13-term incumbent Democrat State Senator Suzi Oppenheimer wins again, soundly defeating Republican Elizabeth Feld 62-38 percent.
We were wrong.
Actually, the State Senate polls were wrong ... or they lied to News Copy (that assessment came firsthand tonight by a former member of the State Senate Majority, who admitted how much the GOP has lied about their polls in the past) ... or basically the State Senate believed their own flawed poll data.
This demands a blunt assessment.
For twenty years or longer, ever since former Republican Congressman Joseph J. DioGuardi lost to Democrat Nita Lowey in 1988, the Westchester County GOP has not wanted to believe that a full-fledged social conservative could win in this sleepy suburb.
... So they experimented, auditioning a long list of socially liberal candidates and abandonning almost every conservative Republican who ran. It became embarassing. Republicans lost most judicial seats, including the races for county executive and county clerk. They lost most of the County Board of Legislators. There are no Republicans among Westchester's State Legislative delegation.
Westchester has been a political killing fields for Republican men of any purported philosophy, particularly liberal men who bent themselves backwards to appease the growing voter registration of Democrats.
... Enter Elizabeth Feld, former Reagan Republican turned Independent turned DINO (Democrat In Name Only) turned Republican again, winning in the liberal village of Larchmont. She up-ended the old guard of Republicans and seemed primed to conquer all political partisans without much difficulty.
Add her visible fiscal-conservative stand on capping school taxes at 4 percent and this seems to be a winning combination, right?
Add her stands on abortion, decidedly to the left of the Republican Party and more Democrat than Republican, and one would think she can't lose.
Think again.
Over 20 years ago, Mamaroneck Conservative chair Irving Scharf ran against Oppenheimer. Irving is gadfly-esque at times, a political enthusiast who is not from Hollywood central casting and whose conservativism is anathema in liberal lower Westchester.
With very little money and no star appeal, and certainly little of the media listening, Scharf garnered somewhere around 30 percent against Suzi.
Well ... a "pro-choice" woman with a liberal background, who should be attractive to liberal women throughout Westchester County -- that elusive demographic that chauvenist Republicans never have been able to capture -- just spent what will probably amount to $600,000 on barely 5-10 percent more than Irving.
... And that's pathetic.
There are no more excuses.
Republicans have to start running real Republican candidates in Westchester County. The State Senate Republicans after Tuesday night's trashing has to reassess what it takes to win in New York.
News Copy was wrong about the Feld-Oppenheimer race. Actually, we're shocked. We really believed that Elizabeth Feld would defeat Suzi Oppenheimer. Even the liberal The Journal News endorsed her.
The problem is that something else is on disconnect here in Westchester County, the highest-taxed county in the United States, and it's either getting re-connected by Tom Suozzi-type candidate among the Democrats in this suburban county (don't hold your breath) -- or some Republican smart enough to fully duplicate the Nassau County Executive's zeal for fiscal reform.
Not sure if Feld gets the blame here, as much as she did get trounced, since she threw all her heart and words into the school tax cap (Suozzi's brain-child, by the way).
Suozzi-like reform failed tonight in Westchester County and the messenger was at least simpatico with a majority of the voters, so this wordsmith is at a loss what went wrong in Liz Feld's campaign.
Someone has to just figure it out and fix it, all over New York, or the Republicans are doomed.
Michael Ranzenhofer did beat Joe Mesi in Western New York but what price Golisano?
Sen. William Stachowski won, overcoming what Republicans thought was a safe margin over Dennis Delano.
The alpha grandma won, again!!! State Senator Suzi Oppenheimer crushed Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld.
Republicans in the State Senate spent $300,000 on Feld's candidacy and come up with 38 percent. Republicans have run candidates who only spent $3,000 who almost did as well as Feld, so what happened here?
The post mortem on Feld loss will be exasperating for Westchester Republican strategists -- who must now figure out how a pro-choice woman out of a liberal village failed to dent the Democrats.
Trunzo lost. Long Island's GOP elite should have seen that coming. Also, Democrat Senator Craig Johnson retained his seat by a wide margin.
Sen. Darrel Aubertine won.
Maltese lost and his loss was perhaps inevitable. Anyone honest about this incumbent's chances should have known better.
