News Copy, New York

Copping Out on the Class War: Blaming the GOP

I can agree that modern conservatism began as "a movement of dissident intellectuals" but there's too much self-loathing in this column by David Brooks in The New York Times on the class war.

I can even agree that Republicans are dumb.  But Democrats are dumber, and this "none of the above" sort of thinking is political scorched earth.

" ... Over the past few decades, the Republican Party has driven away people who live in cities, in highly educated regions and on the coasts. This expulsion has had many causes. But the big one is this: Republican political tacticians decided to mobilize their coalition with a form of social class warfare. Democrats kept nominating coastal pointy-heads like Michael Dukakis so Republicans attacked coastal pointy-heads."

Democrats are still nominating urbane pointy heads.

What's driving people away are higher taxes implemented by Democrats.  People are voting with their feet, moving away or not voting at all.  It may take time before the voter angst is re-focused but it won't be on Republicans.

Maybe this smatters of self-loathing on my own part but a lot of those "highly educated regions and on the coasts" (and academia) are self-entitled elistist lemmings whose politically correct voting patterns have taxed themselves into oblivion.

Like the suburbs of New York City; Westchester County and Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey.

Yeah.  Right here.

We did this to ourselves, not the Republican Party and not middle america.

Why can't the media stop copping out the class war on the GOP -- and take some responsibility for this delusional Greenspan-esque spiral sucking us down?

Silicon Valley, northern Virginia, the suburbs outside of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Raleigh-Durham. The West Coast and the Northeast are "mostly gone" because those liberal elitist sections of the universe were out of touch governmentally -- and won't that be clear in the coming days as California's default ($7 billion!!!) is front page news.

New York is next.

269-269: The Electoral Apocalypse

Andrew Romano of Newsweek is having too much fun at Stumper.

Romano's forecasting a 269-269 tie among the electoral vote in this national election.

He's calling it "The Apocalypse" -- and he explains that the 12th Ammendment of the Constitution is a little more complicated than a simple roll call vote in the House of Representatives.

"Given that Democrats are expected to expand their current 235-199 majority by 12 to 16 seats, you'd expect Obama to win in a walk, right? Not quite. Giving individual members one vote each would skew the results toward big states like California and New York, so the House doesn't allow it. Instead, each state gets one vote, regardless of its population; to win a state's vote, a candidate must win the votes of a majority of its representatives. My home state of New Jersey, for example, has 13 congressmen; if seven vote for Obama and six for McCain, Obama pockets the Garden State's sole vote."

Madness.

He who amazes 26 state votes in the House wins.

Biden and Palin: It's The Syntax, Stupid

From a linguistics perspective, CNN said the debate was dumbed down.

The analysis noted that the "passive voice can be used to deflect responsibility; Biden used active voice when referring to [Vice President Dick] Cheney and [President] Bush; Palin countered with passive deflections."

CNN relied on The Global Language Monitor out of Austin, Texas.

Vice Presidential Debate
	Biden	Palin	Comment
Grade Level	7.8	9.5	Palin raises a few eyebrows here.
No. of Words	5,492	5235	This is a surprise; shows tremendous restraint on the normally loquacious Biden.  Obama used 20 more words per minute than McCain.
Sentences/Paragraph	2.7	2.6	A statistical tie.
Words/Sentence	15.8	19.9	Palin even outdistances professorial Obama on this one; Obama scored 17.4
Characters/Word	4.4	4.4	Everyone has apparently learned that shorter words are easier to understand (rather than monosylablic words facilitate comprehension).
Passive Voice	5%	8%	Passive voice can be used to deflect responsibility;  Biden used active voice when referring to Cheney and Bush;  Palin countered with passive deflections.
Ease of Reading	66.7	62.4	100 is the easiest to read (or hear).

Here's more on the reading level of past Presidential debates.

Biden: Ready To Gaffe

McCain has some fun at Biden's expense, reported The Huffington post.

Siena Poll: McCain/Palin Lose Ground In 'Burbs

Before the debate between Palin and Biden, News Copy's numbers crunchers started sifting through the poll data from Siena College's most recent survey.

This is one instance where the numbers are worse than the spin.

Our focus is more out of the suburbs, where I'm hearing from local and regional races depending on the vote from the soccer moms (and the same wage earners about to be hammered by more layoffs on Wall Street).  In other words, "It's the economy, stupid" -- and it's not good around here.  In addition to now officially being the highest taxed county in the country, the fiscal sinkhole is only a commuter train ride away.

