News Copy, New York

Conservatives Want Ron Paul As Republican Presidential Candidate: Romney At 22% In CPAC Poll

Ron Paul wins the Presidential Straw Poll at CPAC.

It wasn't even close.  Of course, these are the hardcore conservatives -- though it was a particularly younger crowd.

The Texas Congressman had 31% of the Conservative gathering supporting him (a Daily News poll had him at 80%).
 

Mitt Romney drew only 22% in the CPAC poll, though it was a fragmented vote.

Barack Obama leads Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted right before CPAC. 

As for the rest of CPAC's Presidential Straw Pall, Sarah Palin only managed 7%.  Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, a social liberal, wasn't far behind with 6%.  Indiana Congressman Mike Pence, 5%.  Newt Gingrich only 4%.  Mike Huckabee, a disappointing 4%.  Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (what's up in Indiana?), Rick Santorum and South Dakota Senator John Thune were tied with 2%.  Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (who used to fare well in such straw polls) trailed the pack with 1%.

Considering that Other (5%) and Undecided (6%) combined for 11 percent, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were the only two names that looked remotely competitive among conservatives.

Women were only 30 percent of the nearly 2,400 votes cast at the Conservative Union's Conservative Political Action Conference.

All 50 states, including DC, were represented in the voting. 48 percent were students, 54% between 18-25.

On fiscal issues, the TOP PRIORITY of Republicans in Congress was polled to be: cutting federal spending at 58%,
reducing the federal debt at 23% and cutting federal taxes at 15%.

Jim DeMint (73%), Glenn Beck, who had his fun "scolding" the Republican Party (70%), Rush Limbaugh (70%) and Mike Pence (59%) had the highest favorables.

Nancy Pelosi (94%), Harry Reid (88%) and Republican National Chairman Michael Steele (44%) had the highest unfavorables.

Tea Party Pits Populists Versus Elitists: Since When Has Populism Been The Problem?

Since when is populism a bad thing?

In recent days, news outlets have been deconstructing Sarah Palin as some freak of backward Americanism.  It's as if an entire portion of the United States has been laid out as lacking intelligence or order.

The mainstream media and the autocratic political establishments don't want the masses in control of a movement influencing millions of people.

What's at stake here is centralized control of "the message" -- and this rebellion against elitist control is where the conservatives find common ground with libertarians.

Hotline called Palin's pitch "beer-track populism" -- warning of a Republican rift.

"Palin's elevation of the instinctive wisdom of heartland Americans over the rarefied knowledge of egghead elites, in her speech at the Tea Party convention last weekend, echoed conservative arguments against Democrats dating back to Adlai Stevenson and the 1950s. But it's easy to imagine Palin trying to consolidate beer-track Republicans by directing the same attacks against Romney--a wealthy and modulated former management consultant who radiates expertise from his crisply starched shirts to his imperturbable hair."

A face in the crowd or a brilliant manipulation of the mobs?

Democrats are desperately looking for some language, some angle, to discredit what has risen out of middle-income America.  Though Palin may not always be the best messenger, these generalizations are demeaning and reflect an urban bias against the rest of the country.

David Broder of The Washington Post called it "pitch-perfect populism" -- saying it was time to take Palin seriously.

"Blessed with an enthusiastic audience of conservative activists, Palin used the Tea Party gathering and coverage on the cable networks to display the full repertoire she possesses, touching on national security, economics, fiscal and social policy, and every other area where she could draw a contrast with Barack Obama and point up what Republicans see as vulnerabilities in Washington."

The Seattle Post put forth poll numbers from an ABC poll saying Palin's favorables have "deteriorated significantly" to 37 percent -- and the New York Daily News drew from the same poll that 71% of Americans don't believe she is qualified to be President.

Ouch ... Whipping girl, she is ... but those numbers come from the same news organizations who flocked behind Barack Obama like infatuated fans.  Populists, in this establishment?

More damaging is when columnists like David Brooks picks apart populism as if it is an emotional condition that has always divided the United States, The Populist Addiction.

"The populists have an Us versus Them mentality. If they continue their random attacks on enterprise and capital, they will only increase the pervasive feeling of uncertainty, which is now the single biggest factor in holding back investment, job creation and growth. They will end up discrediting good policies (the Obama bank reforms are quite sensible) because they will persuade the country that the government is in the hands of reckless Huey Longs."