... And now Padavan, perhaps as inevitable. Did the State GOP see any of it coming -- or have they been on vacation this year? At least this race is still close. James Gennaro saw it coming.
With further GOP sources again vouching for the validity of a State Senate Campaign Committee poll that had shown Liz Feld within 15 percent of State Senator Suzi Oppenheimer-- with 24 percent undecided -- it's hard to say what poll is accurate.
The big reversal of fortune for State Senate Republicans with the newest Siena Poll has to be Democratic Sen. William Stackowski erasing a 13-percentage-point deficit last month and has taken a four-point lead against Republican Dennis Delano.
If that type of political cave-in happens with other races, Democrats might be at the gate to take monopolistic control of the entire State Legislature.
As for here in the sleepy suburbs, or sources insist that they had seen the poll on the race between Suzi Oppenheimer and Liz Feld. We have firm confirmation of the polling data. Admittedly, the prior leak had started to seem like someone was fudging of the numbers.
If there had been 24 percent undecided, the real question is when and how those undecideds broke for Oppenheimer -- if they ever did -- but two Siena polls in a row showing a rout by the alpha grandma is hard to dispute. Stackowski grabbed 17 points. Oppenheimer could have done the same with the undecideds in this predominantly liberal State Senate district.
But there's a more serious question that Republicans HAVE TO ask themselves, one that could impact future races in that suburban county.
What if the Republicans have been depending on flawed polling?
If Siena's methodology in the Feld race was flawed, it calls to question the outcome of all these races. The first Siena poll had a few upsets by Republicans that had people scratching their heads.
Republican Long Island State Senator Caesar Trunzo is losing to his challenger, Democrat Brian Foley, by 22 points, according to the latest Siena poll.
As for the Feld-Oppenheimer contest, 35 points (64-29) is vastly different from the previously leaked 10-15 point margin. It would mean Suzi Oppenheimer chomped away at the undecideds at a 5-1 margin.
So does this mean the GOP is up or down right now in some of these close races; including Republican Sen. Serphin Maltese, who after $2 million is trailing Democrat Joseph Addabbo -- and the Ranzenhofer-Mesi race?
In Westchester, Long Island, Western New York and throughout the heirarchy of the State GOP -- it's not time for the Republicans to lie to themselves. Some of these campaigns could be won or lost by the very slimmest of margins. If their poll data is flawed, they must adjust. If their consultants are wrong, they must stop re-hiring them. If the best that their political operatives can do is play the "Emperor's Clothes" syndrome, it's time to reject the hubris ...
... or maybe Larchmont's mayor will surprise us all with an upset, despite the usual suspects out of Albany and locally here in Westchester.
“When are you going to lower them?” came a question from the back row, followed by sighs and affirmations of “that’s right” by others seated nearby.
That response is typical of what candidates have been hearing on the campaign trail in Westchester, where taxes are among the highest in the country.
“Taxes are a growing burden, and the desire and demand is for government to find a way to alleviate that burden because people are at the end of their ropes,” State Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins, a first-term Democrat in the 35th District who is up for re-election, said a few days after the library event.
Her opponent, John Murtagh, a Republican who is a Yonkers City councilman, said, “I think government spending and taxes are the issues — most certainly, that’s all I hear about.”
Yet in the 37th, where Feld has probably been the most aggressive and visible proponent of a school tax cap, two Siena polls show no movement for the Republican.
Yonkers will be a different story, where middle-income homeowners rebel annually, and Greenburgh's many villages are host to some of heaviest taxed communities in Westchester -- ironically with their Town Supervisor Paul Feiner (a Democrat) leading the charge countywide to eliminate county government. The 35th also includes Republican-heavy Mount Pleasant, so Murtaugh might be the pleasant surprise for the GOP.
Unless Republicans can bare polling that shows Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld within 10-15 percent (perhaps a dishonest leak), incumbent Democrat State Senator Suzi Oppenheimer appears poised to waltz away with this race.
Two-race strategy or not, Feld was doing better when she was criticizing her own political party.
Retiring or not, the 12-term alpha grandma benefits from a liberal leaning base in Westchester.
