News Copy, New York

Colin Powell Endorses Barack Obama For President

This is more an anti-endorsement of McCain than a true endorsement of Obama.

Also, Powell slams the GOP hard ... and perhaps that's a deserved slam on certain points ... but did he have to vent his spleen on the one Republican who isn't part of that wretched cabal?

Obama Losing Ground: More Than One-Third of Lead

Hillary Clinton's anti-guru is calling it close between McCain and Obama ...

... Or, at least, as News Copy observed yesterday, getting closer.

"While we don’t know the impact of the last debate, the polling indicates that McCain has been able to close the gap with Obama markedly in the past week. Realclearpolitics.com lists six polls with a field date ending on 10-13. Their average gave Obama a margin of 8.3%. There are seven subsequent surveys with a field date ending on 10-16 and their average is an Obama lead of 5.1. The seven polls whose field date ended on the 16th only include one night of post debate polling (usually of a three night sample)."

Morris mused that the situation should clarify itself as the next few days of polling comes in.

News Copy is watching Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Missouri too.  But, if there's an election to be won, our bet is that Pennsylvania could hold the biggest surprise.

Here's a news story out of Central PA that sketches out the remotely possible reversal of fortune for Obama,  though most are feeling blue.

SNL Parallel Universe: Here Comes Sarah Palin

How much trouble could Sarah get into?

Palin's headed to SNL:  New York Daily News

Josh Brolin of W. will appear this week too, the AP reported, calling it "a potentially provocative pairing."

Complicated.

Very Stable Horse Race: FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia shows what they characterized as "a very stable race" -- though the "underlying dynamic" strongly favors Barack Obama over John McCain.

Obama holds a narrow advantage ranging from two to five percentage points in four of the five states and is tied with McCain in North Carolina. Keep in mind that all five of these states were carried by George W. Bush in Election 2004.

Virginia could be the "big hurt" in this election (and it serves the RNC right if they didn't correct the mistakes they made in George Allen's fiasco of a U.S. Senate race).

FOX/Rasmussion has measured that Florida is tightening (as is Ohio).

In Florida, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 46%. That’s a bit closer than last week when Obama enjoyed a seven-percentage point lead. But, as recently as mid-September, McCain had been leading by five. This is the second straight week that Obama has been over the 50% mark in Florida. McCain has not topped 47% in any of the last three Florida Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls.

Cheer up, Karol.   It might be closer than we all think.

Obama Not Qualified: 45 Percent of Americans

Karol at Alarming News is sad that Republicans are losing ...

... To "a guy who 45 percent of voters don't believe is qualified to be president."

Polling Report.com

USA Election Polls.

McCain is up in Georgia, tied in North Dakota and it's still close in Florida.

But the electoral map/math is bad.

North Carolina is still close but Virginia looks as good for Obama as it looked as bad for George Allen in 2006.

Ohio is a dead heat.

Pennsylvania looks lost, by 15 points.

Missouri is still close, six points.

Even little Maine (4 electoral votes) that seemed possibly a lynchpin state has John McCain down five points.

New York?

20 points ahead for Obama and probably growing since there is no visible campaign for McCain in this state.

Al Smith Dinner: Obama and McCain Have Some Fun

The Atlantic reports that Obama had some fun tonight at the Al Smith Dinner in Manhattan.

"There was a point in my life when I started palling around with a pretty ugly crowd.... that's right... I've been a member of the United States Senate."

ABC News reported that McCain had his fun too.

"I can't shake that feeling that some people here are pulling for me," McCain said, turning to the far side of the stage. "I'm delighted to see you here tonight, Hillary."

The annual roast, which raised $3.9 million last night to help underprivileged children, is dedicated to the memory of former Democratic New York Gov. Al Smith, the first Catholic to win the presidential nomination of a major political party, who lost to Republican Herbert Hoover in 1928, 444 electoral votes to 87.

Jonathan Martin at Politico assessed that McCain ruled the night:

McCain began with a "major announcement."

"Yes, it's true, that this morning I dismissed my entire team of senior advisers," he said.  "All of their positions will now be held by a man named Joe the plumber."

In the self-deprecation department, McCain noted that Joe had just "recently signed a very lucrative contract with a wealthy couple to handle all the work on all seven of their houses."

And should the market improve, McCain predicted that at the "first sign of recovery [Obama] will suspend his campaign and fly immediately to Washington to address this crisis."

He also recalled that Oprah had called Obama "The One" -- something his own campaign also picked up.

"Being a friend and colleague of Barack, I just called him 'that one,'" McCain said. 

"He doesn't mind at all.  In fact, he even has a pet name for me -- 'George Bush.'"

The New York Daily News reported that the dinner surpassed its goal of $2.5 milion.