Brooks conveniently forgets about Ronald Reagan, Theodore Roosevelt or perhaps even Robert Kennedy -- as if every spontaneous human fire across America's landscape over the past 200 years has been a bad thing.

It was alright for the people to fawn over Bill Clinton but Brooks would rather compare Sarah Palin to William Jennings Bryan or Huey Long?  Brooks rightfully points to Abraham Lincoln and Alexander Hamilton, as thinkers independent of a popular or reactionary crowd.  But what would pundits say about John Adams or any number of the founders?

Would Ben Franklin be discounted by today's mainstream media due to his adoration of anarchy?  How might Thomas Jefferson fare against such stuffy elitists ignoring his concerns for the common man (as if the naysayers believe the primacy of the individual has no part in this present day populism)?

I hate to borrow from that 1992 campaign but blind fanaticism isn't driving the tea party movement.

It's the economy, stupid.

Palin Resigns: The Ride's Over

Politico reported that Sarah Palin has resigned as Governor of Alaska, as she announced nearly a month ago.

...She offered little insight as to what exactly she was resigning to do.

Closing her remarks she only said, “Let’s all enjoy the ride.”

Can't resist that line from The Candidate.

What do we do now?

Probably nothing.

Daily Kos had a more strategic assessment:

 "She's not gone, though, in all likelihood.  Even if she hasn't yet hit on the precise path to retain her influence and spread her message, she will.  We haven't seen the last of her, probably not for the next quarter-century.  She will always be dangerous and thus will always be a fair target for abuse -- even if that abuse helps energize her base."

And Daily Kos has a poll ... "Now that Sarah Palin is out of office ..."

You won't have Sarah Palin to kick around anymore.

The ride's over.  It's Mike Huckabee's turn to romance the right.

Sarah Palin and Bullwinkle: SNL Shoots the Moose

The Baltimore Sun had this review of Sarah Palin's SNL visit.

SNL Parallel Universe: Here Comes Sarah Palin

How much trouble could Sarah get into?

Palin's headed to SNL:  New York Daily News

Josh Brolin of W. will appear this week too, the AP reported, calling it "a potentially provocative pairing."

Complicated.

Brother-In-Law Gate Looms For Fey As Palin's Parallel Universe Overtakes SNL

Republican Vice Presidential running mate Tiny Fey will appear on Saturday Night Live 10/25 -- where she is expected to be parodied by SNL's Sarah Palin.

Cindy Adams of the New York Post has the scoop on the Palin/Fey exchange, reported the Los Angeles Times.

Maybe they can have an entire parallel universe episode.

Check out this article in Time Magazine on Tiny Fey .... uh ... Sarah Palin.

OKay ... Someone is having a bit too much fun with this.

Copping Out on the Class War: Blaming the GOP

I can agree that modern conservatism began as "a movement of dissident intellectuals" but there's too much self-loathing in this column by David Brooks in The New York Times on the class war.

I can even agree that Republicans are dumb.  But Democrats are dumber, and this "none of the above" sort of thinking is political scorched earth.

" ... Over the past few decades, the Republican Party has driven away people who live in cities, in highly educated regions and on the coasts. This expulsion has had many causes. But the big one is this: Republican political tacticians decided to mobilize their coalition with a form of social class warfare. Democrats kept nominating coastal pointy-heads like Michael Dukakis so Republicans attacked coastal pointy-heads."

Democrats are still nominating urbane pointy heads.

What's driving people away are higher taxes implemented by Democrats.  People are voting with their feet, moving away or not voting at all.  It may take time before the voter angst is re-focused but it won't be on Republicans.

Maybe this smatters of self-loathing on my own part but a lot of those "highly educated regions and on the coasts" (and academia) are self-entitled elistist lemmings whose politically correct voting patterns have taxed themselves into oblivion.

Like the suburbs of New York City; Westchester County and Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey.

Yeah.  Right here.

We did this to ourselves, not the Republican Party and not middle america.

Why can't the media stop copping out the class war on the GOP -- and take some responsibility for this delusional Greenspan-esque spiral sucking us down?

Silicon Valley, northern Virginia, the suburbs outside of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Raleigh-Durham. The West Coast and the Northeast are "mostly gone" because those liberal elitist sections of the universe were out of touch governmentally -- and won't that be clear in the coming days as California's default ($7 billion!!!) is front page news.

New York is next.