On a “woman’s right to choose,” Ms. Oppenhiemer pointed to her endorsements from pro-choice groups, including WCLA, Planned Parenthood and NARAL. She noted that New York has the nation’s highest teen pregnancy rate and that she co-sponsored the Healthy Teen’s Act that replaces prior “abstinence only” education. The new bill offers funding for districts seeking to start comprehensive “sex ed” programs so “youngsters can make responsible choices when they have the knowledge of what’s entailed,” she said.
Ms. Feld said she supports a woman’s right to choose and would do “everything I had to do to protect and defend that right.” She said she favored allowing decisions on sex ed to be made at the local level. “I support the work of Planned Parenthood and I support people who want to make these decisions for themselves at home in the privacy of their family,” she said.
News Copy was there and noted how alike these two candidates were on the social issues.
So why isn't Liz Feld resonating in socially liberal Mamaroneck, Scarsdale and Chappaqua?
"As much as some will salivate at the prospect of Democrats winning a majority at the New York State Legislature it is important to recognize that Liz Feld maintains a more open and engaging demeanor with the public and the press. Liz Feld exemplifies the moral and ethical compass many speak of dismissively maintaining a solid footing on issues most relevant to the community."
But bloggers aren't moving mountains in New York politics ... yet.
Murtaugh is heavily favored in Yonkers, where he is a popular albeit combative city councilman, but Greenburgh is a sure thing for Democrats. The rest of that State Senate district includes Mount Pleasant, a true Republican stronghold, but Greenburgh's numbers tip it all in Stewart-Cousins' favor.
Nearly $600,000 thrown into two suburban State Senate campaigns -- and neither Republican may break 40 percent. More interesting could be Murtaugh -- an openly social-conservative Republican -- faring better than the socially liberal Feld.
That data could be persuasive in elections throughout the sleepy suburbs for years to come.
Feld’s spokesman William O’Reilly responded: “Are they sure they’re polling the right district? This is the 37th, home of the highest property taxes and lowest state school aid in America. Everyone we talk to is fed up and ready to make a change.”
New York is numb. The Empire State is in a political coma. This is autocratic stasis. They just don't care anymore. They're burnt out after nearly 35 years of lawmakers ignoring then Governor Hugh Carey's warning that "the days of wine and roses" are over!!!
Westchester is the highest taxed county in the United States -- and Oppenheimer's district has most of the higher taxed voters in the region.
... and $300 million wouldn't change people's minds this year.
New York State will be a rout for Barack Obama, for the Democrats and for the thieves across the state in either major party who rely on voter malaise to get elected.
The last poll by Siena had this race 61-24 for Oppenheimer.
Sources within Feld's own team of consultants had her polling only 10-15 points behind Oppenheimer a month ago.
So much for the consultants.
This is nothing new for the State Senate Campaign Committee, except it should be fairly noted that our source was not part of that group. Also, our sources in both parties had laid out in detail how this was never going to be a winnable race. Feld chose to run anyway, with the numbers against her, and the GOP majority chose to take a chance on her.
Perhaps this is a "two-race" strategy for Feld, as Westchester Democrats believe.
$300,000 is a lot of money. It's not the most money the State Senate Republicans have poured into a losing race. The GOP in Albany has spent a million on primaries where they would lose 3-1 -- and against far less funded candidates.
Oppenheimer rules the roost in a liberal State Senate district whose registration is overwhelmingly Democrat. But 63-29?
More thoughts on the Feld/Oppenheimer race in the 37th State Senate ...
This came from an older post off the Albany Times Union blog Capitol Confidential, courtesy of a constituent in Suzi Oppenheimer's State Senate District who rightfully asked how Liz Feld will be able to bite the hand that feeds her.
Fiscal reform is a Republican/Conservative issue. Of course, State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos could risk getting into a public debate with the only Republican out of Westchester County. It would turn Feld into a hero, a statewide name, and her ascendency would be even more rapid.
So it's likely that Liz Feld will get everything she wants from State Senate Republicans, who won't risk losing this seat -- and won't risk making the Larchmont native bigger than them.
New Siena Poll Coming
Politics on the Hudson posted that the results Siena's second State Senate poll will be released Thursday.
