USA Today reported on a Siena Poll that found a majority of New Yorkers so ashamed by the latest scandals at the state Capitol that they are embarrassed to call themselves New Yorkers.
The poll found that seventy percent of voters agreed that New York has never been more dysfunctional, and by a 54% to 41% margin, voters also say that what's going on in Albany makes them "embarrassed" to call themselves New Yorkers.
But 71% would rather see David Paterson remain as governor than see him impeached by the State legislature.
This might be a gestalt moment for the Empire State. Strategically and psychologically, perhaps campaigns and candidates should prepare themselves for an election cycle where voters don't want the usual scandal-ridden dirty laundry hanging around on the front page.
Also, with national statistics showing a drastic increase in applications for unemployment, what may also be unfolding here is a natural need for people to see some stability.
The issue here is chaos, too much of it.
In our line of work, political spinmasters usually thrive on this nonsense -- but methinks we're headed for a period of caution. This doesn't put down the tea parties or THAT restless. It's just a sense that politicians won't be tolerated if they resort to mud-slinging.
The problem is that New York State is about to get worse; ethically with its elected officials (and appointed officials) along with painful fiscal shortfalls that could have school districts up in arms any day now.
The latter is the measurable crisis. It's being felt already in every school district across New York. It is about to get much worse.
Tipping point? Breaking point? More like an earthquake with bigger aftershocks.
Paterson staying as governor?
The State Legislature is already negotiating with Richard Ravitch -- or at least they're begging for him. Why not? He already gave us the MTA Payroll Tax.
The Siena Poll released today also found that a majority of New York believe Andrew Cuomo will conduct a fair and impartial investigation of the Governor and his staff, although two-thirds of voters would prefer to see the investigation conducted by an independent, outside prosecutor.
The OC Register noted how Field pollsters discovered another obvious fact:
Nearly two-thirds of registered voters (63 percent) "don't feel the state government responds to the needs of people like them."
Sound familiar?
"If government quit draining economic life blood in excess taxes and quit meddling in the private sector's affairs, economic recovery would be sooner and smoother. Instead, even in the face of public opposition, government arrogantly looks for creative new ways to part Californians from their money and for presumptuous schemes to show businesses how to do business."
Jerry Brown is in a hard-to-categorize demographic that just happens to be rebellious enough of the current political establishment to soften what otherwise would be a liberal anchor to the bottom of a deep blue political sea.
"Some people say that if you've been around the process, you can't handle the job, that we need to go out and find an outsider who knows virtually nothing about state government," said Brown, who has also been California secretary of state and Oakland mayor. "Well, we tried that, and it doesn't work. We found out that not knowing is not good."
The obvious play on voters' frustration with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has diminishing returns.
In a statement, she contrasted her private-sector experience with Brown's "40-year career in politics which has resulted in a trail of failed experiments, undelivered promises, big government spending and higher taxes."
"Conservatives everywhere were dispirited by the Bush administration; California conservatives are doubly demoralized as the failed Schwarzenegger experiment expires."
The right appears to be winning, though there also seems to be an uber-tech executive tug-of-war for media attention between Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.
George Will explained how the independent vote may give longshot DeVore (6%) the nomination.
"California's electorate is about 45 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, 20 percent "decline to state" and about 5 percent affiliated with minor parties. The June primary will be open to Republicans and "decline to states," but probably about 15 percent of those unaffiliated voters who will participate in the primary will request Republican ballots. So, incandescent conservatives among California's 5.2 million Republicans are apt to determine the Senate nominee. The most conservative candidate is DeVore, 47, an aerospace executive and lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve."
Not too different from New York's Conservative and independent vote, without the Conservative line.
How many in New York would vote in a statewide Republican primary, if allowed?
Given California's fiscal debacle, the liberal dreaming is over and conservatives (with independents) are perhaps about to seize that day.
Imagine if that happened in New York?
Actually, it almost did when Herb London received nearly a quarter of the vote for governor 1990 and almost sent the Republican Party to third-party status. It was against a liberal governor, Mario Cuomo, during the shockwave of the Bush tax increases and New York's lowly economics gave heart to some independent alternative.
It happened in 1970 too with Jim Buckley's run for U.S. Senate and nearly happened last year in the 23rd Congressional with Doug Hoffman.
Conservatives weren't dreaming but Dede Scozzafava sure was ...
Democrats are betting on a public outcry against Anthem Blue Cross raising insurance rates 40% to rouse public sentiment in favor of revisiting the healthcare bill.
None of the available polls indicate any support for the Democrats' Health Care Plan, the closest being an ABC News/Washington Post poll at 49-46% against the public plan -- in a poll that was favorable to Republicans taking back the House in midterm elections.