Alaska Ethics Panel: Palin "Proper and Lawful"

Over in Time's Swampland, details on Palin's people skills from Alaska's ethics panel:

"I find that, although Walt Monegan's refusal to fire Trooper Michael Wooten was not the sole reason he was fired by Governor Sarah Palin, it was likely a contributing factor to his termination as Commissioner of Public Safety. In spite of that, Governor Palin's firing of Commissioner Monegan was a proper and lawful exercise of her constitutional and statutory authority to hire and fire executive branch department heads."

But the panel still determined Palin "abused her power" as Governor of Alaska.

Which is a roundabout way of saying you should be nice to your former in-laws and their superiors if they work for you, especially if you are a governor of a state.

Conflict of interest, really, and Palin hasn't turned over all those exciting e-mails that will be used in that made-for-tv movie about her life.

It's expected that the media will now hunt for those e-mails (if hackers don't already have them) -- and her former brother-in-law will now get his 15 seconds of fame being interviewed nationwide.

Now we'll find out how "nice" a guy he was ...

... Next!!!

Biden and Palin: It's The Syntax, Stupid

From a linguistics perspective, CNN said the debate was dumbed down.

The analysis noted that the "passive voice can be used to deflect responsibility; Biden used active voice when referring to [Vice President Dick] Cheney and [President] Bush; Palin countered with passive deflections."

CNN relied on The Global Language Monitor out of Austin, Texas.

Vice Presidential Debate
	Biden	Palin	Comment
Grade Level	7.8	9.5	Palin raises a few eyebrows here.
No. of Words	5,492	5235	This is a surprise; shows tremendous restraint on the normally loquacious Biden.  Obama used 20 more words per minute than McCain.
Sentences/Paragraph	2.7	2.6	A statistical tie.
Words/Sentence	15.8	19.9	Palin even outdistances professorial Obama on this one; Obama scored 17.4
Characters/Word	4.4	4.4	Everyone has apparently learned that shorter words are easier to understand (rather than monosylablic words facilitate comprehension).
Passive Voice	5%	8%	Passive voice can be used to deflect responsibility;  Biden used active voice when referring to Cheney and Bush;  Palin countered with passive deflections.
Ease of Reading	66.7	62.4	100 is the easiest to read (or hear).

Here's more on the reading level of past Presidential debates.

House Passes Bailout: It's STILL The Economy, Stupid

William Kristol of The Daily Standard this morning mistakenly ties McCain's fate to the Bailout.

"The situation was made worse by the perception that the GOP (the Bush administration) was both presiding over a financial meltdown and obstructing efforts to deal with it (House Republicans). Republicans lost both ways. If you disliked the bailout, you were angry the Bush administration--and if you thought the bailout necessary, you were angry at the House Republicans. All in all, it was a bad three weeks for the Bush administration and congressional Republicans--and the Republican presidential ticket suffered."

The House passed the bailout 263-171 -- but it's still the economy, stupid.

Palin Winks At America

This is the nonsense that nearly ruined what could have been a better debate.

Saturday Night Live will have a field day.   Courtesy of The Huffington Post.

Siena Poll: McCain/Palin Lose Ground In 'Burbs

Before the debate between Palin and Biden, News Copy's numbers crunchers started sifting through the poll data from Siena College's most recent survey.

This is one instance where the numbers are worse than the spin.

Our focus is more out of the suburbs, where I'm hearing from local and regional races depending on the vote from the soccer moms (and the same wage earners about to be hammered by more layoffs on Wall Street).  In other words, "It's the economy, stupid" -- and it's not good around here.  In addition to now officially being the highest taxed county in the country, the fiscal sinkhole is only a commuter train ride away.

Obama leads McCain 58-36 percent.  That's not unusual for New York State but the numbers in the suburbs aren't pretty.

Obama is ahead 60-31 percent in the sleepy suburbs.  That's Long Island and Westchester, areas that have slipped from being Republican strongholds to bases of power for the Democrats in less than 20 years.

On "Revitalizing the Economy" -- 30 percent of New Yorkers think McCain would be effective and only 37 percent in the suburbs.  Half of suburban voters rated Obama higher and 57 percent statewide.

That means the bleeding on the economy, politically and perception-wise, is happening right here in Westchester County.  And Republicans are getting it right between the eyes, even though Democrats control the County and State governments (who should be held responsible for picking people's pockets).

On the bailout being on people's minds "a great deal" -- nearly 70 percent of suburbanites admitted to "paying attention" (63 percent statewide).