This is the same poll that found Suzi Oppenheimer trouncing Liz Feld 61-24 percent. News Copy's sources confirmed that Feld was only 10-15 points behind the alpha grandma a few weeks ago. Also, every reliable source among Republicans has admitted that the Oppenheimer district is the "impossible dream" and overwhelmingly tipped for a Democrat.
In theory, this would have been Suzi's race if she had taken a year-long vacation. And Feld knows that, as does all her operatives and ever key Republican in Albany. Finally, it's been an open secret among Democrats that some sort of deal was hatched to replace Suzi with another Democrat before petitions were finalized or after Election Day.
Yeah ... Oppenheimer might be running to hand over the seat to George Latimer or Amy Paulin or someone else.
So this could be a "two-race" strategy for Ms. Feld, a preparation for the true contest in 2010.
Thursday's poll results in Westchester won't be 61-24 again. That's for sure. (Editor's Note: Oh boy, were we wrong ... 64-29)
Why is it that New York is the only state to push Medicaid costs onto its counties?
The state should fully fund its share of the Medicaid program. I would suggest, as I did in a second resolution that passed the county Legislature last week, that the fairer way to pay for health care for the indigent is for the state to spread the cost through the state income tax. Everyone should pay their fair share. My resolution called for an increase on the highest tax bracket — for those earning $1 million or more per year in taxable earnings. I think that is much fairer than expecting local property taxpayers to shoulder the cost of a state program.
Hughes noted that his idea would bring about a 50 percent reduction in the Schenectady County property tax levy.
Another tax.
Why not just reduce what Medicaid covers and address all its costs? Why not address the fraud -- estimated to be ten percent or more across the state?
Start with the salaries of Medicaid-related employees. 1199. The unions must tighten their belts too, certainly salaries freezes and perhaps across-the-board cuts in salaries/benefits. Of course, such talk in New York is anathema to the party line in Albany.
However, they supported Democrat William T. Stachowski in the 58th (well, sort of), who appears to be trailing behind Republican Dennis Delano. It was a backhanded endorsement.
The Buffalo News outlined ten criteria/issues:
Experience: Generally speaking, it is better to know how government works. Taxes: Lawmakers must resist intense pressure to raise taxes in the nation’s highest taxed state. Spending: All areas must be subject to potentially significant cuts. Member items: The practice system, which bolsters incumbents, has become too expensive. It needs to be ended. Unfunded mandates: Albany has to pay the costs if it is going to foist requirements on lower governments. Redistricting: Gerrymandered districts discourage competitive elections and prolong the state’s decline. The job must be done by an independent, nonpartisan committee. Budget process reform: Rank-and-file lawmakers need to be more involved in the budget process, which, itself requires more time. The State Comptroller should determine the amount of money available to be spent. Ethics reform: Legislators now investigate themselves. Authority needs to be given to an independent body. District issues/specific goals: This category allows candidates to show their knowledge of state and local needs.
It's a good overview of basic civics. Too bad Albany finds every possible way to do the opposite.
Western New York's State Senate races should be a more pronounced story once the Siena Poll is released Thursday.
$11.2 Million to be Mr. or Ms. Smith Going To Washington
The class in civics always skips the chapter on campaign fundraising.
Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell has spent $6.9 million on his challenge to first-term incumbent Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand -- who has spent $4.3 million.
That's $11.2 million, the most expensive Congressional race in the nation.
"That's $11.2 million for a race where the largest media market is Albany and where most parts of the 10-county congressional district are rural communities stretching from Dutchess County to Saranac Lake. In no other race in the country have candidates raised more money or spent more, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign contributions."
One wonders what the going rate for a Congressional seat in Westchester County must be.
The most spent for the Congressional seat presently held by 14-term incumbent Nita Lowey was $1.6 million by the fellow she defeated in 1988, former two-term Republican Congressman Joe DoGuardi.
The most spent for Westchester County Executive was probably $3 million or more by Republican Tedd Dunn in 1997, who was defeated by Democrat Andy Spano -- who is still there (and who expects a serious challenge next year by Republicans).
But still count on counties using the economy as an excuse to raise your property taxes.
"The biggest factor, according to an analysis by Gannett News Service, appears to be an increase in tax revenue from the spike in gas prices over the summer. Counties get about roughly 4 percent on the sale of a gallon of gas; the state caps its portion of sales tax on gas at $2 per gallon."
