district.  Dozens of new volunteers and leaders to the fray.  The margin of victory was a combined 13 percent from the Conservative and Independence parties.

This was clearly a grass-roots effort and indicative of things to come in New York State. 

New York Republicans Aim At Tuesday's Special Elections: Proving November Was No Fluke

Democrats are pulling out the liberal guns in New York's sleepy suburbs to stave off any further tea party upsets.

House Reps. Nita Lowey and John Hall know what is at stake in New York City's suburbs.

Three of four special elections for State Assembly seats are expected to be won by Republicans, due to a growing tea party presence in Westchester and Long Island.

David Singer of Scarsdale offers an insightful analysis in The Huffington Post, aptly entitled "Reading The Tea (bagger) Leaves ..."

Republican Michael Montesano is expected to win Nassau County's 15th Assembly District, as is Democrat David Weprin in Queens County's 24th in a perennial liberal bastion.  However, Suffolk's District 3 with Republican Dean Murray against Democrat Lauren Thorden and Westchester's 89th with Republican Bob Castelli against Democrat Peter Harckham could score additional victories for the G.O.P. that would have been political funerals in previous years.

In Westchester, a win would be further vindication for that county Republican organization:

"The Democrats have a 10,000 registered voter edge over the Republicans, but in a special election all bets are off. Harckham and Castelli are known in the northern Westchester part of the district -- but have limited name recognition in the higher-populated southern end. This too is a jump ball and will depend on the GOTV effort waged by each candidate."

Sources have told News Copy that Congressman John Hall has dedicated his staff and himself to helping the Democrat win in the lower reaches of his own 19th Congressional District.  It's also no surprise to learn that former Congresswoman Sue Kelly and her husband were manning the phones for Castelli.

"A victory by Castelli would prove last year's landslide by Rob Astorino in Westchester was no fluke.  It would change the assessment by donors and national Republicans alike on dozens of state legislative and congressional races throughout New York and the northeast."

At stake is a vulnerable spike in the heart of a liberal "gentry" region that Democrats in New York or federally cannot afford to lose any ground.  The bottom line is that a victory by Castelli would prove that last year's landslide by Rob Astorino (57-43%) to become county executive was no fluke.  It would also change the assessment by donors and national Republicans alike on dozens of state legislative and congressional races throughout New York and the northeast.

"... If the Republicans take back AD#3 with Murray and AD#89 with Castelli, this will be a sign of trouble for the Democratic party up and down the line, likely accelerating the exit of David Paterson from the gubernatorial race, and indicating better odds to the Republicans retaking control of the State Senate in November."

These special elections are the game changer in a state supposedly claimed by liberal Democrats....

The Yonkers Tribune covered Harckham being endorsed by eleven-term incumbent Nita Lowey, whose 18th Congressional District covers the lower portion of the 89th, and Hall, whose 19th Congressional District covers most of northern Westchester.