As for the rest of CPAC's Presidential Straw Pall, Sarah Palin only managed 7%. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, a social liberal, wasn't far behind with 6%. Indiana Congressman Mike Pence, 5%. Newt Gingrich only 4%. Mike Huckabee, a disappointing 4%. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (what's up in Indiana?), Rick Santorum and South Dakota Senator John Thune were tied with 2%. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (who used to fare well in such straw polls) trailed the pack with 1%.
Considering that Other (5%) and Undecided (6%) combined for 11 percent, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were the only two names that looked remotely competitive among conservatives.
All 50 states, including DC, were represented in the voting. 48 percent were students, 54% between 18-25.
On fiscal issues, the TOP PRIORITY of Republicans in Congress was polled to be: cutting federal spending at 58%, reducing the federal debt at 23% and cutting federal taxes at 15%.
Rasmussen noted that Cuomo had a 28-point lead in mid-November. In late September, Cuomo led Lazio 65% to 26%. It has been worse.
"While Lazio is faring better against both his Democratic opponents, it is unclear if he is benefiting from the backlash against the national health care plan that seems to be helping many other GOP candidates in other parts of the country."
The schools, Rick.
In New York, talk about the schools.and school funding -- and property taxes, and the teachers union, and the mandates, and the State legislature ...
Yes, we need to embrace the "big tent" on social issues.
No, we need to maintain a strict litmus test to keep the Party socially conservative.
Pro-choicers can join the Party they just need to keep quiet on social issues.
That last alternative could be as rudely coined the "don't ask, don't tell" option on abortion, with nearly a quarter of those polled (20%) on Urban Elephants supporting an intolerable political muzzle on pro-abortion Republicans.
Madness.
Nearly 60% support supported this rhetorically deceptive "big tent" option and only 21% opposed a strict litmus test on social conservatives.
Why can't these knuckleheads accept calling each other liberals and get over it -- rather than pretending to be conservative?
Only 60 have voted so far at http://www.urbanelephants.com. It's primarily a five borough crowd on Urban Elephants and its own litmus test does not always resemble the mainstream Republican Party.
What started the feuding was an open discussion on Nan Hayworth in the mid-Hudson Valley's 19th Congressional District -- though not just over abortion or the 19th. Republicans have felt like orphans under Bloomberg and there are measurable concerns that they will get even less attention in 2010.
Meanwhile, Urban Elephants columnist Raquel Okyay identified a healthcare PAC, the Americican Medical Group Association (AMGA) that involves her husband Dr. Scott Hayworth and many donors from his Mount Kisco based medicial facility.
There is not much unusual about this PAC, except that is giving 81% of its monies to Democrats. At least one official from the NRCC described such a PAC and such distribution of PAC dollars to the political party controlling Congress as "pretty normal" (it does seem pretty normal for D.C., actually).
Okyay came to her own conclusions.
"... It’s easy to make the assumption that husband Hayworth is more than just supportive of abortion rights but actively works to defend it by raising money to fund pro-abortion candidates – not very different from a Planned Parenthood PAC – and by association links candidate Hayworth with the powerful abortion lobby."
AMGA is based in the state of Washington, with donors who primarily come from New York, who either work for Hayworth's Mount Kisco Medical Group or practice comparable medicine in the tri-state area (including some of Hayworth's inidvidual donors).
Hayworth's husband defended himself last night.
"I am indeed the CEO of the Mount Kisco Medical Group (MKMG). I don’t perform abortions. I have in my years as an OB-GYN delivered more than 2,000 babies. MKMG is not an abortion clinic."
The list of Democrats receiving money from this PAC includes Nita Lowey, Chuck Schumer, Rahm Emanuel, Patty Murray and many other liberal healthcare advocates to make the American Medical Group Association seem like Obama-lite.
Hayworth claimed no control over the PAC.
"While I am honored to be involved with the American Medical Group Association, (AMGA) I do not sit on the PAC Board, which is a separate entity. I have no control over whom the PAC chooses to support. I am not in the business of raising money to support ‘pro-abortion’ candidates."
But as the NRCC diplomatically explained, the whole idea of such a PAC is to influence the Democrats (the party in control) -- particularly powerful liberal Democrats -- and Hayworth's many employees and associates signed on without much difficulty.
While it may not be a purely pro-abortion PAC, a more serious issue might be what healthcare policies have been supported and opposed by AMGA -- particularly in a year where patients and doctors have been thrown about like chess pieces by Democrats and Republicans alike.
It's an old story and an old picture but 2010's political battle in New York might be more about who can sustain the least negatives.