They made their as tax revenue likely by July, the latest, and the rest has been municipal gravy.
"If things remain flat for the fourth quarter, we'll still be slightly ahead for the year, but we don't know what is going to happen in the fourth quarter," said Susan Tolchin, spokeswoman for Westchester County, which has had a 3 percent growth in sales taxes this year -- up about 2 percent from projections.
Translation: "Flat" means there will be no loss in revenue -- yet watch as the argument is made for next year's budget to increase property taxes to compensate for a supposed loss in revenue.
"Ford To City: Drop Dead" is the first thought that comes to mind.
The second thought concerns the U.S. Constitution, which theoretically doesn't provide for such outright bailouts of the states ... as if that ever stopped Congress from spending more of our tax dollars.
Finally, imagine the governors waiting in line for a federal handout?
Considering that the legislative district covers the heart of Gannett's daily readership across New York City's northern suburban, one might argue that this is THE endorsement to get in Westchester County.
"Feld promises energetic bipartisanship, putting taxpayers first and speaking out whenever she can at Albany's inertia. We think she can be. If Feld wins, however, she will have to prove her independent mettle. The state GOP has contributed significant dollars to push her candidacy over the line."
Just like that liberal newspaper to endorse someone and then remind the voters that her party is the evil empire.
Down 61-24 less than a month ago in a Siena poll, a poll disputed has contradicting State Senate GOP polls showing Feld with 10-15 point, this is sizing up to be a true nail-biter.
The Journal News finally articulated about Suzi Oppenheimer the obvious:
"Oppenheimer, even after 24 years of service, much of it behind the scenes, insists that her minority status in the Senate has precluded her from being more of a force in reforming Albany, generating more tax relief, leading on more significant legislation. We don't buy it. With that length of tenure under her belt and being a clear personal favorite among voters - some of her elections haven't even been contested - Oppenheimer should have long ago carved out a leadership role for herself in the Westchester-Putnam-Rockland delegation, regardless of her minority status. Instead, what New Yorkers get from her is a "what-can-you-do?" shrug."
The "alpha grandma" has a well-worn act but a well-cultivated following.
Gannett's words will rouse Oppenheimer's base -- and there's plenty left of it.
To Feld's credit, she hasn't been shy about criticizing Republicans.
"It's not just one party that got us into this mess.'' Indeed. Democrats in the Assembly, in concert with Senate Republicans, have managed to create stasis, in which each house passes bills that the other rejects, and major reforms and protections remain unaddressed year after year.
Her ascendency has deconstructed a Republican heirarchy in her village, for example, but she's taken nearly $300,000 from the State Senate Campaign Committee.
This bunch has an annoying habit of sabotaging their own candidates. Like State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos making deals with the teachers union, while simultaneously running Feld as a reformer for a school tax cap. Thanks guys ... with friends like that in Albany, who needs enemies?
The Journal News endorsement is a coup of sorts for Feld, and vindication. At stake could be control of the State Senate Majority, as much as polling over the past month indicated the GOP has that under control. More important, it's good to see a high-energy candidate with new ideas and an independent approach supported by the local daily newspaper.
50 or 30 years ago, even 20 years ago, such an endorsement would have helped to win an election. It still might, except Westchester residents -- predominantly Manhattan commuters -- are reading The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Post and New York Daily News. They're news junkies watching CNN, MSNBC and FOX News.
Feld and Oppenheimer duke it out tonight on Westchester's Cablevision News 12, a debate that likely be be upstaged by Obama's infomercial ...
A Siena College poll last month highlighted six races, showing two downstate Republicans — Sens. Serphin Maltese and Caesar Trunzo — in tight races. Two newly elected Democrats senators — Long Island Sen. Craig Johnson and North Country Sen. Darrel Aubertine — who won their seats in special elections had significant leads.
Republican Sen. Joseph Robach, who represents most of Rochester and its major suburbs of Greece and Brighton, held an 11-point lead over Democratic challenger Richard Dollinger, who held the seat before Robach captured it in 2002.
The tightest race in Upstate, the poll showed, was the battle between Democrat Joe Mesi and Republican Michael Ranzenhofer. They are vying for an open seat that stretches across Erie and Genesee counties and being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Mary Lou Rath.