Sarah Palin?

The numbers were painful.

53 percent unfavorables among independent voters.  55 percent unfavorables, women.  58 unfavorables, 55+ age group.

56 percent unfavorables in the suburbs.  Biden had 56 percent FAVORABLES in the same areas.

So the majority of the highest taxed county in America is voting for two liberal "tax and spend" Democrats ...

Liz Benjamin of The Daily News was kind enough to post the cross tabulations on that newspaper's blog The Daily Politics.  The "cross tabs" indicate a familiar story for Republicans in New York.  But Palin and McCain are not resonating with suburban voters and Palin is not resonating with women in this state.

By the way, Palin's still getting good spin from the "talking heads" at this late hour (except George Stefanapolis, whose calling Biden the winner) ...

Let's see where all those negatives go now.

VP Debate: Pundits Pump Palin

The News Copy team cringed a few times watching Palin answer.  I wasn't impressed.  The pundits were being kind.

Local political consultants are looking at the numbers in the New York City suburbs from the Siena Poll (only 39 percent favorables).  It's an awful predicament facing local Republicans who are relying on some bounce from the national ticket.

Tonight was important.

Tom Brokaw spoke well of Palin's performance.  That's something, though everyone else on NBC said it would be a soon-forgotten debate.

On CBS, with Katie Couric moderating (and actually sounding a little "gee wiz" herself), Dee Dee Myers got away with calling Palin "folksy" without anyone correcting her.

What's going on here?  Has everyone in the media and and the Presidential race decided to be "folksy" too?  To some extent, Palin managed to translate her friendly persuasion with enough sound bytes to survive but Biden carried himself well with some control of his notorious emotions.

Pollster Frank Luntz on FOX News is picking the brains of his focus group and a majority of hands were raised when he asked if Palin won the debate.

Larry Kudlow, "At least she got a tie and a tie for Sarah Palin is a win" -- but is a tie for Palin a loss for McCain?

The general consensus -- media-wise -- is that Palin won the debate.  I don't agree and I will be curious what the next poll shows.

Paul Begala on CNN said Palin's mission was to repair her damaged reputation and he believed she succeeded.  That's as good as it gets in this murky media minefield, so I guess the pitbull with lipstick survived her first national debate.

VP Debate: No Earthquakes

Nearly 90 minutes into the VP debate and I wish Sarah Palin would wipe the grin off her face.

And, boy, she can talk fast.  But she's no pitbull tonight.  The gloves aren't coming off and Biden ain't making any gaffes.

Boston Globe's blog Political Intelligence (heh) had a rundown on the debate.

No clear winner, no clear loser and Palin's penchant for "gee whiz" type comments is getting annoying.  Also, Biden's closing rant that John McCain is "no maverick" went uncountered.

Finally, neither candidate spoke enough about cutting taxes.

V.P. Debate: Mud Or Jello Wrestling?

John Neffinger at The Huffington Post had this to say about the expected mud-wrestling contest this evening between Vice-Presidential candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin.

"If you're Joe Biden, are you going to just sit there and let her play you to a draw - or beat you? On the biggest stage Biden has ever been on, is he going to let himself get shown up by someone everybody knows is an idiot? Or does Biden get agitated, and start looking for opportunities to attack, to pin Palin down, to put her in her place? If Biden stops playing it safe, all bets are off. He might be brilliant, but things might also go horribly wrong."

I'm still getting over Biden describing President Franklin Delano Roosevelt addressing the American public on television.

Siena Poll: New York Feeling Blue

Siena (College) Research Institute poll offers some big bad numbers for Democrats. 

Obama's ahead, 58-32 percent, and McCain's support since September has slipped.

In New York, at least, the political wolf is at the door for Republicans.  Nothing new -- but it's getting worse for the GOP ... MUCH worse.  It's the suburban vote and numbers outside New York City that should have local/regional Republican campaigns nervous.

Palin's effectiveness in New York might be on the ropes tonight.

Liz Benjamin at The Daily News has the details. 

Understudy Debate: Can She Do It?

If the consultants have stayed away from her, tonight's debate is going to be a treat.

I can't wait for the first moment Joe Biden snarls and Sarah Palin gives the country a true demonstration of what a hockey mom is ...

But I'm afraid the media has upstaged this national contest so much that some of these talking heads might as well submit their names for consideration.

Here is a link to the CBS debate webcast with Katie Couric.