You-Tube had plenty of video from the dinner:

Polls: You Really Want To Know?

Real Clear Politics Poll Averages:

Obama.  Obama.  Obama.

Up 6.8 percent, an average of several polls but the range is wicked ... Gallup 2 percent ... 14 percent for CBS/New York Times.  Anyone want to flip a coin?

There are so many polls that you wonder how these pollsters find fresh samples.

It lays out a picture of just how dire sentiments have remained nationwide in recent weeks.

• 8.9 percent believe the country is going in the right direction.
• 15.2 percent approve of the job Congress is doing.
• President Bush has a 24.6 percent job approval rating (which I think is better than his father in 1992).
• Democrats are still up in a Generic Congressional Survey of polls by 8.8 percent, with Republicans staggering in with a range of 34-45 percent in most polls.

It's the Republican Party, stupid.

What Would William Buckley Have Done?

We haven't given up on John McCain but one of News Copy's earliest friends, Robert George of the New York Post thinks Obama won the last debate.

Robert also reported that William Buckley's son, Christopher, has endorsed Obama.

National Review then proceeded to throw Buckley under the bus, so he resigned.

This is a "What would William Buckley have done?" moment.

Supporting Vouchers: Does she or doesn't she?

From Governing magazine's 13th Floor comes a story about Washington, D.C.'s schools chancellor, who drew praise from both Obama and McCain last night -- except they couldn't agree on whether or not she supports vouchers.

OBAMA: I’ll just make a quick comment about vouchers in D.C. Senator McCain’s absolutely right: The D.C. school system is in terrible shape, and it has been for a very long time. And we’ve got a wonderful new superintendent there who’s working very hard with the young mayor there to try…

MCCAIN: Who supports vouchers.

OBAMA: … who initiated — actually, supports charters.

MCCAIN: She supports vouchers, also

Her name is Michelle Rhee and she does apparently support vouchers, with reservations.

With all the hot button political talk on education, it's good to see some agreement (almost) by both sides of the aisle on schools.

Governing ran this profile on Rhee last August.

Joe the Plumber: It's the Taxes, Stupid

Ouch.

Joe the Plumber wasn't even an apprentice.  He doesn't have a license, reported The New York Times.

Daily Kos reports he owes back taxes.

It seems Joe is already growing weary of his own 15 seconds of fame.

“I’m kind of like Britney Spears having a headache,” he told The Associated Press on Thursday. “Everybody wants to know about it.”

Republicans obviously didn't vet this one. 

Hail to Joe the Plumber

Joe's going to win this national election.

Joe Wurzelbacher, an Ohio man looking to buy a plumbing business is interviewing Presidential candidates -- and he seems to like the less-tax, more-money-in-your-pocket approach of John McCain than the steal-from-the-rich/give-to-the-poor socialism of Barack Obama.

It's nothing personal.

Just show Joe the Plumber the money.

The Huffington Post reported tonight how John McCain pleaded Joe the Pumber's case:

"You were going to put him in a higher tax bracket which was going to increase his taxes, which was going to cause him not to be able to employ people, which Joe was trying to realize the American dream," McCain said.

The Wall Street Journal viewed the economic plans of both candidates.

"Both candidates' plans are in line with their parties' orthodoxy and their own prior initiatives. Sen. McCain is relying largely on traditional Republican tax cuts. Sen. Obama uses a big government stick -- a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures for banks receiving assistance through the federal rescue plan -- and traditional Democratic talk of keeping jobs in the U.S."

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal also reported today that the market slump has not been slowed -- and loss of fiscal confidence threatens to make matters worse.

McCain Puts Obama On The Spot: CNN

"Sen. Obama, I am not President Bush... You wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

McCain did more than hold his own.  There were a few moments tonight when Barack looked more like a junior Senator than a party's national candidate.

The Wall Street Journal had extensive coverage, including a transcript of the debates.

McCain sounded like a Republican.  Obama sounded like a liberal Democrat.

"Nobody likes taxes," Sen. Obama said in an exchange early in the debate. "But ultimately we've got to pay for the core investments" necessary for the economy.

"If nobody likes taxes, let's not raise anybody's, OK?" Sen. McCain retorted with a laugh.

McCain Provokes Several Sharp Exchanges:  CNN

Another CNN headline; "McCain Puts Obama On The Spot"

FOXNews made it sound like a boxing match: Candidates Hit Hard at Final Presidential Debate

Brother-In-Law Gate Looms For Fey As Palin's Parallel Universe Overtakes SNL

Republican Vice Presidential running mate Tiny Fey will appear on Saturday Night Live 10/25 -- where she is expected to be parodied by SNL's Sarah Palin.

Cindy Adams of the New York Post has the scoop on the Palin/Fey exchange, reported the Los Angeles Times.