In Westchester County, Republicans have fielded visible challenges to State Senators Andrea Stewart Cousins and Suzi Oppenheimer -- and have spent at least $300,000 on Liz Feld's race against Oppenheimer to what appears to no avail in the liberal suburbs. Cousin's challenger John Murtaugh is forecasted to do worse.
The Senate Republican Campaign Committee spent more than $1.6 million in September, according to filings. $314,465 went to Maltese, followed by $183,454 for candidate John Murtagh.
Lot of money. Most of the dollars just leave the GOP doggy paddling.
One reversal of fortune for Democrats has so far come with Sen. Bill Stachowski, who seemed like a sure thing, but recent polls show him trailing Republican Dennis Delano by double digits.
“Upstate New York is a very smart place to play,” said Erick C. Mullen, a Democratic consultant and veteran of races in the area. “You can get so much more purchase with your money. It is a ripe place for an upbeat campaign to go.”
It used to be that political consultants could predict the outcome of a national election from Erie County. The NY Times pjointed out that it is the economy the has once again turned it into New York's tipping point.
Western New York’s political volatility is fueled by a mix of factors, some of them long in the making and others unexpected. Financial uncertainty is perhaps the biggest factor in the region, which is already one of the most economically troubled parts of the state and stands to be hurt disproportionately by New York’s fiscal crisis, posing difficulties for incumbents of both parties.
“The kindling is an electorate in western New York that is profoundly pessimistic,” said Bruce N. Gyory, a political consultant and former lobbyist who has advised Republicans and Democrats. “The match is an economy that, while in recession, seems to carry the political impact of a depression.”
Meanwhile, that kindling hasn't sparked a fire in New York City's northern suburbs -- where a political malaise prevails.
News Copy attended the last debate between "Mrs. Oppenheimer" and "Mayor Feld" (that's how the candidates wanted the League of Women Voters to address them).
Oppenheimer blamed the Republicans. Feld, at times, tried to channel being a Democrat or "bi-partisan" in response to changing Albany. Though Feld's fiscal conservative message made sense (and Oppenheimer's finger pointing didn't), the reality is that Westchester probably won't "get it" until that county government is brought to its political knees by a humbling municipal default.
Next year? Sen. Oppenheimer quoted that there could be a $7 billion shortfall.
Paterson will threaten cuts to education and healthcare, to force a reaction from the special interest lobbies.
“The governor, like the Legislature, understands that education is the way we really have the best chance of reigniting the economy,” said Richard Iannuzzi, president of the New York State United Teachers. “If you decimate education, you drive the economy in the wrong direction.”
It's a political minefield that neither side will cross, at least before Election Day.
Listening to the debates of State lawmakers, it's clear that Democrats will go after the prisons and tax credits to business (along with economic development grants). Republicans will want across-the-board five percent cuts -- but both sides are dancing with the teachers union and fearful of a revolt by PTA moms and dads.
There's a scandal too, an income tax scandal and a scandal too close to Governor Paterson with a trusted aide -- now finally resigning -- who was identified as "the whole operation" for New York's executive branch.
Other Paterson administration insiders described the governor as "agonizing" over the decision to force out O'Byrne, who was not only his top aide but also a good friend.
Making matters even harder was the lack of an heir apparent.
An official close to Paterson said he understood the need to have O'Byrne resign, but said finding a replacement could be difficult.
"The scary thing about this is that O'Byrne has been the whole operation for Paterson," the official said.
The State Legislature re-convenes for an emergency session November 18th.
Warm fuzzies on the environment go a long way in Westchester but the important issues remain on "Main Street" -- so News Copy views this latest round of endorsements in the 37th State Senate District race as a more accurate barometer of both candidates.
Feld looks good, though both candidates seemed out of place in the forum. Oppenheimer does her best to upstage and district attention. The seemingly absentminded grandma act has been a staple of Suzi's campaigns for over 20 years. She's shrewd as a fox, plays seemingly disorganized and then manages to score points with her usual brand of pithy comments.
Classic fiscally liberal Democrat against a classic fiscally conservative Republican. Both women moderate to liberal on social issues. Both locally-rooted, except News Copy would love to see the 25 years of press releases from Suzi Oppenheimer going after the liberal spenders in her own party.