Both major parties are dragging around scandals, waiting for other corrupt shoes to drop.
The next round of polling on the New York State Legislature should provide Republicans and Democrats with a schematic on how to survive this year's elections.
If the three suburban special election victories by Republicans early this week were any indication of the voter pulse, Democrats are in serious trouble.
Only 17% of New Yorkers approved of the way the State legislature had been handling its job in December of last year!!!
How much worse does it get for the usual suspects in Albany, even as some face indictments, resign or retire?
And how does Sheldon Silver seem to slip away into Albany's darkness every year without any loss in power?
Democrats might almost benefit from pulling a coup against him!!!
Quinnipiac reported that 60% of of New York voters believed that the corruption conviction of former New York State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno was “Albany business as usual,” and not “an exception to the way Albany does business.”
The “business as usual” sentiment ranged from 53-32% among Democrats to 66-19% among Republicans.
66-19%
Worse numbers for Republicans (or so it seemed). This may explain why liberal strategists have been so cock sure that they could still win in Erie, Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk and Ulster counties.
76-19% said their state government is "dysfunctional" and 28 percent blamed legislative Democrats, while 21% blamed Republicans and 17% blamed Gov. David Paterson.
With voters disapproving 72-17% on the job the State Legislature have been doing, what are the Republicans waiting for? Then again, 46% of voters said their own state senator should be voted out of office in 2010 in a general housekeeping, while 41% say their state senator deserves reelection.
Republicans should be wary that their own incumbents aren't bitten in the ass.
Sadly, the former New York State Senate Majority may still have the biggest negatives tagged on their backs.
As for the Democrats, those who don't change and adapt either won't survive -- or will only be re-elected because the G.O.P. couldn't raise the dollars to field candidates against them.
Breaking out the ominous 17 percent approval, Republicans actually fared worse (9%) than Democrats (24%) -- but this was in the wake of Bruno's legal troubles.
More important, registration in New York is so overwhelmingly Democrat that only 24% approval has to be viewed by political insiders as abject failure only a year after Barack Obama's landslide victory.
Following Eliiot Spitzer's "landslide in 2006, the State legislature held double the approval rating at 34% by April of 2007 (and only 43 percent disappoval) -- but dipped to 17 percent soon after with 72 percent of New York disapproving of the job they were doing.
As goes David Paterson, so goes the rest of his party?
These were the Bush tax cuts or lighter recycled tax cuts by Democrats that accompanied massive spending last year.
"In general, do you think the Obama Administration has increased taxes for most Americans, decreased taxes for most Americans or have they kept taxes the same for most Americans?"
• 24 percent of respondents said they INCREASED taxes. • 53 percent said they kept taxes the same • 12 percent said taxes were decreased.
CBS noted that of those people who support the grassroots, "Tea Party" movement, only 2 percent thought taxes had been decreased, 46 percent said taxes are the same, and a whopping 44 percent said they believe taxes have gone up.
"Those answers must frustrate the president who has highlighted its tax cuts for the middle class in almost every speech."
Perhaps if Obama hadn't spent an entire election tearing down President George Bush, he could get away with making believe he is responsible for middle-class tax relief.
CBS analyzed that Obama's proposed tax cuts were small and that the talk of tax increases has people developing amnesia.
"While the majority of the tax cuts, passed last February, affected 95 percent of working families, when they took affect by April of 2009, the monetary value was not too large -- most families saw about $70 more in take home pay every month. Individual workers saw about $13 more a week."
Finally, it has been the economy taxing people's minds all year and February, 2009 was more notoriously known for its expansion of TARP-like monies to the public sector as a supposed bailout.
ABC News and The Washington Post give President Obama some breathing room at 51%, as does Gallup and Ipsos/McClatchey at 50%, but the rest throw Obama under the bus.
Rasmussen had Obama at 48% the night Scott Brown won. Most pollsters had the President of the United States between 48-50 percent that week, so there is no real change yet following the Massachusetts debacle.
There hasn't been any further damage either -- or so it seems.
"Separate polling shows voters are more evenly divided as to which party to trust more on economic issues this month: 46% trust Republicans more, while 42% trust Democrats."
That should be no news to partisans (unless you're a Republican in denial) but a growing concern to Republicans or party-backed candidates facing a primary.
"The economy has remained the top issue among voters for over two years, with the exception of last September, when more voters viewed government ethics and corruption as very important. This month, 72% see the issue of ethics as very important, down seven points from December and the lowest level measured since October 2008. Voters are also unsure which party to trust on the issue of ethics, with 37% undecided."