Maybe they can have an entire parallel universe episode.

Check out this article in Time Magazine on Tiny Fey .... uh ... Sarah Palin.

OKay ... Someone is having a bit too much fun with this.

Copping Out on the Class War: Blaming the GOP

I can agree that modern conservatism began as "a movement of dissident intellectuals" but there's too much self-loathing in this column by David Brooks in The New York Times on the class war.

I can even agree that Republicans are dumb.  But Democrats are dumber, and this "none of the above" sort of thinking is political scorched earth.

" ... Over the past few decades, the Republican Party has driven away people who live in cities, in highly educated regions and on the coasts. This expulsion has had many causes. But the big one is this: Republican political tacticians decided to mobilize their coalition with a form of social class warfare. Democrats kept nominating coastal pointy-heads like Michael Dukakis so Republicans attacked coastal pointy-heads."

Democrats are still nominating urbane pointy heads.

What's driving people away are higher taxes implemented by Democrats.  People are voting with their feet, moving away or not voting at all.  It may take time before the voter angst is re-focused but it won't be on Republicans.

Maybe this smatters of self-loathing on my own part but a lot of those "highly educated regions and on the coasts" (and academia) are self-entitled elistist lemmings whose politically correct voting patterns have taxed themselves into oblivion.

Like the suburbs of New York City; Westchester County and Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey.

Yeah.  Right here.

We did this to ourselves, not the Republican Party and not middle america.

Why can't the media stop copping out the class war on the GOP -- and take some responsibility for this delusional Greenspan-esque spiral sucking us down?

Silicon Valley, northern Virginia, the suburbs outside of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Raleigh-Durham. The West Coast and the Northeast are "mostly gone" because those liberal elitist sections of the universe were out of touch governmentally -- and won't that be clear in the coming days as California's default ($7 billion!!!) is front page news.

New York is next.

Venom and Volatility: Politics Turned Upside Down

Yesterday, Forbes reported markets watching the LIBOR rate overseas.

By Friday afternoon, Reuters had reported the rate dropping by half -- apparently signaling a thaw in the credit freeze -- but there's no clarity whether this is the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end.  It was the worst week ever for the Dow.

The Street summarized today's volatility.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung violently throughout the session. The Dow suffered a sharp selloff of nearly 700 points early in the session to fall briefly below 8000 for the first time in more than five years. It heaved briefly into positive territory two times, before ending the day down 128 points, or 1.5%, at 8451.19.

The DOW industrial average suffered a loss of 1874 points or 18.2% over the past week, handily above the 16.7% loss from October 1932, and the 13.2% decline completed on Oct. 23, 1987, the week that started with Black Monday.

Politics has been pushed to the side, upstaged by economic realities and its fueling unstable reactions from voters and politicians alike.

Tough week to be a candidate, for sure, and New York's politicians weren't helped by Mike Bloomberg's term limits troubles and the usual budget sniping between bureaucrats.  The people are looking for a target.  They need/want/demand someone to vent their rage upon.  President Bush spoke to the country today -- after an initial positive flurry on Wall Street -- and markets nearly tanked again.

Amid this all stands Obama, an unproven cult of personality whose associations with Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, ACORN and the usual suspects in Congress (and Chicago) make him seem too shady.  The liberals are accusing Republicans of preying to hate, misplaced anger.

The liberals are preying on fear.

John McCain finally told the angry crowds to temper their rage, reported The New York Times.

When a man told him he was “scared” of an Obama presidency, Mr. McCain replied, “I want to be president of the United States and obviously I do not want Senator Obama to be, but I have to tell you — I have to tell you — he is a decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States.” The crowd booed loudly at Mr. McCain’s response.

This is different.

With a little over three weeks left before a nation votes, that rage could be headed anywhere.

Right now, it's aimed at George Bush and the GOP.  It's a dangerous mix of panic and opportunism -- and it's time for Obama to stop fanning the flames of the Dow's drop.

Ever the Wonkette, Ana Marie Cox of Radar Online had a more dire analysis of the hate on the campaign trail.

There's no one left but the hecklers.  Ms. Cox had her own explanation why.

"Because McCain's gonna lose. To a black guy."

It's a political campaign turned upside down.

McCain in a Bear Market: George Will

Food for thought, courtesy of George Will.

Many millions of American households are gingerly opening envelopes containing reports of the third-quarter losses in their 401(k) and other retirement accounts -- telling each household its portion of the nearly $2 trillion that Americans' accounts have recently shed. In this context, the McCain-Palin campaign's attempt to get Americans to focus on Obama's Chicago associations seems surreal -- or, as a British politician once said about criticism he was receiving, "like being savaged by a dead sheep."

It's still the economy, stupid.