Suzi Oppenheimer has signed off to all the spending in Albany that leaves New York State so debt-laden -- but she will likely be re-elected on the "warm fuzzies" rather than the dollar issues affecting property owners throughout Westchester County.
The problem for Feld has been that Republicans are running scared from the PTA crowds and their recent dance with unions imperils the one clear issue Feld had in this election. Bloomberg's obsession with a third term hasn't helped either.
Suzi Oppenheimer's opponent has taken a tactical stand against cuts in school aid in this letter to the editor -- but is it enough?
Westchester is the home of the most fervent PTA parents in New York State. Feld's aggressive support of a 4 percent school tax cap probably cost her dearly in sleepy suburban bastions where the moms and dads protect the school budget.
Yes ... Westchester is also the highest taxed county in the nation.
It doesn't change how people feel about the schools.
In a year where State Senate Republicans dropped nearly $300,000 into Feld's candidacy, the word-of-mouth on this contest againt a 12-term incumbent Democrat is decidedly skeptical throughout the Hudson Valley.
Feld had the issue. The voters have other ideas, apparently, but 61-24?
Oppenheimer called Republicans the "status quo" -- the governor is a Democrat, the Assembly is controlled by Democrats, Westchester County is predominately ruled by Democrats.
And the GOP is the status quo?
Now that's unsettling, that Oppenheimer gets away with it. But Albany's Republicans just had an affair with the teachers unions, so Suzi will get away with it. And Mayor Bloomberg, who happily endorsed Feld, has sabotaged his own credibility by hosting an autocratic gauntlet against term limits.
It's likely a lot closer than 61-24 -- and Feld can't be counted out -- but the State Senate Majority has once again scuttled another winnable race with hubris.
The prospect of deal between Senate Republicans and the teachers’ union is likely. In an interview, NYSUT President Richard Iannuzzi said he’s “pretty confident” that the board will vote to endorse the 30 Republican senators who were not endorsed in August (because they voted for the property tax cap). “Before we went to the board, we did reach out to the Executive Committee. They were overwhelmingly in favor of moving forward and opening up endorsements to the 30 Republican Senators.”
In Oppenheimer's district, where the protection of school district funding remains near-sacred (and we don't exagerate in the least), one could imagine a Republican wanting the support of NYSUT.
Ironically, Westchester is documented statistically the most property/school tax-burdened county in the free world ... nationwide.
BUT, does accepting any public union endorsement help a candidate where the tax revolts are brewing?
Not yet, apparently, and some State legislative Republicans want that political golden goose as aggressively as many liberal Democrats.
The following campaign ads for the 37th State Senate District race are being run on the Larchmont Gazette website.
Neither of these State Senate candidates are behaving like this election is over but Liz Feld's challenge must feel like David vs. Goliath.
61-24 against a seasoned incumbent, her biggest endorsement (Michael Bloomberg) scuttled by his own ambition to repeal term limits and now she's held hostage by the suburban angst against the "Republican" economy.
And, yes, it doesn't help that many PTA moms don't want a 4 percent school tax cap.
Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld was dealt another setback today when a local grass-roots organization in her own village launched a website supporting her opponent 12-term incumbent Democrat Suzi Oppenheimer.
... And in the coming days, more dire economic news out of Albany could leave the State Legislature's know-it-alls scrambling. News Copy stands behind its earlier assessment of Liz Feld.
"Is it possible there's a little more fluidity in this race than we have come to think?"
Well ... is it?
Volatility seeds some unlikely tipping points.
By the way, the accuracy of that infamous Siena Poll that had challenger Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld felled by alpha-grandma Suzi Oppenheimer in New Yorks 37th State Senate District is being debunked.
Sources close to Feld's race aren't going on the record but News Copy has learned Feld had been polled anywhere between 13-20 percent behind the 25-year incumbent Democrat, not the 37 point margin Siena measured.
That's more plausible -- and it leaves Feld within striking distance -- especially with the money she's spending on television commercials highlighting Oppenheimer's failure to deliver local school aid.
Yesterday's ad by Liz Feld, before "the poll" ... courtesy of Politics On The Hudson:
Counter-intuitive on the school funding debacle. Turns the attention away from the school tax cap's negatives with PTA moms -- and just blames the Democrats.