The ethics question could haunt New York, in the wake of a scandal-plagued state capitol that has watched a governor and comptroller resign over the past three years without seeming very shaken. Though it seemed Republicans had their own political bruises to heal over State Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's legal troubles, Democrats face a potentially devastating casino bidding scandal that could drag down both Governor Paterson and State Senate President Malcolm Smith.
Ironically, New York State only has one Congressional District (District 1 on the eastern tip of Long Island) presently identified by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) as competitive.
Quinnipiac's poll last December showed numbers so low for New York State lawmakers, approval ratings in the teens for the State legislature, that it's a mystery why Republicans aren't fielding more candidates -- or why Republicans who know better are targeting so few Congresional seats across the Empire State.
"Obama is radioactive in polls," said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign's internal numbers. "Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful.
Maybe we all should be singing to Barack Obama, "Please Come To Boston" ...
... Speaking of the polls.
Rasmussen Reports survey shows that 49% of likely voters nationwide want Brown to win, while 34% are cheering on Coakley. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided.
More thoughts on the Feld/Oppenheimer race in the 37th State Senate ...
This came from an older post off the Albany Times Union blog Capitol Confidential, courtesy of a constituent in Suzi Oppenheimer's State Senate District who rightfully asked how Liz Feld will be able to bite the hand that feeds her.
Fiscal reform is a Republican/Conservative issue. Of course, State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos could risk getting into a public debate with the only Republican out of Westchester County. It would turn Feld into a hero, a statewide name, and her ascendency would be even more rapid.
So it's likely that Liz Feld will get everything she wants from State Senate Republicans, who won't risk losing this seat -- and won't risk making the Larchmont native bigger than them.
New Siena Poll Coming
Politics on the Hudson posted that the results Siena's second State Senate poll will be released Thursday.
This is the same poll that found Suzi Oppenheimer trouncing Liz Feld 61-24 percent. News Copy's sources confirmed that Feld was only 10-15 points behind the alpha grandma a few weeks ago. Also, every reliable source among Republicans has admitted that the Oppenheimer district is the "impossible dream" and overwhelmingly tipped for a Democrat.
In theory, this would have been Suzi's race if she had taken a year-long vacation. And Feld knows that, as does all her operatives and ever key Republican in Albany. Finally, it's been an open secret among Democrats that some sort of deal was hatched to replace Suzi with another Democrat before petitions were finalized or after Election Day.
Yeah ... Oppenheimer might be running to hand over the seat to George Latimer or Amy Paulin or someone else.
So this could be a "two-race" strategy for Ms. Feld, a preparation for the true contest in 2010.
Thursday's poll results in Westchester won't be 61-24 again. That's for sure. (Editor's Note: Oh boy, were we wrong ... 64-29)
Why is it that New York is the only state to push Medicaid costs onto its counties?
The state should fully fund its share of the Medicaid program. I would suggest, as I did in a second resolution that passed the county Legislature last week, that the fairer way to pay for health care for the indigent is for the state to spread the cost through the state income tax. Everyone should pay their fair share. My resolution called for an increase on the highest tax bracket — for those earning $1 million or more per year in taxable earnings. I think that is much fairer than expecting local property taxpayers to shoulder the cost of a state program.
Hughes noted that his idea would bring about a 50 percent reduction in the Schenectady County property tax levy.
Another tax.
Why not just reduce what Medicaid covers and address all its costs? Why not address the fraud -- estimated to be ten percent or more across the state?
Start with the salaries of Medicaid-related employees. 1199. The unions must tighten their belts too, certainly salaries freezes and perhaps across-the-board cuts in salaries/benefits. Of course, such talk in New York is anathema to the party line in Albany.
However, they supported Democrat William T. Stachowski in the 58th (well, sort of), who appears to be trailing behind Republican Dennis Delano. It was a backhanded endorsement.
The Buffalo News outlined ten criteria/issues:
Experience: Generally speaking, it is better to know how government works. Taxes: Lawmakers must resist intense pressure to raise taxes in the nation’s highest taxed state. Spending: All areas must be subject to potentially significant cuts. Member items: The practice system, which bolsters incumbents, has become too expensive. It needs to be ended. Unfunded mandates: Albany has to pay the costs if it is going to foist requirements on lower governments. Redistricting: Gerrymandered districts discourage competitive elections and prolong the state’s decline. The job must be done by an independent, nonpartisan committee. Budget process reform: Rank-and-file lawmakers need to be more involved in the budget process, which, itself requires more time. The State Comptroller should determine the amount of money available to be spent. Ethics reform: Legislators now investigate themselves. Authority needs to be given to an independent body. District issues/specific goals: This category allows candidates to show their knowledge of state and local needs.