Obama leads McCain 58-36 percent.  That's not unusual for New York State but the numbers in the suburbs aren't pretty.

Obama is ahead 60-31 percent in the sleepy suburbs.  That's Long Island and Westchester, areas that have slipped from being Republican strongholds to bases of power for the Democrats in less than 20 years.

On "Revitalizing the Economy" -- 30 percent of New Yorkers think McCain would be effective and only 37 percent in the suburbs.  Half of suburban voters rated Obama higher and 57 percent statewide.

That means the bleeding on the economy, politically and perception-wise, is happening right here in Westchester County.  And Republicans are getting it right between the eyes, even though Democrats control the County and State governments (who should be held responsible for picking people's pockets).

On the bailout being on people's minds "a great deal" -- nearly 70 percent of suburbanites admitted to "paying attention" (63 percent statewide).

Sarah Palin?

The numbers were painful.

53 percent unfavorables among independent voters.  55 percent unfavorables, women.  58 unfavorables, 55+ age group.

56 percent unfavorables in the suburbs.  Biden had 56 percent FAVORABLES in the same areas.

So the majority of the highest taxed county in America is voting for two liberal "tax and spend" Democrats ...

Liz Benjamin of The Daily News was kind enough to post the cross tabulations on that newspaper's blog The Daily Politics.  The "cross tabs" indicate a familiar story for Republicans in New York.  But Palin and McCain are not resonating with suburban voters and Palin is not resonating with women in this state.

By the way, Palin's still getting good spin from the "talking heads" at this late hour (except George Stefanapolis, whose calling Biden the winner) ...

Let's see where all those negatives go now.

VP Debate: Pundits Pump Palin

The News Copy team cringed a few times watching Palin answer.  I wasn't impressed.  The pundits were being kind.

Local political consultants are looking at the numbers in the New York City suburbs from the Siena Poll (only 39 percent favorables).  It's an awful predicament facing local Republicans who are relying on some bounce from the national ticket.

Tonight was important.

Tom Brokaw spoke well of Palin's performance.  That's something, though everyone else on NBC said it would be a soon-forgotten debate.

On CBS, with Katie Couric moderating (and actually sounding a little "gee wiz" herself), Dee Dee Myers got away with calling Palin "folksy" without anyone correcting her.

What's going on here?  Has everyone in the media and and the Presidential race decided to be "folksy" too?  To some extent, Palin managed to translate her friendly persuasion with enough sound bytes to survive but Biden carried himself well with some control of his notorious emotions.

Pollster Frank Luntz on FOX News is picking the brains of his focus group and a majority of hands were raised when he asked if Palin won the debate.

Larry Kudlow, "At least she got a tie and a tie for Sarah Palin is a win" -- but is a tie for Palin a loss for McCain?

The general consensus -- media-wise -- is that Palin won the debate.  I don't agree and I will be curious what the next poll shows.

Paul Begala on CNN said Palin's mission was to repair her damaged reputation and he believed she succeeded.  That's as good as it gets in this murky media minefield, so I guess the pitbull with lipstick survived her first national debate.

VP Debate: No Earthquakes

Nearly 90 minutes into the VP debate and I wish Sarah Palin would wipe the grin off her face.

And, boy, she can talk fast.  But she's no pitbull tonight.  The gloves aren't coming off and Biden ain't making any gaffes.

Boston Globe's blog Political Intelligence (heh) had a rundown on the debate.

No clear winner, no clear loser and Palin's penchant for "gee whiz" type comments is getting annoying.  Also, Biden's closing rant that John McCain is "no maverick" went uncountered.

Finally, neither candidate spoke enough about cutting taxes.

V.P. Debate: Mud Or Jello Wrestling?

John Neffinger at The Huffington Post had this to say about the expected mud-wrestling contest this evening between Vice-Presidential candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin.

"If you're Joe Biden, are you going to just sit there and let her play you to a draw - or beat you? On the biggest stage Biden has ever been on, is he going to let himself get shown up by someone everybody knows is an idiot? Or does Biden get agitated, and start looking for opportunities to attack, to pin Palin down, to put her in her place? If Biden stops playing it safe, all bets are off. He might be brilliant, but things might also go horribly wrong."

I'm still getting over Biden describing President Franklin Delano Roosevelt addressing the American public on television.