Those "gosh-darn" tax and spend Democrats. Meanwhile, Feld had single digits on some issues and demographic areas.
"... These numbers are completely out of line with our information about the race,” said spokesman William O’Reilly. “Any 25-year incumbent whose constituents pay the highest taxes in America and get the least school funding in return is running against time. ”
What's the real story?
This one hits close to home. Geographically-speaking, News Copy is only a frisbee throw away from the Scarsdale border -- and Oppenheimer was no stranger to this reporter's microphone. Feld's campaign could bare their own poll data, upstaging Siena, but that could inspire more support for the alpha-grandma.
Obama's hot, for now, with the voter-angst of those both affected by the economic dip and those simultaneously against the Bush bailout palpable in the middle to upper income section of Westchester County.
So Liz Feld is shackled to the same anchor tugging at John McCain, precariously so in sections of Scarsdale, Chappaqua and Feld's own backyard of Mamaroneck/Larchmont. The school district lobbying within these towns can be fierce -- and Feld is the most focused advocate for the school tax cap.
Whether the poll is flawed or not, her advocacy for some sensible fiscal reform might be the very reason she's trailing.
Republicans are apparently holding their own in key races, according to the same Siena poll that tried to be an obiturary for Republican challenger Liz Feld (News Copy will have more to say on that poll later on).
We don't believe Feld is dead either, by the way, though the suburban vote outside New York City is extremely volatile these days with Wall Street's woes so close to home. If one is to take Siena's methodology seriously, three of the four key races being tracked show a Republican edge at what might be the State GOP's darkest hour.
The Larchmont Mayor is well-funded, well-liked, media-smart, a proven winner in liberal areas and a vocal advocate of lower taxes.
... And the alpha-grandma is wiping the floor with her in this Siena poll.
It could mean the school tax cap vote has not resonated as well with voters as many conservative reformers expected, at least not in suburban Westchester County.
"Liz Feld is a hands-on mayor who delivers for her constituents. As a proven leader who puts aside politics to get results ..."
Bloomberg spoke as a non-partisan, which works in this contest, and it safely applies to Feld. Feld is running against constituent-oriented alpha-grandma whose base of voters has been electing Democrats since Ronald Reagan's first term. Republicans do better in Staten Island than most of Westchester. It could be argued that the Republican Party is the lead weight in parts of this State Senate District.
Meanwhile, the State Senate Republican Majority has been on the ropes; with possible losses of seats expected on Long Island and Queens. Feld is not the only Republican running for the State Senate in Westchester but Oppenheimer's seat is competitive; Feld is a woman. She comes to the table with money. She's a populist and she's a winner already in a predominately liberal community.
This is a high energy independent with Reagan roots. She's driven the old guards nuts with that independent streak. And that's good.
Sadly, this suburban region is plagued by a political correctness that has many Republicans semi-comatose. Feld is liberal on some of the social issues but she's been complimentary to Conservatives on the pocketbook issues. She's carrying their fiscal banner effectively, particularly on a school tax cap initiative that could result in a backlash by PTA moms around the school district -- depending on how aggressively the teachers' union gets involved in this election.
Enter Bloomberg, who knows this political territory well, and his endorsement helps her. If the unions bite, perhaps Mayor Mike bites back for Feld as he has so successfully in New York City?
In a State Senate district that includes some of the more liberal towns in the free world, Republicans haven't been able to get arrested against many-time incumbent State Senator Suzi Oppenheimer since the early 1980s. Oppenheimer has been a smiley-face rubber stamp for the Democrats for years. She plays the happy grandmother part well -- and it works -- but Oppenheimer is facing a true challenge for the first time in her political life. Oppenheimer's advantage, rightfully, has been an immensely successful approach with constituent services but she's older now and was sharply criticized for missing a tax cap vote.
And Feld's just plain better than "Suzi" when it comes to the people stuff.
This is going to be THE race to watch in New York State over the next month. At stake could be GOP control of the State Senate. The numbers are against Feld but they were against her in Larchmont when she ran for Mayor -- and she still won -- probably more on force of personality and an alpha/uber intangible quality that shouldn't be missed.
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