It's a good overview of basic civics. Too bad Albany finds every possible way to do the opposite.
Western New York's State Senate races should be a more pronounced story once the Siena Poll is released Thursday.
$11.2 Million to be Mr. or Ms. Smith Going To Washington
The class in civics always skips the chapter on campaign fundraising.
Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell has spent $6.9 million on his challenge to first-term incumbent Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand -- who has spent $4.3 million.
That's $11.2 million, the most expensive Congressional race in the nation.
"That's $11.2 million for a race where the largest media market is Albany and where most parts of the 10-county congressional district are rural communities stretching from Dutchess County to Saranac Lake. In no other race in the country have candidates raised more money or spent more, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign contributions."
One wonders what the going rate for a Congressional seat in Westchester County must be.
The most spent for the Congressional seat presently held by 14-term incumbent Nita Lowey was $1.6 million by the fellow she defeated in 1988, former two-term Republican Congressman Joe DoGuardi.
The most spent for Westchester County Executive was probably $3 million or more by Republican Tedd Dunn in 1997, who was defeated by Democrat Andy Spano -- who is still there (and who expects a serious challenge next year by Republicans).
But still count on counties using the economy as an excuse to raise your property taxes.
"The biggest factor, according to an analysis by Gannett News Service, appears to be an increase in tax revenue from the spike in gas prices over the summer. Counties get about roughly 4 percent on the sale of a gallon of gas; the state caps its portion of sales tax on gas at $2 per gallon."
They made their as tax revenue likely by July, the latest, and the rest has been municipal gravy.
"If things remain flat for the fourth quarter, we'll still be slightly ahead for the year, but we don't know what is going to happen in the fourth quarter," said Susan Tolchin, spokeswoman for Westchester County, which has had a 3 percent growth in sales taxes this year -- up about 2 percent from projections.
Translation: "Flat" means there will be no loss in revenue -- yet watch as the argument is made for next year's budget to increase property taxes to compensate for a supposed loss in revenue.
"Ford To City: Drop Dead" is the first thought that comes to mind.
The second thought concerns the U.S. Constitution, which theoretically doesn't provide for such outright bailouts of the states ... as if that ever stopped Congress from spending more of our tax dollars.
Finally, imagine the governors waiting in line for a federal handout?
... Or, at least, as News Copy observed yesterday, getting closer.
"While we don’t know the impact of the last debate, the polling indicates that McCain has been able to close the gap with Obama markedly in the past week. Realclearpolitics.com lists six polls with a field date ending on 10-13. Their average gave Obama a margin of 8.3%. There are seven subsequent surveys with a field date ending on 10-16 and their average is an Obama lead of 5.1. The seven polls whose field date ended on the 16th only include one night of post debate polling (usually of a three night sample)."
Morris mused that the situation should clarify itself as the next few days of polling comes in.
News Copy is watching Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Missouri too. But, if there's an election to be won, our bet is that Pennsylvania could hold the biggest surprise.
Here's a news story out of Central PA that sketches out the remotely possible reversal of fortune for Obama, though most are feeling blue.
Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia shows what they characterized as "a very stable race" -- though the "underlying dynamic" strongly favors Barack Obama over John McCain.
Obama holds a narrow advantage ranging from two to five percentage points in four of the five states and is tied with McCain in North Carolina. Keep in mind that all five of these states were carried by George W. Bush in Election 2004.
Virginia could be the "big hurt" in this election (and it serves the RNC right if they didn't correct the mistakes they made in George Allen's fiasco of a U.S. Senate race).
FOX/Rasmussion has measured that Florida is tightening (as is Ohio).
In Florida, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 46%. That’s a bit closer than last week when Obama enjoyed a seven-percentage point lead. But, as recently as mid-September, McCain had been leading by five. This is the second straight week that Obama has been over the 50% mark in Florida. McCain has not topped 47% in any of the last three Florida Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls.
Cheer up, Karol. It might be closer than we all think.
Up 6.8 percent, an average of several polls but the range is wicked ... Gallup 2 percent ... 14 percent for CBS/New York Times. Anyone want to flip a coin?
There are so many polls that you wonder how these pollsters find fresh samples.
It lays out a picture of just how dire sentiments have remained nationwide in recent weeks.
8.9 percent believe the country is going in the right direction.
15.2 percent approve of the job Congress is doing.
President Bush has a 24.6 percent job approval rating (which I think is better than his father in 1992).
Democrats are still up in a Generic Congressional Survey of polls by 8.8 percent, with Republicans staggering in with a range of 34-45 percent in most polls.
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